Official 2018 Pre Nats Discussion Thread

zxcvzxcv wrote:

The 25 year old guy might well be turning 26 this academic year.

No actually he turned 25 less than a month ago.

You know, you had a 26 year old win the Women's NCAA XC championships as a sophomore last year and it wasn't a thing.

Give a guy a break, yes he just turned 25, but he also took two years of training off boohoo.

Goucher Needles wrote:

Mr. Gault:

You as a prognosticator extraordinarie know that BYU has no chance to beat NAU. I believe that you’d pick them third at best at NCAAs as they routinely underperform at championship meets. It will not be close. BYU will finish third at best (more likely 4th or 5th).

I think you should compose an elegant predictive algorithm using the traditional-historical performance of a program under their current coach at NCAA championships to estimate team placing based on results at competitive big season events like prenats.

Are you willing to bet BYU finishes no better than 4th or 5th? If you’re confident they’re “more likely” to finish there than top 3 then I’ll gladly put money on it. They did choke at nationals last year and barely finish 3rd, but doubt this squad will do the same thing again this year. Maybe they don’t win, maybe they still slightly underperform, but I’ll put money on top 2.

Jonathan Gault wrote:

meaningless merge wrote:

The big takeaway isn't that BYU wins some meaningless merged results. The races were very different. NAU was a slow moving huge pack thru 2K, and still a pretty big pack at 4K.

However, I agree that the big takeaway is that NAU will definitely have to earn that title, as BYU should give them a very tough race.

Right. I agree that merging the results doesn't tell us anything.

My point was that the big takeaway is that "anybody who thinks BYU has no chance after today is kidding themselves." NAU has a fight on its hands.

Yeah we heard that last year. NAU ran as a pack and composed by you was all over the place.

BYU will choke / burnout and be like 4th at natties. And they're all old.

tonbridge superstar wrote:

Chris Olley from USF for the win in the White race - stopped to put show back on at Natty and still finished 38th, 37s behind winner

This boy is gonna shock some BYU OAPs at Nationals!

Jonathan Gault wrote:

Big run for the Washington men as well. They were beaten badly by Syracuse at the Battle in Beantown three weeks ago but came out here and beat Syracuse by 89 points to finish second behind BYU. The Huskies could be a top-10 team in Andy Powell's first year.

Why was Affolder a DNS? Is he sick? Injured?

Gggygygygggygy wrote:

Jonathan Gault wrote:

Big run for the Washington men as well. They were beaten badly by Syracuse at the Battle in Beantown three weeks ago but came out here and beat Syracuse by 89 points to finish second behind BYU. The Huskies could be a top-10 team in Andy Powell's first year.

Why was Affolder a DNS? Is he sick? Injured?

Sorry, I just saw him in the results. I had not looked deep enough

Byus workouts in August are more important and draining in their minds that NAUs (and any other wise programs) race yesterday. Watch any workout or race from floyrack centered around byu. The coaches are running around and screaming encouragements and adjustments. The coaches are jumping for joy in winning September races. Very immature coaching IMO. Great coaches in some ways, but they do not seem to be "woke" to young (well, old) Collegiate athletes. By the time they get to November all of their emotions have been wasted on workouts and races. Every time they don't beat the 84 other great athletes at their practice they are disillusioned and they have to talk themselves up again internally. You can only tell yourself you're okay so many times in the season before you're convinced you suck in some way. Or, most athletes can only dig so deep in practice and races so many times before they lose focus. NAU is playing duck duck goose in between intervals and ghost in the graveyard Friday night before the race. They're calm and their best comes later.

Gggygygygggygy wrote:

Jonathan Gault wrote:

Big run for the Washington men as well. They were beaten badly by Syracuse at the Battle in Beantown three weeks ago but came out here and beat Syracuse by 89 points to finish second behind BYU. The Huskies could be a top-10 team in Andy Powell's first year.

Why was Affolder a DNS? Is he sick? Injured?

He ran. Cuse number 2.

You think the 2nd best team in the country gets it in their head that “they suck?”

Ok stupid question....WHY was the race delayed due to frost and why is there a question of what will happen if there's snow on the course at Nat's? Have rules in XC changed? We ran south central regionals in like 2-3 inches of snow and yo know Univs down here are wusses when it comes to cold weather!

He does bring up an accurate point though about their workouts. Tempo pace is often closer (or faster) than race pace for a lot of them. They are always going so hard and too fast, and are very competitive in those workouts. I can see how by the end of the year that could start to hurt them.

Jonathan Gault wrote:

Big run for the Washington men as well. They were beaten badly by Syracuse at the Battle in Beantown three weeks ago but came out here and beat Syracuse by 89 points to finish second behind BYU. The Huskies could be a top-10 team in Andy Powell's first year.

Yes, very nice race for the Dawgs. Proctor rounding into form; great to see Powell utilize the talent on that roster. They also had Andy Snyder run 24:29 to win the Gray race by almost 8 seconds. Throw him in the top seven and that depth increases.

Let’s be real BYU have blown their load in yesterday’s race and will look stupid come NCAA’s. Can’t wait to see Rory Linkletters disappointed face when his team doesn’t even come second again.

So Canadian born runners won both the white race and the cardinal race.

Will we have to wait another year to see a US born runner win the NCAA XC?

Just curious... but why do people hate on BYU so much?

RunWA19 wrote:

Just curious... but why do people hate on BYU so much?

It is a little surprising, but they had some hardcore fans that were obnoxious on here for a few years and so people took joy in their end of season crumbles.

At some point if for no reason other than pure luck they will put it together at a national meet eventually. They certainly have potential to win this year. Until they do, I’ll keep betting (and cheering) against them. Only after they win will they make me consider betting on them.

206 love wrote:

Jonathan Gault wrote:

Big run for the Washington men as well. They were beaten badly by Syracuse at the Battle in Beantown three weeks ago but came out here and beat Syracuse by 89 points to finish second behind BYU. The Huskies could be a top-10 team in Andy Powell's first year.

Yes, very nice race for the Dawgs. Proctor rounding into form; great to see Powell utilize the talent on that roster. They also had Andy Snyder run 24:29 to win the Gray race by almost 8 seconds. Throw him in the top seven and that depth increases.

Only a few months in, and already Andy is producing a better men's result than his disgraced predecessor in over a decade there.

WOOF

BYU will choke / burnout and be like 4th at natties. And they're all old.

This boy is gonna shock some BYU OAPs at Nationals!

Great coaches in some ways, but they do not seem to be "woke" to young (well, old) Collegiate athletes.

Let’s be real BYU have blown their load in yesterday’s race and will look stupid come NCAA’s. Can’t wait to see Rory Linkletters disappointed face when his team doesn’t even come second again.

Fools mock, this is the only team in the country who would be subjected to this much mockery and derision after a stellar performance.

And for all you haters that veil your hate and contempt with lousy old age excuses, consider this.

If no one on BYU's current team served missions, you could make a good case that they would be even better. And you wouldn't even have the old man excuse to justify your hate.

They would still have their top 4 from Pre Nats.

Rory Linkletter, Connor McMillan, Conner Mantz, Clayson Shumay

But instead of a couple guys semi fresh off of missions in Shumway and Mantz, they would be battle tested Seniors or Redshirt Juniors.

But what about a fifth? I'm sure they would be at a disadvantage having to rely on some youth in

All American sophomore Casey Clinger and NXN champion Aidan Troutner.

BYU would sure be hurting if it wasn't for those unfair advantageous mission trips you keep spouting out drivel about incessantly.