Down goes the Dow

Maserati,

Welcome back. to brighten up the conversation sub-prime auto loan delinquencies at a two decade high:

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/subprime-auto-delinquencies-at-two-decade-high/

Plus I bought my first car in 14 years. Market top for sure.

Igy

Come on Igy, those car loans are what's keeping everything going! Not just here, but in Canada as well.

Not only are the delinquencies at a high here, the actual number of loans is also high, I believe.

There is a "walk-away" mentality that is beginning to pervade certain social strata, and it is particularly evident in car loans. People get the car, and get financing, with absolutely no intention of ever paying. They have it for a while, it takes people a while to catch up, and they don't care because they are judgment-proof. Just as in non-recourse mortgage states, they figure it's OK because the lessor/lender "gets their property back", "so, whatever."

No surprise at all that the delinquencies are rising, and are currently at a high level.

Here's something that cuts through the headline bullcrap: what has happened to farmland prices? Usually they follow farm commodity prices. We haven't really heard anything about either.

Maserati,

Don't forget all the auto credit in the junk bond market. It is more than energy bonds.

in regards to the mentality, I see all these "thirty somethings " driving BMWs and Landrovers. Some of them can afford it, but my god the numbers.

Something phony there for sure.

Igy

Yes, some can afford it. There is a lot of money out there.

It's not just 30-somethings, it is also, believe it or not, some retirees, and everybody in-between. It's people who haven't participated in the decade of asset inflation we have had.

I saw some figures somewhere that indicated that the oil patch was responsible for the recent huge numbers, and I wouldn't doubt it.

Mango Jerry wrote:

Has anyone else noticed that Igy and Slip (aka K5) tend to show up at the same times? And that both have that "holier than thou" attitude and never admit when they're wring?

There's your troll, folks. Ignore him.

Actually slip and mango jerry are the same -- me -- while igy is not.

Sally V is the poor SOB who imitates everyone else.

He can be easily identified by the absence of quality in his writing along with his juvenile and nasty tone.

OK, Sally V is actually a "he." The Caitlyn Jenner of Down goes the Dow.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

OK, Sally V is actually a "he." The Caitlyn Jenner of Down goes the Dow.

Igy

It seems highly unlikely that this obnoxious untermenschen is a she.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

You are just plain weird.

Better than being a dishonest, character flawed eunuch like yourself.

Slip wrote:

Mango Jerry wrote:

Has anyone else noticed that Igy and Slip (aka K5) tend to show up at the same times? And that both have that "holier than thou" attitude and never admit when they're wring?

There's your troll, folks. Ignore him.

Actually slip and mango jerry are the same -- me -- while igy is not.

Sally V is the poor SOB who imitates everyone else.

He can be easily identified by the absence of quality in his writing along with his juvenile and nasty tone.

Whoa, hold on there, buddy. You and I are NOT the same. Nice try at diverting attention from yourself, but it didn't work.

Interestingly, we once again have a flurry of posts from both Igy and Slip/K5. It's pretty obvious who the troll is.

HOW MANY TIMES DO I HAVE TO TELL EVERYONE THAT NUMBERS ARE MANUFACTURED FOR POLITICAL AND INSIDE TRADING PURPOSES.

BLS said +0.2% (+/-0.5%), giving a lower bound of -0.3%

Now a revised figure of -0.4% is released. I haven't yet found the BLS publication, so I don't know the margin of error in the new number.

One would be hard--pressed to invent a more ridiculous scenario than that offered by the history of such numbers.

Here's the thing: DON'T BELIEVE THE NEW -0.4% FIGURE.

It could be high, it could be low, it could be somewhere in-between. YOY figures would be more telling, if you could put any faith at all in the reporting and analysis--which you cannot.

Believe what you understand yourself, not what you are being sold. If you don't know, find out more information to make your own decision, other than that you are being led around by the nose, which is fine, until it isn't.

agip, (and I mean this in the best way), you are a fool, a dupe, a chump. You are twisting in the wind. Surely you must have some insights from your own knowledge, from your own activities, from your own economic involvement and from those you know. Your constant recitation of, and faith in the meaning of, published numbers, is frankly an embarrassment.

Here's the newest source of b.s.:

http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

Jan: -0.4% (+/-0.3%)

Great trajectory. Over-report initially, and the markets go up. Find out you have crap numbers for February, so revise January downward when it is old news and people have already reacted, so that there is now a much lower drop in February, and it therefore looks like the month-over-month picture is now improving.

WHAT A BUNCH OF ABSOLUTE CRAP.

BTW the Feb figure is -0.1% (+/-0.5%)

!

Maserati wrote:

agip, (and I mean this in the best way), you are a fool, a dupe, a chump. You are twisting in the wind. Surely you must have some insights from your own knowledge, from your own activities, from your own economic involvement and from those you know. Your constant recitation of, and faith in the meaning of, published numbers, is frankly an embarrassment.

yes, yes, I should use anecdote and hearsay instead. . Absolutely.

17 trillion of GDP is pretty much captureable by just looking around and listening.

And look at all the career government statisticians who have confessed to "manufacturing" numbers after being pressured by politicians. It's rampant. All over the place.

Maserati,

Even with low interest rates, designed to support the housing and auto industries, the job recovery has been poor. Throughout this weak economic recovery the job gains have been in low wage earners. Labor participation has declined as many opted for transfer payments rather than seeking a low quality position.

The stock market performance is masking an economy that is in the process of rolling over. Business inventories rising and earnings collapsing continue to be ignored by the hopium addicts.

Igy

I don't buy the "Igy is K5" theory. Igy has his issues, but he is a positive contributor to the thread and only mildly nuts (not offense). K5, on the other hand, is completely unglued. Kinda like Maserati. :-)

So when will the bull market be officially declared dead?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Maserati,

Even with low interest rates, designed to support the housing and auto industries, the job recovery has been poor. Throughout this weak economic recovery the job gains have been in low wage earners. Labor participation has declined as many opted for transfer payments rather than seeking a low quality position.

The stock market performance is masking an economy that is in the process of rolling over. Business inventories rising and earnings collapsing continue to be ignored by the hopium addicts.

Igy

it's a bit of a myth that only bad jobs have been created. Wage and salary growth has been in the 4-5% growth range the last few years.

POTO,

Thank you, I think. I would never get into an anti-Semitic rants. I spent a considerable time in my coaching career where I was the minority (White). I have avoided politics here and tried to focus on the economy and markets. I have admitted to posting under another handle when the troll LGLOI was impersonating my handle. I also do not mind being a little nasty when someone dumps unjustified crap on my door step. Most who do so would never say it to your face. Cowardly.

The Bull Market end will be declared on the drop dead date of 9-13-2016. Hope I got the date correct my friendly foil.

Igy

agip,

I certainly have benefitted, and my profession has prospered, during this period. I believe there is deep resentment in the middle class where wage growth has been stagnant for years. Job and wage growth certainly is a focus of this election cycle. Interestingly enough Hillary is speaking about the same issues as I type.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip,

I certainly have benefitted, and my profession has prospered, during this period. I believe there is deep resentment in the middle class where wage growth has been stagnant for years. Job and wage growth certainly is a focus of this election cycle. Interestingly enough Hillary is speaking about the same issues as I type.

Igy

but the 'middle class wage growth has been stagnant' is not nearly as bad as people say.

it's all about the diffrence between household income and wage growth. Household income has flatlined, mostly because of the huge numbers of people living alone. Esp old women.

but wage grwoth is much better.

agip,

I will give you that, but the perception in the middle class is different.

Igy