Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Reading polls is not math.
No? Then what are all those numbers and percentages? Not sure what sort of polls you are talking about there Will Hunting
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Reading polls is not math.
No? Then what are all those numbers and percentages? Not sure what sort of polls you are talking about there Will Hunting
democrats are not ever Christians wrote:
Biden to debate while wearing mask.
That’s hilarious!!!!
Democrats are terrified of plandemics.
I'm sure it's because he will keep his talking points on the other side of the mask. So when he nods off, as he is known to do, he can just peak inside and get himself back on track.
Sally Vix wrote:
Gina wrote:
It’s not an either or situation, both things can and IMO are true.
Sally is a moron who trolls.
I find it fascinating that you call me a moron. If you knew me personally you would consider me one of the sharpest guys around.
Just like I have been saying for the last several weeks, Trump has the enthusiasm. Dementia Joe doesn't.
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/518786-abcs-martha-raddatz-says-she-didnt-see-a-lot-of-enthusiasm-for-joe-biden-inTrump wins again.
KAG2020
Biden released his 2019 taxes today.
How hard is that to do?
https://joebiden.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/2019-Biden-Delaware-Virginia-Federal-3.pdf
He was taxed almost $300,000 on $985,000 of income.
democrats are not ever Christians wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
None of those were questions.
Can’t answer them, you disgusting piece of trash.
How do I answer something that is not a question?
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
hoppings wrote:
In other words, Norpoth is incapable of adapting his model to reflect major events in the real world.
The guy is about 80 and it seems he has decided to literally sit on his passed laurels. He is just too old and lazy to fix his ancient model.
Norpoth's model has no value in 2020.
Wrong. Norpoth has a much better presidential prediction record than 538.
Math is really hard for you, isn't it? These are two different kinds of predictions. The records can not be compared.
has anyone pointed out that the 538 forecast for PA has been steadily improving and is up to 79% likely for Joe?
That's a good number eh.
It was only 68% a month ago.
agip wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
CORRECT!
let's add the crimes Reagan and maybe Bush1 committed in Iran Contra - maybe, just maybe, if Nixon and Reagan had been prosecuted for their crimes, Trump wouldn't have been so crimeful.
Oh who am I kidding? The trump family is a one-family crime wave - they'd be crimeing no matter what. It's what they do., who they are.
But still, yes, prosecute crimes by presidents.
Trump is super dumb, and I mean super dumb. We can't protect against a dumb criminal like him, and so prosecuting crimes by Presidents wouldn't have deterred him from his criminal ways. Nixon was for sure vulnerable to criminal prosecution (obviously Ford saved him), but Reagan got away with "plausible deniability". BUT, Steve Bannon is no dummy (not in the way Trump is). Steve Bannon will never be President, but someone like him could come along and assume the Presidency. A person like that would be wise enough to stay out of serious legal trouble and WOULD be reigned in if there is a precedent set of prosecuting a former President.
Flagpole wrote:
agip wrote:
let's add the crimes Reagan and maybe Bush1 committed in Iran Contra - maybe, just maybe, if Nixon and Reagan had been prosecuted for their crimes, Trump wouldn't have been so crimeful.
Oh who am I kidding? The trump family is a one-family crime wave - they'd be crimeing no matter what. It's what they do., who they are.
But still, yes, prosecute crimes by presidents.
Trump is super dumb, and I mean super dumb. We can't protect against a dumb criminal like him, and so prosecuting crimes by Presidents wouldn't have deterred him from his criminal ways. Nixon was for sure vulnerable to criminal prosecution (obviously Ford saved him), but Reagan got away with "plausible deniability". BUT, Steve Bannon is no dummy (not in the way Trump is). Steve Bannon will never be President, but someone like him could come along and assume the Presidency. A person like that would be wise enough to stay out of serious legal trouble and WOULD be reigned in if there is a precedent set of prosecuting a former President.
Besides, you do it to punish AND deter. It also sets a good example for the rest of the country that power and privilege don't let you get away with anything.
Northeast Republican wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
They are all voting for Biden.
And discussing Trump makes their stomach hurt.
Yep. I'm longtime registered Republican. I'm a patriotic military veteran and practicing pro-life Catholic.
I'm voting for Biden.
Trump's divisiveness and autocratic tendencies are the biggest threat to this country.
You are not alone, brother. Good for you.
something may be happening in one of the GA senate races. The one with that horrible loeffler in it.
It's a special election, a jungle primary. No one will get 50%, so there will be a runoff in January 2021 between the two top vote getters.
Anyway, two polls in a row have a new Dem leading the race. A black preacher named Warnock. What seems to be happening is that the two Rs in the race are splitting the vote, so the sitting R won't get 50%.
If a charismatic african american gets on the ballot in January, it could be a surprising election, in a pro-Dem sense.
A problem is that Joe Lieberman's son is taking some D votes from Warnock, so he may not make the runoff.
Worth keeping an eye on.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/georgia-special/
L L wrote:
I think the conversation has changed from whether Trump can win again to how badly will he disrupt the transition of power and will he be convicted for his crimes in 2021.
Of course he can still win, 20% odds are pretty good when you're betting on a horse.
But those other unknowns are a lot more wide open and will preoccupy the nation after November 3rd.
I want to make sure all ballots are counted. Democrats are more likely to mail in their ballots in this election during the pandemic, and several important states will count them up until even 2 weeks after Nov. 3. I really hope there aren't any Republican shenanigans between election day and the counting of all votes that poisons the election. That's my biggest concern. I will be voting early in person because of that, and I know many Democrats who are doing the same.
Sally Vix wrote:
hoppings wrote:
Teacher : Rigged, are you angry?
RIGGED : I'm, like, angry at numbers.
SALLY : There's like, too many of 'em and stuff.
(from a beavis and butthead episode)
Kinda funny but let's not forget that I am a mathematician.
You're pretty good with numbers alright, remember when you measured the deficit in billions? I suspect no one besides biff will believe you.. anyway given the school you were graduated from, claiming you're a mathematician isn't impressive at all.
I don't know who the 'we' is in this tweet, but it sounds like in a runoff situation, warnock could actually beat the Rs.
This is moving fast - only two polls but they are the two most recent polls.
L L wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Trump has 91% odds to win per Norpoth.
Enjoy your loss.
I appreciate the comedy and even will provide a link to back your claim.
http://primarymodel.com/
The Primary Model has some serious flaws, especially for this election. It uses how people did in a primary as its main, really only, factor. Democrats had an extraordinarily large crowd of candidates during the primary season, and Trump, as the incumbent, ran basically unopposed. Norpoth himself has recognized this and said so in a interview that Trump is an unusual candidate and that he might have this wrong.
Sally Vix wrote:
hoppings wrote:
Teacher : Rigged, are you angry?
RIGGED : I'm, like, angry at numbers.
SALLY : There's like, too many of 'em and stuff.
(from a beavis and butthead episode)
Kinda funny but let's not forget that I am a mathematician.
Stop your lying, you outrageously stupid fool! You are not a mathematician. You have a degree in Accounting. You do not have an advanced degree in Mathematics. You are not employed as a Mathematician. Why do you lie all the time? Just quit with that.
“The Russia hoax” was Hillary’s plan?
That’s huge bend over Biff, a game changer. Amazing that Fox News are ignoring this news, amazing.
What’s even more amazing is that Trump still hasn’t locked up Hillary, any idea why?
Northeast Republican wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
Norpoth has found something that has worked 25 of 27 times.
The first problem is, 27 is a really small sample size. The second problem is, most presidential elections are very easy to predict anyway. The third problem is, you can get 50% right by just flipping a coin.
So Norpoth is not very impressive.
Another thing is that it's not really 27 times, because he developed the model in the 90s and first used it in the 1996 election.
Also, although it seems to have worked in 5 of 6 elections, I wonder how much of that is luck as you say. In primaries you usually have an unopposed incumbent on one side, and on the other you have votes being split among a crowded field of challengers, especially in those early primaries. I'm not saying he's wrong, but on the face of it it seems odd that that would make an accurate prediction.
Correct! He developed the model by looking backwards looking for patterns. You start out that way, then you have a winning historical model right from the beginning. It's just not a good logical predictor though...leaves way too many thing out of the equation.
Flagpole wrote:
democrats are not ever Christians wrote:
Can’t answer them, you disgusting piece of trash.
How do I answer something that is not a question?
Hey Flagpole, here is your Russia conspiracy you spent years on. Too bad it was Hillary:
https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1311021129981734912/photo/1Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
How do I answer something that is not a question?
Hey Flagpole, here is your Russia conspiracy you spent years on. Too bad it was Hillary:
https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1311021129981734912/photo/1
this is russian disinformation that republicans in the senate rejected
trump's flunky and unqualified DNI resurrected it for campaign use.
In other words, russian disinformation is being openly passed around by the f'in USA Director of National Intelligence.
Trumpism is national security threat.