Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

The pettiness never ends

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1309476575348490243?s=20

Let me reiterate: Both 538 and RCP have Biden ahead in Ohio.

Which is amazing in itself, and even better when you extrapolate to similar states like PA and WI.

Trollminator wrote:

agip wrote:

sally's call was outstanding. There's no way to say it wasn't a great call, unless you resort to nitpicking.

When you throw wild predictions out there at some point you'll be close to right. What about the several he made before and after that were completely off? His batting avg is not good.

fair

agip wrote:

Let me reiterate: Both 538 and RCP have Biden ahead in Ohio.

Which is amazing in itself, and even better when you extrapolate to similar states like PA and WI.

Georgia is the next in line to fall.

If we can win Georgia we can flip two senate seats.

Fat hurts wrote:

agip wrote:

Let me reiterate: Both 538 and RCP have Biden ahead in Ohio.

Which is amazing in itself, and even better when you extrapolate to similar states like PA and WI.

Georgia is the next in line to fall.

If we can win Georgia we can flip two senate seats.

Georgia Senate will be extremely difficult to flip as the GOP contender is a very popular college football coach... football and right-winger views, hard to beat. Plus he's an outsider. But this really speaks volumes of how much Biden is favored by minorities and white suburban females. There are some fascinating survey stats across difference states showing the white male to female contrast -almost mirroring each other in blowout numbers for Trump and Biden.

Trollminator wrote:

Fat hurts wrote:

Georgia is the next in line to fall.

If we can win Georgia we can flip two senate seats.

Georgia Senate will be extremely difficult to flip as the GOP contender is a very popular college football coach... football and right-winger views, hard to beat. Plus he's an outsider. But this really speaks volumes of how much Biden is favored by minorities and white suburban females. There are some fascinating survey stats across difference states showing the white male to female contrast -almost mirroring each other in blowout numbers for Trump and Biden.

true, and a side story is that white male no college types are going with Biden much more than they went with HRC. Biden is undermining Trump's base, right where it hurts.

Plus seniors are now voting Democratic, which I believe is very very rare.

Trollminator wrote:

Fat hurts wrote:

Georgia is the next in line to fall.

If we can win Georgia we can flip two senate seats.

Georgia Senate will be extremely difficult to flip as the GOP contender is a very popular college football coach... football and right-winger views, hard to beat. Plus he's an outsider. But this really speaks volumes of how much Biden is favored by minorities and white suburban females. There are some fascinating survey stats across difference states showing the white male to female contrast -almost mirroring each other in blowout numbers for Trump and Biden.

You are thinking of Alabama.

Senator Kelly Loeffler was never a football coach. Maybe she was a cheerleader? :-)

You are right that it's going to be hard to flip both of those seats. But Ossoff is polling strongly against Perdue. There is a decent chance of getting at least one of the seats if we get a super turnout.

Trollminator wrote:

Fat hurts wrote:

Georgia is the next in line to fall.

If we can win Georgia we can flip two senate seats.

Georgia Senate will be extremely difficult to flip as the GOP contender is a very popular college football coach... football and right-winger views, hard to beat. n.

I believe you are thinking of Alabama.

GA is a weird double senate election...Rs are likely to win both of those for different reasons.

I was going to say, multiple SEC states are going with football coaches.

Democrats are going to lose a Senator in Alabama.

But gaining two in Georgia is not impossible, though not likely.

I'd be surprised if Biden loses Ohio (legitimately).

I expect him to win only deep red states.

If dems win the senate, it will likely be flips in

ME

NC

AZ

CO

IA

minus a loss in AL

plus, if it's 50/50 veep harris would make the senate blue.

L L wrote:

I'd be surprised if Biden loses Ohio (legitimately).

I expect him to win only deep red states.

yeah? honestly it's hard for me to believe FL and OH will go to Biden. But I tend to overweight continuity. I just can't imagine so many people flipping their votes from election to election. But yeah they do.

As many have pointed out, so many purple states are right on the razors edge...could be 400 electoral votes for Biden, could be 270. And the popular vote would be virtually identical: Biden +4 or Biden +5.

L L wrote:

I'd be surprised if Biden loses Ohio (legitimately).

I expect him to win only deep red states.

I expect Trump to only win deep red states, that is.

I gotta think that anyone who isn't locked into a party has to look at Trump and say we need to do better.

If it's swingable, it has to swing away from Trump.

Well, what about Trump's presidency makes people in Ohio and Florida that voted for Obama then Trump make them want to stick with Trump over Biden?

Oabama won those states twice.

Trump had an effective anti Hillary campaign in 2016 with them.

He can't run that campaign now. He can't run on what his presidency would look like.

They vote on what his presidency now has been and what they think of Biden.

agip wrote:

As many have pointed out, so many purple states are right on the razors edge...could be 400 electoral votes for Biden, could be 270. And the popular vote would be virtually identical: Biden +4 or Biden +5.

Though I don't agree with agip on every subject, I think s/he says a lot of things that are correct.

This is one. I think the Electoral College could be a *very* solid win for Trump; a runaway for Biden; or something very, very close--and with about the same popular-vote outcome each time.

formerly present wrote:

agip wrote:

As many have pointed out, so many purple states are right on the razors edge...could be 400 electoral votes for Biden, could be 270. And the popular vote would be virtually identical: Biden +4 or Biden +5.

Though I don't agree with agip on every subject, I think s/he says a lot of things that are correct.

This is one. I think the Electoral College could be a *very* solid win for Trump; a runaway for Biden; or something very, very close--and with about the same popular-vote outcome each time.

this is, btw, one of the justifications for the EC...that it tends to exaggerate wins...which confers a mandate on the winner. It's easier to accept a new prez when he won the EC 320-220 or whatever...than a 49%-45% win of the popular vote which seems much closer.

agip wrote:

this is, btw, one of the justifications for the EC...that it tends to exaggerate wins...which confers a mandate on the winner. It's easier to accept a new prez when he won the EC 320-220 or whatever...than a 49%-45% win of the popular vote which seems much closer.

Well 2000 kills that justification.

Bush had an EC win of 271-267 with Gore winning the popular vote by 500,000 votes or half a percentage point.

There was a lot of talk about Florida but really New Hampshire's 4 electoral votes gave Bush the win.

NH voted for the Democrat presidential candidate in every election from 1992 to 2016, except for 2000.

It would have been a 271-267 EC for Gore.

One of the justifications for the EC is that it is easier to come to a conclusion without counting every single vote.

You have one candidate in Alabama with a 30,000 vote lead with 20,000 votes left to count and you give that candidate Alabama and all of its electoral votes.

You have another candidate in California with a million vote lead and 500,00 votes left to count and give that candidate California and all of its electoral votes.

If you count every single vote in the US, it takes longer to come to a conclusion.

They like shading those states on the board instead of waiting for a single final combined tally.

agip wrote:

formerly present wrote:

Though I don't agree with agip on every subject, I think s/he says a lot of things that are correct.

This is one. I think the Electoral College could be a *very* solid win for Trump; a runaway for Biden; or something very, very close--and with about the same popular-vote outcome each time.

this is, btw, one of the justifications for the EC...that it tends to exaggerate wins...which confers a mandate on the winner. It's easier to accept a new prez when he won the EC 320-220 or whatever...than a 49%-45% win of the popular vote which seems much closer.

I think that's the only valid argument I've ever heard in favor of the EC.

But it doesn't by any means outweigh the simple fact that everyone's vote for president should count equally. And you never get that with the EC.