Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

L L wrote:

Just Another Hobby Jogger wrote:

Many people who voted for Obama stayed home in 2016.

Many people who stayed home in 2008 and 2012 voted for Trump.

Swing states swing because a small change in turnout by either side changes the outcome.

There are actually very few "swing voters" who vote for different parties in each election.

So what happens if voter turnout is way up across the board?

Biden will get more votes in Ohio than Trump got last time.

The question is will Trump get more that?

I think the vote total everywhere is going to be way up.

Which ever candidate who mobilizes more votes than the other side wins. That's why complacency is the biggest enemy.

I don't know about Ohio, but many people who voted for Trump in 2016 have passed away. Most people who got the voting rights in the last four years (either young adults or newly naturalized citizens) are Biden voters. So Trump has to mobilize even harder just to get the same number.

You are insane. No chance that Trump wins MN or NH or AZ. Trump might win FL, but the odds are still that Biden wins FL. You are the dumbest person I have ever encountered.

334 for Biden minimum.

Enjoy your loss.

Sally Vix wrote:

Smorbun wrote:

Irrelevant and a strawman quote. Where is all this evidence that professors shove their world view down the throats of students? Professors are both liberal and conservative. There is a whole type of college that is conservative only. What does that idiotic quote even mean? Who says students buy what professors say anyway? I had a couple of professors, one in philosophy, one in history, in undergrad who were as conservative as could be, and they didn't sway me one bit. That whole idea is crap.

Liberal professors outnumber conservative one by nearly 12 to 1.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/oct/6/liberal-professors-outnumber-conservatives-12-1/

Nope. The Washington Times? Really? Go away, you wife-berating moron loser.

He looks fvcking ridiculous, does nobody tell him?

A weird insecure excuse for a man.

Sally Vix wrote:

Trollminator wrote:

Need one more of diaper don Biff?

https://images.app.goo.gl/zq4xYHZdSpe87aKs6

Pretty weird that you are the only male here who focused on his crotch area multiple times. Creepy even.

You are an a$$hole. You were checking out the likely next Supreme Court Justice and first thing you did was comment negatively on her looks, you misogynist. Go away you loser.

You still can't back up your numbers and then sink to name calling. Learn how to debate. Pulling numbers out of your a$$ is very dumb.

Trump has gotten support from 6 dem mayors in the Iron Range of MN. These are rural areas where mining is big. Trump has benefited that industry bigly and GOP voter registration has increased as well. Cankles had a small margin of victory in 2016. Trump has a great opportunity to flip MN red. It has been blue since 1972.

NH barely went to Hillary in 2016. Dementia Joe's NH primary numbers were awful- he came in 5th place and he never did well there in past primaries years ago. Trump will flip it red. Norpoth's model & past data will confirm this.

Just keep trusting in Nate Silver and look out for the inevitabke excuse making when his glorified poll readings fail him again.

This election will not end in your favor.

I've said what states Biden will win. I've done the math. Trump will not gain any states he lost last time.

Biden will flip AZ, MI, PA, WI, NC and FL and will take all of ME.

Beyond the ones I mentioned above, there are only 4 other states that could go either way, and Biden will probably get at least one of them: OH, GA, IA, TX. Good chance Biden wins OH, 50-50 chance of winning IA, less of a chance of winning GA and TX.

OH: Biden leads in the polls there.

GA: Biden is barely behind.

IA: Tied and considered a toss up.

TX: Biden within margin of error which is insane for TX.

334 minimum for Biden. You are beyond nuts to think Trump can win MN and NH.

Biden wins if he is breathing.

Enjoy your loss.

Conservative con artists is trouble, you love to see it.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/sealed-docs-fbi-investigating-jacob-191934037.html

Gina wrote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5axgsXtwHMc

Lol “I’ve never heard of category 5”

And what he said at the end, yeah but tzees really want it to get worse since libs may get owned even more, the whole country be dammed.

Gina wrote:

Conservative con artists is trouble, you love to see it.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/sealed-docs-fbi-investigating-jacob-191934037.html

Lock these bozos the fck up

Rigged doesn't like polls or pundits....unless they show Trump winning....

If you look at Biden right now he is polling better than Clinton in 2016. In close states he is doubling the poll lead Clinton had. This is important because his leads are outside the polling error AND even worse for Trump is that Biden is polling closer than any candidate in recent memory in GOP "locks" such as TX and GA.

Everything looks to be shifting to the left by around 2-3%.

Push 2% from 2016 and these states flip:

MI

PA

WI

NC

AZ

FL

Biden will take 320 and has an outside chance of 350.

As much as Rigged likes to talk crap about polls they got it right in 2016. The results were within the standard polling error and/or understated the 3rd party protest vote.

The Runningart2004 Challenge of 2020.....will be won....by me....you are welcome.....

Sadly.....I do not enjoy where the GOP or the Dems are going. In my opinion our system works best when it is forced to compromise. Bring back the 60 vote rule. Bring back ALL the rules that enforced compromise.

Alan

So if you reject the polling data which on average across polls has Biden up about +8% MN, +6% NH, and a little under +3% AZ what evidence would convince you it isn't looking great for Trump in those states?

I like this range of 320-350. Even FOX has decided to get real on trump’s chances. They aren’t going to admit anything beyond showing Biden leading of course. Whereas a trump win in 2016 was still somewhere in the fatter side of the tail this time it’s going to be all the way out there. Polling error will have to be massive across the board. Almost no one is worried about this anymore, even Trump has pretty much conceded with his talk of election meddling. He knows he can’t win without cheating and is trying hard to prime the base. We will see a whole new level of desperation right after Biden’s debate bump.

After all that’s happened in the last 4 years, 60 million dolts are still going to vote for Trump. What does that tell you about the chances of someone like Biff maybe finally seeing the light? Biff is basically gearing up to justify trump’s cheating. On election night, we will see Biff jumping the gun on victory and then trying to explain later that without the millions of fraudulent ballots he was right all along, and then he’ll point to the fact that trump refuses to leave as evidence that he won.

Primary models have an exponentially more accurate record of prediction than polls. Historically speaking, it would be unheard of for Trump to lose with all the primary records he shattered (including Obama's).

Trump's uncontested primary numbers are 3 times greater than Obama 2012 or GWB 2004. The LR lib echo chamber treats Nate Silver as the presidential election guru. Far from it. He blew it in 2016. He’s a poll reader/aggregator and he only chooses the polls that fit his ideology. If a “model” changes its ratings every time a new slew of polls come out, it’s not a model. It’s a glorified poll-reading operation which is EXACTLY what Nate Silver does.

Norpoth is the true presidential election guru. Trafalgar was the only pollster to predict 306 EV for Trump in 2016. Norpoth called for a Trump victory in 2016 and will be correct again this Nov.

If Dementia Joe was leading in any REAL metrics like enthusiasm, primary returns, crowd size, ground game/field offices, then I would be concerned about Trump losing.

Worth noting that in scientific research fields, a response rate below 60% is considered unreliable data and discarded. Average political poll response rate is right around 5%.

Nate ? Silver is wrong & will lose again.

Norpoth is going to keep his winning streak.

Trump is going to get 313 EV, minimum

Sourpole & Runningart will self ban forever

The LR lib echo chamber will meltdown.

I will be correct AGAIN..

Enjoy your loss.

KAG2020

we hit one million deaths from covid.

lesson 1: Do not eat bats

lesson 2: South Korea had a per capita death toll of 8 per million. Our per capita death total is 632 per million. Trump's inaction is responsible for a good amount of that. Trump's inaction is responsible for tens of thousands of deaths, and it will only get worse as FL opens up.

4% of the population, 20% of the deaths. And we are a rich nation. Only Spain has done worse than us, of large, rich peer nations.

And there is a good chance of reelecting the monster who led to this slaughter.

NYT apparently got a hold of Trump's taxes.

It's bad. He's a terrible businessman who doesn't pay any taxes and is facing giant debts.

Donald J. Trump paid $750 in federal income taxes the year he won the presidency. In his first year in the White House, he paid another $750.

He had paid no income taxes at all in 10 of the previous 15 years — largely because he reported losing much more money than he made.

As the president wages a re-election campaign that polls say he is in danger of losing, his finances are under stress, beset by losses and hundreds of millions of dollars in debt coming due that he has personally guaranteed. Also hanging over him is a decade-long audit battle with the Internal Revenue Service over the legitimacy of a $72.9 million tax refund that he claimed, and received, after declaring huge losses. An adverse ruling could cost him more than $100 million.

The tax returns that Mr. Trump has long fought to keep private tell a story fundamentally different from the one he has sold to the American public. His reports to the I.R.S. portray a businessman who takes in hundreds of millions of dollars a year yet racks up chronic losses that he aggressively employs to avoid paying taxes. Now, with his financial challenges mounting, the records show that he depends more and more on making money from businesses that put him in potential and often direct conflict of interest with his job as president.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/27/us/donald-trump-taxes.html?fbclid=IwAR1NRqBafC8qmkK35v32KGbgczRuzB2nS6qdUFBnigMzQQ4gtsC5jqPy6rA

Trump is going to stela the election:

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/