Can we appreciate how incredible those Herriman performances at Firman were?
It's neither a fast course nor a super slow one, but there have been years where you only need to run 15:15-15:20 to get an individual berth to NXN from the Northwest region.
Keep in mind that this year was both slightly warmer, and more dusty than last year.
Herriman 2023 Bob Firman:
15:25, 15:30, 15:32, 15:40, 15:41, 15:52, 15:59
1-5 Avg: 15:33
Herriman 2024 Bob Firman:
15:02, 15:06, 15:16, 15:33, 15:39, 15:49, 16:11
1-5 Avg: 15:19
It was not until 2012 that the top team in the Northwest could average sub 16 on this course. EVERY team that has averaged under 15:50 on this course has placed top 4 at NXN or better. TWO champion teams have averaged 15:5x and gone on to win NXN
Times required since covid to individually qualify to NXN from the Northwest:
2022 - 15:22 or faster
2023 - 15:12 or faster
WHAT HERRIMAN DID TODAY IS NEWBURY PARK TYPE STUFF
Can we appreciate how incredible those Herriman performances at Firman were?
It's neither a fast course nor a super slow one, but there have been years where you only need to run 15:15-15:20 to get an individual berth to NXN from the Northwest region.
Keep in mind that this year was both slightly warmer, and more dusty than last year.
Herriman 2023 Bob Firman:
15:25, 15:30, 15:32, 15:40, 15:41, 15:52, 15:59
1-5 Avg: 15:33
Herriman 2024 Bob Firman:
15:02, 15:06, 15:16, 15:33, 15:39, 15:49, 16:11
1-5 Avg: 15:19
It was not until 2012 that the top team in the Northwest could average sub 16 on this course. EVERY team that has averaged under 15:50 on this course has placed top 4 at NXN or better. TWO champion teams have averaged 15:5x and gone on to win NXN
Times required since covid to individually qualify to NXN from the Northwest:
2022 - 15:22 or faster
2023 - 15:12 or faster
WHAT HERRIMAN DID TODAY IS NEWBURY PARK TYPE STUFF
I agree it was insane what they did but keep in mind that bob firman this year was high 70s and windy. Last year it was 67. NXR Northwest had perfect conditions last year. So comparing performances from nxr northwest to bob firman is tricky
Can we appreciate how incredible those Herriman performances at Firman were?
It's neither a fast course nor a super slow one, but there have been years where you only need to run 15:15-15:20 to get an individual berth to NXN from the Northwest region.
Keep in mind that this year was both slightly warmer, and more dusty than last year.
Herriman 2023 Bob Firman:
15:25, 15:30, 15:32, 15:40, 15:41, 15:52, 15:59
1-5 Avg: 15:33
Herriman 2024 Bob Firman:
15:02, 15:06, 15:16, 15:33, 15:39, 15:49, 16:11
1-5 Avg: 15:19
It was not until 2012 that the top team in the Northwest could average sub 16 on this course. EVERY team that has averaged under 15:50 on this course has placed top 4 at NXN or better. TWO champion teams have averaged 15:5x and gone on to win NXN
Times required since covid to individually qualify to NXN from the Northwest:
2022 - 15:22 or faster
2023 - 15:12 or faster
WHAT HERRIMAN DID TODAY IS NEWBURY PARK TYPE STUFF
newbury park stuff would be having 5 guys under 15
Can we appreciate how incredible those Herriman performances at Firman were?
It's neither a fast course nor a super slow one, but there have been years where you only need to run 15:15-15:20 to get an individual berth to NXN from the Northwest region.
Keep in mind that this year was both slightly warmer, and more dusty than last year.
Herriman 2023 Bob Firman:
15:25, 15:30, 15:32, 15:40, 15:41, 15:52, 15:59
1-5 Avg: 15:33
Herriman 2024 Bob Firman:
15:02, 15:06, 15:16, 15:33, 15:39, 15:49, 16:11
1-5 Avg: 15:19
It was not until 2012 that the top team in the Northwest could average sub 16 on this course. EVERY team that has averaged under 15:50 on this course has placed top 4 at NXN or better. TWO champion teams have averaged 15:5x and gone on to win NXN
Times required since covid to individually qualify to NXN from the Northwest:
2022 - 15:22 or faster
2023 - 15:12 or faster
WHAT HERRIMAN DID TODAY IS NEWBURY PARK TYPE STUFF
I agree it was insane what they did but keep in mind that bob firman this year was high 70s and windy. Last year it was 67. NXR Northwest had perfect conditions last year. So comparing performances from nxr northwest to bob firman is tricky
So it is even more impressive because it is hotter.
do you know if it's the exact same course as nxr southwest?
I know the 2023 course was muddy but the 2022 course was dry
the course may have been dry, but it was extremely hot in Phoenix. According to the source I checked, the high temperature yesterday was 111°F, and it was still around 100°F even at 9:55 PM when the race began!
Was there. It was 95 when I made it to my car about 45 minutes after the race. Think this hurt the Colorado teams a bit (who still put 6 teams in the top 11 on the guys side and 5 in the top 11 on the girls side). Neat event, but hit as snot.
What an interesting weekend for the southwest on the boys side...
Now that Niwot has finally shown their full hand, it seems safe to say that Herriman is on a different level. I still see them as the 1-2 teams in the country, but Niwot faces an uphill battle to pull the upset.
After that, the race for two at-large NXN bids is fairly open (assuming that the SW gets 2). American Fork probably remains the favorite to finish 3rd, but I think that is more of a question than it seemed pre-season. We probably won't know exactly how they stack up until the Utah state meet.
The trio of Taylorsville, Rio Rancho, and Coronado (especially with their transfer fully eligible by NXR) seem to be solidly in the hunt for an at-large. I would be surprised but not shocked if any of those schools beat AF at NXR. It's somewhat bizarre that it's played out this way, considering the lack of pre-season buzz about Taylorsville and Rio Rancho.
Riverton, Hamilton, and Rock Canyon might all belong in that tier as well, but I have questions about all 3. Riverton seems to be moving in the wrong direction after a few solid Utah meets early in the season. Hamilton's Desert Twilight was a head scratcher. Canyon probably needs someone from their pack to emerge as a more formidable #2 to have a chance.
After that, Lone Peak, Cheyenne Mountain, and Valor all still have a shot. Each of them would need breakthrough, but I'd argue that there's still a conceivable path for each of them to finish top 4 at NXR.
The southwest is obviously more dominant on the girls side (a top 10 national team is likely being left at home), but I think this will be one of the most intriguing and unpredictable boys Southwest races we've seen in a long time. Odds are we'll see at least one school get their first ever NXN bid.
What an interesting weekend for the southwest on the boys side...
Now that Niwot has finally shown their full hand, it seems safe to say that Herriman is on a different level. I still see them as the 1-2 teams in the country, but Niwot faces an uphill battle to pull the upset.
After that, the race for two at-large NXN bids is fairly open (assuming that the SW gets 2). American Fork probably remains the favorite to finish 3rd, but I think that is more of a question than it seemed pre-season. We probably won't know exactly how they stack up until the Utah state meet.
The trio of Taylorsville, Rio Rancho, and Coronado (especially with their transfer fully eligible by NXR) seem to be solidly in the hunt for an at-large. I would be surprised but not shocked if any of those schools beat AF at NXR. It's somewhat bizarre that it's played out this way, considering the lack of pre-season buzz about Taylorsville and Rio Rancho.
Riverton, Hamilton, and Rock Canyon might all belong in that tier as well, but I have questions about all 3. Riverton seems to be moving in the wrong direction after a few solid Utah meets early in the season. Hamilton's Desert Twilight was a head scratcher. Canyon probably needs someone from their pack to emerge as a more formidable #2 to have a chance.
After that, Lone Peak, Cheyenne Mountain, and Valor all still have a shot. Each of them would need breakthrough, but I'd argue that there's still a conceivable path for each of them to finish top 4 at NXR.
The southwest is obviously more dominant on the girls side (a top 10 national team is likely being left at home), but I think this will be one of the most intriguing and unpredictable boys Southwest races we've seen in a long time. Odds are we'll see at least one school get their first ever NXN bid.
I think your tiers here are too precise. Of course it’s Herriman, Niwot & AF, in that order. After that, there are five more SW teams in the top 20 nationally for speed rankings: Hamilton, Riverton, Rock Canyon, Cheyenne Mountain and Taylorsville. That does not include Rio Rancho or Coronado, who belong in that tier as well. It’s two months out. Not many knew how good Rio Rancho was until yesterday. Someone else could emerge. Regardless, with so many excellent teams bunched together, it’s going to come down to which team executes a perfect race on the day. Any top 5 kid with a cold or a breakthrough race could tip the balance.
Regardless, with so many excellent teams bunched together, it’s going to come down to which team executes a perfect race on the day. Any top 5 kid with a cold or a breakthrough race could tip the balance.
That’s basically the point of my post. I tried to split some hairs, but there are at least 10 national caliber teams fighting for the two at large bids.
A lot can (and will) change in the next 2 months, but the race itself feels as deep and unpredictable as ever.
Can we appreciate how incredible those Herriman performances at Firman were?
It's neither a fast course nor a super slow one, but there have been years where you only need to run 15:15-15:20 to get an individual berth to NXN from the Northwest region.
Keep in mind that this year was both slightly warmer, and more dusty than last year.
Herriman 2023 Bob Firman:
15:25, 15:30, 15:32, 15:40, 15:41, 15:52, 15:59
1-5 Avg: 15:33
Herriman 2024 Bob Firman:
15:02, 15:06, 15:16, 15:33, 15:39, 15:49, 16:11
1-5 Avg: 15:19
It was not until 2012 that the top team in the Northwest could average sub 16 on this course. EVERY team that has averaged under 15:50 on this course has placed top 4 at NXN or better. TWO champion teams have averaged 15:5x and gone on to win NXN
Times required since covid to individually qualify to NXN from the Northwest:
2022 - 15:22 or faster
2023 - 15:12 or faster
WHAT HERRIMAN DID TODAY IS NEWBURY PARK TYPE STUFF
newbury park stuff would be having 5 guys under 15
No Ridgefield CT in these speed rating average rankings, but their varsity hasn’t raced yet. I heard that they will start racing at Great American on Oct 1.
Rio Rancho will be in those rankings after the Desert Twilight Meet, which will make it 10 Southwest teams up there. Crazy
I think these rankings are better than the Milesplit rankings. It’s more appropriate to have 2 California teams in the top 25 instead of a NY and a Heartland team because not only are these regions weak on the team side, but Cedar Falls and Ithaca might not even be the best teams in their regions
