agip wrote:
this one's for the women in green and Maserati. Vroom Vroom.
Today's econ numbers:
Jobless claims 4 wk average at lowest levels in a long time, stable
Phily Fed shows strong uptick
Bberg consumer confidence shows solid growth
Leading indicators - up a smidge but still lowish
Rubbish. You have no idea what these mean, because you have no idea about either their context or their details.
Stop wasting our time parroting things you don't understand.
Maserati wrote:
agip wrote:this one's for the women in green and Maserati. Vroom Vroom.
Today's econ numbers:
Jobless claims 4 wk average at lowest levels in a long time, stable
Phily Fed shows strong uptick
Bberg consumer confidence shows solid growth
Leading indicators - up a smidge but still lowish
Rubbish. You have no idea what these mean, because you have no idea about either their context or their details.
Stop wasting our time parroting things you don't understand.
Hogwash. I know all there is to know about lightly clothed drunken women in green.
Rocket Scientist wrote:
Just sell before the crash. Why miss out on free money. It's not rocket science.
Perfect.
Tell me when the crash hits and I am all set.
I have no clue.
Rocket Scientist wrote:
I have no clue.
Then why dispense perfectly useless advice?
What, are you an investment advisor or something?
It's not useless advice. Use stops to sell before they fall too far. It's not rocket science.
Rocket,
I hope it turns out as easy as you think. For most people it is not so easy.
Igy
It's actually quite easy. After all, it's not rocket science.
I know that last time rates were raised the markets took a dump, but for some reason I expected the opposite response this time--that is, that if there was no raise, markets would fall, because the decision not to raise would reflect a gloomy scenario. I believed the gloomy scenario and expected no rate increase.
We got no rate increase and the gloomy scenario laid out, but markets have risen on the news. I guess that at this point, borrowing dominates, especially in the form of margin (especially important to investing). Not only is it the biggest factor, it may be effectively the only factor. I underestimated its importance, and have missed out on 500 points of gain.
Good thing that I don't fiddle with the real money on these small issues.
Maserati,
Rest assured that there is a limit to financial interest rate suppression. We are already at the upper threshold of debt for governments, corporations and individuals. There is a strong case for a market that wil be as bad as 2002 and 2008. If the markets ever loses confidence in the ability of central banks to save investors bacon, the pig be committed to make bacon for the Gods of the Market.
"When hubris reigns the market is bountiful in its fruits, only to be swallowed by the bear. For every season, turn, turn."
Igloiastics 01:01
QE ended a while ago.
Try,
Correct, but the Federal Reserve reinvests the proceeds of maturing and continues to purchase Treasuries and Mortgage backed securities. The Federal Reserve balance sheet is $4.4 Trillion.
$4.4 Trillion, what is in your wallet?
Try to keep up.
Igy
The actions of the Fed have much less effect on the markets than you think they do.
Rocket Scientist wrote:
It's actually quite easy. After all, it's not rocket science.
Trend Following.
It really is rocket science, or at least data science, with statistical analysis and backtesting if you want an optimal result. The problem with just setting stops, like 20% and you're out, is that some of the Russell Indices and maybe also the NYSE have hit lows of 24% declines in the last 6 months, and you don't want to get stopped at the bottom and see the market go back up against you.
What you want to do is follow the trend, and detect when the trend reverses. There are a number of trend following systems like 5day/10/day/20day moving average crosses that you can read about on the web. The version I use is 19 week/39 week EMA cross which has been backtested. You go short or long when the moving averages cross, and in my system, there have been 7 signals in the last 20+ years.
Generally, trend following systems make twice as much money as buy-hold by avoiding most of bear markets. You get a copy of Metastock and build/optimize a system until you have something that stands up to backtesting.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Maserati,
Rest assured that there is a limit to financial interest rate suppression. We are already at the upper threshold of debt for governments, corporations and individuals. There is a strong case for a market that wil be as bad as 2002 and 2008. If the markets ever loses confidence in the ability of central banks to save investors bacon, the pig be committed to make bacon for the Gods of the Market.
"When hubris reigns the market is bountiful in its fruits, only to be swallowed by the bear. For every season, turn, turn."
Igloiastics 01:01
The researchers at PIMCO think otherwise. The Recession of 2020:
https://www.pimco.com/insights/economic-and-market-commentary/macro-perspectives/the-recession-of-2020Confessions first: I’m actually not predicting a recession in 2020. Everybody knows that it is impossible to forecast the ups and downs of the business cycle several years ahead. Even six to 12 months ahead, it is extremely difficult to call a recession correctly – in fact, most economists forecast a recession only after it has started
You have nothing in terms of evidence to suggest that there will be a bear market like 2000 or 2008 or that it will happen soon. It could just as easily be a business cycle bottom like 1994. The market in 2000 had PE values MUCH higher than now before the top occurred. People on the political right have been forecasting this "crash" for years now and they have been dead wrong. The main reason there will be no crash for years is that there are waaaaay too many people predicting it.
coach d wrote:
Rocket Scientist wrote:It's actually quite easy. After all, it's not rocket science.
Trend Following.
It really is rocket science, or at least data science, with statistical analysis and backtesting if you want an optimal result. The problem with just setting stops, like 20% and you're out, is that some of the Russell Indices and maybe also the NYSE have hit lows of 24% declines in the last 6 months, and you don't want to get stopped at the bottom and see the market go back up against you.
What you want to do is follow the trend, and detect when the trend reverses. There are a number of trend following systems like 5day/10/day/20day moving average crosses that you can read about on the web. The version I use is 19 week/39 week EMA cross which has been backtested. You go short or long when the moving averages cross, and in my system, there have been 7 signals in the last 20+ years.
Generally, trend following systems make twice as much money as buy-hold by avoiding most of bear markets. You get a copy of Metastock and build/optimize a system until you have something that stands up to backtesting.
agreed that trend following can be successful, but it is very rocky and tests your resolve time and again.
The simplest way to avoid steep falls in stocks is to simply own stocks when they are above the 200 day moving average and not own them when they are below.
That forces you to sell near the top and forces you to buy near the bottom.
but it has many, many false alarms that cost you money.
the benefit is that you aren't left guessing. You don't sell in say 1997 when stocks seem to have skyrocketed and unlikely to rise any more. Then double again, or whatver they did. You are following set rules.
I don't have the discipline yet to follow it. I tried, but the many false sell alarms burned me out.
Is the horizontal line I see on graphs the 200-day moving average, 50-day, or something else?
Investing neophyte wrote:
Is the horizontal line I see on graphs the 200-day moving average, 50-day, or something else?
could be either. You have to specify on most charts which you want. Yahoo finance or bigcharts .
Rocket Scientist wrote:
It's not useless advice. Use stops to sell before they fall too far. It's not rocket science.
But you claim to be a rocket scientist. I would expect that you know that you buy stops on mutual funds?
coach d,
Sorry but a poor stock market or recession has nothing to do nabobs of negativism or the fact way too many people who predict such. By the way there were many people predicting the Tech Bubble and Housing Bubble before it happened. Wall Street and the technicals gave a different view.
In regards to 2000, the NASDAQ composite doubled from October 1999 to March if my recollection is correct. That period is an outlier you can chose to use if you wish. Bottom line is corporate earnings have dropped 18% in a period of 15 months, if that trend continues it matters little what the charts or Pimco's analysts say. If the trend reverses I will be wrong and it has nothing to do with my politics.
Igy