Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

Trollminator wrote:

johnny99 wrote:

RCP betting odds have Biden up by 7.3.

Biden: 53.3

Trump: 46.0

That's much tighter than it was a month ago (Biden was up by over 20 points), but Biden's lead has widened considerably in the last week (Biden was up by 0.5 on 9/1).

hng_odds/2020_president/

I don't see trump gaining much ground from here. Biden and Harris are kicking off their on-the-road campaign and if anything fluctuations from here will be mostly due to polling rounding error and slight shifts with undecideds. Biden will be up 7-9% nationally through election day.

Florida is the big problem - it keeps getting tighter, and Biden apparently repels hispanics for some reason. Biden is doing much worse with Hispanics in FL than HRC did. Weird politics in that state.

Interestingly tho, NC is starting to move toward blueness...a win in NC would lessen the blow of a loss in FL.

agip wrote:

Trollminator wrote:

I don't see trump gaining much ground from here. Biden and Harris are kicking off their on-the-road campaign and if anything fluctuations from here will be mostly due to polling rounding error and slight shifts with undecideds. Biden will be up 7-9% nationally through election day.

Florida is the big problem - it keeps getting tighter, and Biden apparently repels hispanics for some reason. Biden is doing much worse with Hispanics in FL than HRC did. Weird politics in that state.

Interestingly tho, NC is starting to move toward blueness...a win in NC would lessen the blow of a loss in FL.

to put a point on it, I think the main worry is that whites will 'come home' to the white nationalist party in WI MI PA, and weakness among hispanics in FL will continue for Joe. Add in the usual 3% polling fail and it's very tight in the EC.

Have to say tho...it's refreshing to see that states like OH, NC, FL and AZ that had been given up for dead by the Dems are in play. Democracy can refresh itself.

agip wrote:

Trollminator wrote:

I don't see trump gaining much ground from here. Biden and Harris are kicking off their on-the-road campaign and if anything fluctuations from here will be mostly due to polling rounding error and slight shifts with undecideds. Biden will be up 7-9% nationally through election day.

Florida is the big problem - it keeps getting tighter, and Biden apparently repels hispanics for some reason. Biden is doing much worse with Hispanics in FL than HRC did. Weird politics in that state.

Interestingly tho, NC is starting to move toward blueness...a win in NC would lessen the blow of a loss in FL.

Biden doesn't need Florida to win as long he gets 3 out of the following 5 states:

AZ, MI, NC, PA, WI. He's currently leading in all of them.

Trump on the other hand has to win Florida, he has no viable path to 270 without it.

agip wrote:

agip wrote:

Florida is the big problem - it keeps getting tighter, and Biden apparently repels hispanics for some reason. Biden is doing much worse with Hispanics in FL than HRC did. Weird politics in that state.

Interestingly tho, NC is starting to move toward blueness...a win in NC would lessen the blow of a loss in FL.

to put a point on it, I think the main worry is that whites will 'come home' to the white nationalist party in WI MI PA, and weakness among hispanics in FL will continue for Joe. Add in the usual 3% polling fail and it's very tight in the EC.

Have to say tho...it's refreshing to see that states like OH, NC, FL and AZ that had been given up for dead by the Dems are in play. Democracy can refresh itself.

I am also concerned about FL, but that mostly because we keep viewing Biden through the lens of HRC's 2016 performance. Florida can be seen as a toss up, but then goes red for presidential election... I write FL off. The aging population is extremely susceptible to trump's and GOP's fear mongering, regardless of political leaning. Other contests are much more realistic and exciting for Biden.

Trollminator wrote:

johnny99 wrote:

RCP betting odds have Biden up by 7.3.

Biden: 53.3

Trump: 46.0

That's much tighter than it was a month ago (Biden was up by over 20 points), but Biden's lead has widened considerably in the last week (Biden was up by 0.5 on 9/1).

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/

I don't see trump gaining much ground from here. Biden and Harris are kicking off their on-the-road campaign and if anything fluctuations from here will be mostly due to polling rounding error and slight shifts with undecideds. Biden will be up 7-9% nationally through election day.

These are betting odds, not popular vote polling differences, so they're heavy on speculation colored by individual's partisan biases. If the popular vote spread (currently Biden +7.1 on the RCP average) stays in that range to the election, the betting odds will change dramatically as the clock winds down.

The expectation is that they should move toward the electoral college model forecasts as we get closer to the election. Those could change, of course, but 538 currently has the odds at 72% Biden / 28% Trump.

Monkeys typing wrote:

Trollminator wrote:

I don't see trump gaining much ground from here. Biden and Harris are kicking off their on-the-road campaign and if anything fluctuations from here will be mostly due to polling rounding error and slight shifts with undecideds. Biden will be up 7-9% nationally through election day.

These are betting odds, not popular vote polling differences, so they're heavy on speculation colored by individual's partisan biases. If the popular vote spread (currently Biden +7.1 on the RCP average) stays in that range to the election, the betting odds will change dramatically as the clock winds down.

The expectation is that they should move toward the electoral college model forecasts as we get closer to the election. Those could change, of course, but 538 currently has the odds at 72% Biden / 28% Trump.

Yeah, I don't know that the betting odds have any real significance other than that the favorite usually wins (like in the Kentucky Derby, right?). I only posted them because there's a Trump supporter who will post the betting odds whenever Trump gets close to Biden, which he did about a week ago when Trump was only a point or so behind Biden on the RCP betting odds average.

The favorite ALWAYS wins. Yes?

Like when Mike Tyson was a -4200 favorite against Buster Douglas?

Or when Tyson was a -2500 against Evander H.

Or when Phi Slamma Jamma lost to NC State?

Or when the vaunted Georgetown lost to Villanova?

Sally Vix wrote:

johnny99 wrote:

Yeah, I don't know that the betting odds have any real significance other than that the favorite usually wins (like in the Kentucky Derby, right?). I only posted them because there's a Trump supporter who will post the betting odds whenever Trump gets close to Biden, which he did about a week ago when Trump was only a point or so behind Biden on the RCP betting odds average.

The favorite ALWAYS wins. Yes?

Like when Mike Tyson was a -4200 favorite against Buster Douglas?

Or when Tyson was a -2500 against Evander H.

Or when Phi Slamma Jamma lost to NC State?

Or when the vaunted Georgetown lost to Villanova?

Relax, my friend. I didn't say the favorite ALWAYS wins. I said the favorite usually wins, and referenced the Kentucky Derby to make the point that upsets do happen. Perhaps you're not a horse racing fan, but the overwhelming favorite (Tiz the Law) lost this year's Derby, which was run this past Saturday.

Yes, Trump has a puncher's chance, like Buster Douglas. Maybe he's even got a little better than a puncher's chance. But I'd rather be in Biden's position than Trump's right now.

Sally Vix wrote:

johnny99 wrote:

Yeah, I don't know that the betting odds have any real significance other than that the favorite usually wins (like in the Kentucky Derby, right?). I only posted them because there's a Trump supporter who will post the betting odds whenever Trump gets close to Biden, which he did about a week ago when Trump was only a point or so behind Biden on the RCP betting odds average.

The favorite ALWAYS wins. Yes?

Like when Mike Tyson was a -4200 favorite against Buster Douglas?

Or when Tyson was a -2500 against Evander H.

Or when Phi Slamma Jamma lost to NC State?

Or when the vaunted Georgetown lost to Villanova?

usually

/ˈjuːʒəwəli/

adverb

— used to describe what happens or exists most of the time or in most cases

always

/ˈɑːlˌweɪz/

adverb

1

a : at all times : on every occasion : in a way that does not change

See the difference?

Alan

White supremacists are the greatest terror threat to the United States, according to the Dept. of Homeland Security.

Many groups that have been in the news lately, such as the Boogaloo Bois, Patriot Prayer, the Proud Boys, and various militia groups, are made up at least in part by anti-government white supremacists.

Trump calls one such white supremacist group, who came into Portland to start trouble and found it, with 2 people ending up dead, GREAT PATRIOTS.

This is from the people that Trump calls GREAT PATRIOTS:

One associate of Patriot Prayer, Reggie Axtell, threatened Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler, and another, Skylor Jernigan, has made explicit threats against Portland antifascists. “You’re gonna be getting knives put into your throat. You’re going to be getting bullets put into your head if you don’t stop this sh*t with us,” Jernigan said.

https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2020/08/31/what-we-know-about-patriot-prayer

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/04/white-supremacists-terror-threat-dhs-409236

https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2020/08/30/trump-praises-supporters-in-caravan-after-deadly-portland-protests/#77d78d1a1242

VERY FINE PEOPLE, INDEED!

This is really sad, and even worse because these days as a country we don't own it. The scary part is that these people and their sympathizers have grown in boldness and visibility thanks to trump. Also, their voice and vote, due to color and location (thanks gerrymandering) is louder than others'.

You're going to lose bigly... wrote:

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

Wrong. It will be closer to 234. Both of you will be gone forever on election night.

https://nypost.com/2020/09/07/why-is-joe-biden-addicted-to-reading-his-handlers-scripts/?utm_source=twitter_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons

Elder abuse.

"Come on, man!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ass-g46BYq4

You really don't want to play this game.

Dementia Joe will NEVER be POTUS.

Enjoy your loss.

Runningart2004 wrote:

usually

/ˈjuːʒəwəli/

adverb

— used to describe what happens or exists most of the time or in most cases

always

/ˈɑːlˌweɪz/

adverb

1

a : at all times : on every occasion : in a way that does not change

See the difference?

Alan

Wait--you took all that time to "correct" a known troll?

I'm surprised. You're usually much more head-up than that.

Well, I guess you folks can spend your time throwing posts past each other, and changing no one's mind. I think I'll spend some of my time trying to get individuals to vote.

Best wishes to everybody.

https://postcardstovoters.org/

Stop posting fake news, Gina.

https://www.juancole.com/2020/07/really-russian-afghanistan.html

"Mark Miley, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff says there’s no proof that Russian payments led to any US deaths. The National Security Agency says it found no communications intelligence supporting the bounty claim.

Marine Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., head of the US Central Command, says he’s not convinced that American troops died as a result of Russian bounties."

agip wrote:

I think the main worry is that whites will 'come home' to the white nationalist party in WI MI PA,

Democrats were the party of the KKK.

facts and reason wrote:

agip wrote:

I think the main worry is that whites will 'come home' to the white nationalist party in WI MI PA,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2K5JxFXus1Y&t=3s

Democrats were the party of the KKK.

Republicans ARE the party of the KKK.