Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

johnny99 wrote:

hoppings wrote:

Norpoth: The Primary Model (2020) 91-95% Certain Trump Will Be Re-elected. Caution: The massive disruptions caused by the Coronavirus outbreak may prompt me to revise the forecast.

There have been zero updates since Coronavirus started. Zero updates.

There won't be any updates, because Norpoth's prediction is based entirely on the early primaries and ignores real world events that may impact the electorate. That seems reason enough to doubt Norpoth's accuracy, but his model has been right in 25 of the past 27 elections.

Norpoth, who has studied election primaries going back to 1912, is confident of the math behind his model. While some might suspect that unusual circumstances — e.g., the COVID-19 pandemic and the civil unrest in the wake of the George Floyd killing — might have an unpredictable effect on the election results, Norpoth said those crises have no bearing on his projection.

“My prediction is what I call ‘unconditional final,’” he said. “It does not change. It’s a mathematical model based on things that have happened. The presidential election of 2016 has happened, the primary results are in. I can add in the results of more primaries, but even those numbers have happened and can’t change either.”

agip wrote:

L L wrote:

So that begs the question, is there an honest or intelligent Trump supporter here?

He's gonna get over 60 million votes, there has to be some out there that will simply say they are voting for him because they won't vote for a Democrat.

And not put out falsehoods or outrageous comments or even try to defend him.

the R bubble has made Rs believe that Ds are basically the devil. it's hard to get around. And Ds are starting to think the same about Rs. It's terrible...I hope Joe will make a high priority of trying to fix this rupture. we need a nation without this political hatred.

David French, putting into words the m@ga@ point of view:

They hate us, they lie about us, and they use all the instruments of their power to deprive us of our rights and our livelihoods.

Even worse, in the name of social justice and so-called reproductive freedom, they have legalized killing on a mass scale. In the years since the unelected Supreme Court read a right to abortion into a Constitution that’s utterly silent about the topic, tens of millions of innocent children have died in the womb. And leftists are fanatics about “the right to choose,” resisting even the most modest attempts to restrict the deadly practice—and using their economic power to sanction states that resist.

The left tramples individual liberty. In the name of “tolerance,” they restrict free speech. In the name of “justice,” they limit due process. In the name of “peace,” they seek to limit the fundamental human and constitutional right of self-defense.

And they’ll enlist any means in the ruthless pursuit of these goals. If they have a social media account, they’ll shame and humiliate you online. If they own a company, they’ll impose economic punishments on states, cities, and towns. If they run a university, they’ll openly discriminate against conservative and Christian students and faculty. They’ll harass people in restaurants. They’ll harass people at movie theaters. They’ll harass people in their own homes.

Leftist anger breeds violence. Remember the flames in Ferguson, Baltimore, and Charlotte? Remember the police officers ambushed in Dallas and Baton Rouge? Did you see antifa beating journalists? And who can forget the angry leftist who almost changed history with his attempted massacre of Republican congressmen on a Virginia baseball field?

And now they disrespect the constitutional order. They abused the counterintelligence surveillance powers to obtain a warrant against a former campaign aide, they used a fake dossier full of Russian disinformation to spread conspiracy theories and undermine public trust in the president, and then they rushed to impeach that same president for—at worst—a minor diplomatic mistake, one that was corrected before any harm was done.

democrats are not ever Christians wrote:

agip wrote:

the R bubble has made Rs believe that Ds are basically the devil. it's hard to get around. And Ds are starting to think the same about Rs. It's terrible...I hope Joe will make a high priority of trying to fix this rupture. we need a nation without this political hatred.

David French, putting into words the m@ga@ point of view:

They hate us, they lie about us, and they use all the instruments of their power to deprive us of our rights and our livelihoods.

Even worse, in the name of social justice and so-called reproductive freedom, they have legalized killing on a mass scale. In the years since the unelected Supreme Court read a right to abortion into a Constitution that’s utterly silent about the topic, tens of millions of innocent children have died in the womb. And leftists are fanatics about “the right to choose,” resisting even the most modest attempts to restrict the deadly practice—and using their economic power to sanction states that resist.

The left tramples individual liberty. In the name of “tolerance,” they restrict free speech. In the name of “justice,” they limit due process. In the name of “peace,” they seek to limit the fundamental human and constitutional right of self-defense.

And they’ll enlist any means in the ruthless pursuit of these goals. If they have a social media account, they’ll shame and humiliate you online. If they own a company, they’ll impose economic punishments on states, cities, and towns. If they run a university, they’ll openly discriminate against conservative and Christian students and faculty. They’ll harass people in restaurants. They’ll harass people at movie theaters. They’ll harass people in their own homes.

Leftist anger breeds violence. Remember the flames in Ferguson, Baltimore, and Charlotte? Remember the police officers ambushed in Dallas and Baton Rouge? Did you see antifa beating journalists? And who can forget the angry leftist who almost changed history with his attempted massacre of Republican congressmen on a Virginia baseball field?

And now they disrespect the constitutional order. They abused the counterintelligence surveillance powers to obtain a warrant against a former campaign aide, they used a fake dossier full of Russian disinformation to spread conspiracy theories and undermine public trust in the president, and then they rushed to impeach that same president for—at worst—a minor diplomatic mistake, one that was corrected before any harm was done.

David French is accurate. You hate the Truth.

Patriotic Americans will be rounding up democrats and charging them with treason while celebrating victory.

hoppings wrote:

johnny99 wrote:

There won't be any updates, because Norpoth's prediction is based entirely on the early primaries and ignores real world events that may impact the electorate. That seems reason enough to doubt Norpoth's accuracy, but his model has been right in 25 of the past 27 elections.

Norpoth, who has studied election primaries going back to 1912, is confident of the math behind his model. While some might suspect that unusual circumstances — e.g., the COVID-19 pandemic and the civil unrest in the wake of the George Floyd killing — might have an unpredictable effect on the election results, Norpoth said those crises have no bearing on his projection.

“My prediction is what I call ‘unconditional final,’” he said. “It does not change. It’s a mathematical model based on things that have happened. The presidential election of 2016 has happened, the primary results are in. I can add in the results of more primaries, but even those numbers have happened and can’t change either.”

In other words, Norpoth is incapable of adapting his model to reflect major events in the real world.

The guy is about 80 and it seems he has decided to literally sit on his passed laurels. He is just too old and lazy to fix his ancient model.

Norpoth's model has no value in 2020.

Northeast Republican wrote:

Fat hurts wrote:

Norpoth has found something that has worked 25 of 27 times.

The first problem is, 27 is a really small sample size. The second problem is, most presidential elections are very easy to predict anyway. The third problem is, you can get 50% right by just flipping a coin.

So Norpoth is not very impressive.

Another thing is that it's not really 27 times, because he developed the model in the 90s and first used it in the 1996 election.

Also, although it seems to have worked in 5 of 6 elections, I wonder how much of that is luck as you say. In primaries you usually have an unopposed incumbent on one side, and on the other you have votes being split among a crowded field of challengers, especially in those early primaries. I'm not saying he's wrong, but on the face of it it seems odd that that would make an accurate prediction.

hoppings wrote:

johnny99 wrote:

There won't be any updates, because Norpoth's prediction is based entirely on the early primaries and ignores real world events that may impact the electorate. That seems reason enough to doubt Norpoth's accuracy, but his model has been right in 25 of the past 27 elections.

Norpoth, who has studied election primaries going back to 1912, is confident of the math behind his model. While some might suspect that unusual circumstances — e.g., the COVID-19 pandemic and the civil unrest in the wake of the George Floyd killing — might have an unpredictable effect on the election results, Norpoth said those crises have no bearing on his projection.

“My prediction is what I call ‘unconditional final,’” he said. “It does not change. It’s a mathematical model based on things that have happened. The presidential election of 2016 has happened, the primary results are in. I can add in the results of more primaries, but even those numbers have happened and can’t change either.”

In other words, Norpoth is incapable of adapting his model to reflect major events in the real world.

The guy is about 80 and it seems he has decided to literally sit on his passed laurels. He is just too old and lazy to fix his ancient model.

Norpoth's model has no value in 2020.