Flagpole wrote:
Just Another Hobby Jogger wrote:
I could not agree more. Giving Nixon a blanket pardon was probably the worst thing Ford did. Trump should be punished as severely as allowed under the law to send a strong message to future presidents.
CORRECT!
let's add the crimes Reagan and maybe Bush1 committed in Iran Contra - maybe, just maybe, if Nixon and Reagan had been prosecuted for their crimes, Trump wouldn't have been so crimeful.
Oh who am I kidding? The trump family is a one-family crime wave - they'd be crimeing no matter what. It's what they do., who they are.
But still, yes, prosecute crimes by presidents.
Fat hurts wrote:
agip wrote:
why can't we have any reasonable Republicans on this thread? Are there any reasonable Republicans out there? Hello?
They are all voting for Biden.
And discussing Trump makes their stomach hurt.
Yep. I'm longtime registered Republican. I'm a patriotic military veteran and practicing pro-life Catholic.
I'm voting for Biden.
Trump's divisiveness and autocratic tendencies are the biggest threat to this country.
I think the conversation has changed from whether Trump can win again to how badly will he disrupt the transition of power and will he be convicted for his crimes in 2021.
Of course he can still win, 20% odds are pretty good when you're betting on a horse.
But those other unknowns are a lot more wide open and will preoccupy the nation after November 3rd.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Dementia Joe's campaign agreed to an inspection for electronic ear pieces at tonight’s debate several days ago but are now declining. More proof he can’t debate without being fed answers due to his dementia. He is also requesting breaks every 30 minutes.
flesh colored earpiece:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ei8ZMgaUwAAaKjS?format=jpg&name=240x240https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ei8ZMgdVoAEHohO?format=jpg&name=240x240
A) Can't see anything on those photos which, given your track record, are almost certainly doctored.
B) A 77 year old guy with a hearing aid is now news? Almost as shocking as Obama's tan suit.
L L wrote:
I think the conversation has changed from whether Trump can win again to how badly will he disrupt the transition of power and will he be convicted for his crimes in 2021.
Of course he can still win, 20% odds are pretty good when you're betting on a horse.
But those other unknowns are a lot more wide open and will preoccupy the nation after November 3rd.
Wrong. Trump has 91% odds to win per Norpoth.
Enjoy your loss.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EjF4P7oWAAEJzRp?format=jpg&name=smallNortheast Republican wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
They are all voting for Biden.
And discussing Trump makes their stomach hurt.
Yep. I'm longtime registered Republican. I'm a patriotic military veteran and practicing pro-life Catholic.
I'm voting for Biden.
Trump's divisiveness and autocratic tendencies are the biggest threat to this country.
Enjoy your loss.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Nate Silver's biggest flaw is that he pushes the left narrative that polls are real.
Anything that has to do with math and science is not real.
Math is hard for you. Therefore, it must be fake.
Great response ! I hope Trump uses his worn out "turned the corner" line tonight. Or he may use his "Herd mentality " term ?!? The fact that we never or even started a Virus National plan brings up Negligent Homicide ! The tax bombshell is just Bad Karma coming back to Trump.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Trump has 91% odds to win per Norpoth.
Enjoy your loss.
I appreciate the comedy and even will provide a link to back your claim.
http://primarymodel.com/Fat hurts wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Nate Silver's biggest flaw is that he pushes the left narrative that polls are real.
Anything that has to do with math and science is not real.
Math is hard for you. Therefore, it must be fake.
Teacher : Rigged, are you angry?
RIGGED : I'm, like, angry at numbers.
SALLY : There's like, too many of 'em and stuff.
(from a beavis and butthead episode)
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
L L wrote:
I think the conversation has changed from whether Trump can win again to how badly will he disrupt the transition of power and will he be convicted for his crimes in 2021.
Of course he can still win, 20% odds are pretty good when you're betting on a horse.
But those other unknowns are a lot more wide open and will preoccupy the nation after November 3rd.
Wrong. Trump has 91% odds to win per Norpoth.
Enjoy your loss.
Norpoth's model is interesting, but I'm not sure if it's anything more than taking the incumbency advantage and dressing it up as an academic model. It all boils down to the reality that incumbents have a big advantage and more often than not get re-elected. The two elections where he's missed have both lacked an incumbent (1960 and 2000).
It makes no sense to weigh early primaries more than later primaries, and makes no sense to use a primary model at all considering that incumbents rarely get seriously challenged in the primaries. He basically validates his model based on it's accuracy in predicting outcomes, but if you simply picked the incumbent every time there was an incumbent and flipped a coin the other times you'd come up with similar results.
So, if you want to argue that Trump is going to win because he's the incumbent and incumbents usually win, go ahead. But I'd still bet on Biden at this point.
L L wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Trump has 91% odds to win per Norpoth.
Enjoy your loss.
I appreciate the comedy and even will provide a link to back your claim.
Norpoth: The Primary Model (2020) 91-95% Certain Trump Will Be Re-elected. Caution: The massive disruptions caused by the Coronavirus outbreak may prompt me to revise the forecast.
There have been zero updates since Coronavirus started. Zero updates.
sense and sensible wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
“No of course I didn’t bang your sister, and you should not have invaded my privacy by walking in on us.”
That would have made a lot more sense if you had used "wife" rather than "sister".
It’s a husband to wife quote
agip wrote:
must read piece for the anti-trump forces. there are tens of millions of magas who don't know any democrats and therefore think trump will win in a landslide, who think the dems are ruthless rule-breakers, who think the only way trump loses is if the Dems cheat, etc. The nation is doomed unless we can bring these people back in from the cold. They are going to be dumbstruck and then very very angry if Biden wins and the senate flips.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/29/us/politics/trump-power-transfer-republicans.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Unfortunately Hillary was right about the deplorables. Not much can be done about most of those folks unfortunately, especially the less educated ones.
agip wrote:
Gina wrote:
Ditto, I don’t take the time even read Sally. It’s a repeat loop anyway.
why can't we have any reasonable Republicans on this thread? Are there any reasonable Republicans out there? Hello?
They have become the silent minority unfortunately
So that begs the question, is there an honest or intelligent Trump supporter here?
He's gonna get over 60 million votes, there has to be some out there that will simply say they are voting for him because they won't vote for a Democrat.
And not put out falsehoods or outrageous comments or even try to defend him.
hoppings wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
Anything that has to do with math and science is not real.
Math is hard for you. Therefore, it must be fake.
Teacher : Rigged, are you angry?
RIGGED : I'm, like, angry at numbers.
SALLY : There's like, too many of 'em and stuff.
(from a beavis and butthead episode)
Kinda funny but let's not forget that I am a mathematician.
hoppings wrote:
L L wrote:
I appreciate the comedy and even will provide a link to back your claim.
Norpoth: The Primary Model (2020) 91-95% Certain Trump Will Be Re-elected. Caution: The massive disruptions caused by the Coronavirus outbreak may prompt me to revise the forecast.
There have been zero updates since Coronavirus started. Zero updates.
There won't be any updates, because Norpoth's prediction is based entirely on the early primaries and ignores real world events that may impact the electorate. That seems reason enough to doubt Norpoth's accuracy, but his model has been right in 25 of the past 27 elections.
Norpoth, who has studied election primaries going back to 1912, is confident of the math behind his model. While some might suspect that unusual circumstances — e.g., the COVID-19 pandemic and the civil unrest in the wake of the George Floyd killing — might have an unpredictable effect on the election results, Norpoth said those crises have no bearing on his projection.
“My prediction is what I call ‘unconditional final,’” he said. “It does not change. It’s a mathematical model based on things that have happened. The presidential election of 2016 has happened, the primary results are in. I can add in the results of more primaries, but even those numbers have happened and can’t change either.”