Official Gwen Jorgensen Prediction / USATF Half Marathon Champs in Pittsburgh Thread

Not Fast But Furious wrote:

Raysism wrote:

Ordinarily I'd be inclined to agree with you, but wow does her gait look inefficient. Her shoulders are turning so much that her elbows get almost directly behind her spine. And I'm sure it looks worse than the other elites because of her height.

Any experienced coaches on here have any thoughts on her form?

Paula Radcliffe had the ugliest form I've ever seen and she did pretty well for herself. I'm sure a coach could fine tune it and she can make some improvements there as well. Like I said, she has a big upside.

However, what you fail to mention is how long Paula had been training as a marathoner, and how long she had been racing as a marathoner. She GREW into her body as a distance runner. It didn't happen over night.

I's funny to me how easy it is for everyone to become oblivious ( not saying that you are) of what it takes to be really great or good at something. We have seen people rush stuff over the years, and it always leads to the same result: either injury, defeat or both.

Last year, I stated, as well as other people, that Clayton Murphy was way in over his head at trying to run the double at the US Championships, to go after doing the double at the WC. I was like this guy is in great 800m form, and could possible win gold at the WC. He shouldn't risk it, and that he has plenty of time to go after 1500m, and that he could do that later on down the road. He was trying to do too much too soon. But people were like, no, he knows his body, and people just need to be supportive and stop hating. ....What happened? Dude got injured, and missed the WC, and now he looks like a shell of himself.

I see the same thing with Gwen. Someone trying to cram 8 years worth of work into 48 months. And all that I'm saying as a logical, practical person, is for her to take her time and do MARATHON training the right way.

I don't know her as a person or as a mother ,so I stay away from that. I am merely critiquing her run training and performance, and it is not good.

Put down the Vlogs and constant coverage, and just put in the work over the next 4-5 years. Learn how to race, learn your competition, domestic and foreign, build up a true running body, and then maybe you will have a shot at going for gold.

Not Fast But Furious wrote:

Raysism wrote:

Ordinarily I'd be inclined to agree with you, but wow does her gait look inefficient. Her shoulders are turning so much that her elbows get almost directly behind her spine. And I'm sure it looks worse than the other elites because of her height.

Any experienced coaches on here have any thoughts on her form?

Paula Radcliffe had the ugliest form I've ever seen and she did pretty well for herself. I'm sure a coach could fine tune it and she can make some improvements there as well. Like I said, she has a big upside.

My original post was poorly stated. My point is more nuanced than "her form/stride aren't perfect therefore she'll be terrible at the marathon", it's more that if you take into consideration A) her under performance in Pittsburgh relative to her recent 5k times and B) loping and likely inefficient stride, I don't think she will scale up to the marathon well. She's already not scaling up to the half marathon well!

Plus the fact that she is unable to run more than 80MPW should be interpreted as another downside. Others seem to interpret this as another reason why she has upside, but staying healthy at high mileage is a necessary skill of a marathoner. To come full circle, her over striding is definitely not helping her stay healthy. Again this has nothing to with having ugly or not perfect form. I think she form is good looking, but I'm skeptical that it's suited for the marathon.

All that said I'm rooting for her. I like her back story and social media presence which adds depth. If I were a gambling man, which I am, I wouldn't put her in my top 3. A lot could change between now and the trials, but there are already several women ahead of her who have proven they are top US tier marathoners. So far the information we have on Gwen suggests that she is not at that level.

Also the comparison to Desi is just awful.

I don't totally disagree with what others are saying. Just look at Sara Hall. She had a rough transition to the marathon and is just recently hitting her stride so to speak. Plus Sara is gifted with a perfect body type and form for longer distances. I do think Gwen will do well in the long run assuming she doesn't quit or get injured but she has a lot more ground to make up than those training for years as a marathon runner as Scorpion stated. That said, she should have not talked about Olympic gold. That just sounded foolish.

The amount of energy you are putting into attempting to prove your point about Gwen Jorgensen should be unsettling to yourself. I am not even going to bother pointing out the significant fallacies in your arguments because you are so dead set on this idea that nobody is going to change your mind. I simply think you find her boldness and confidence unsettling.

also of note, remember Sara Hall now trains frequently in Ethiopia and runs often with east african runners, so that likely has improved her form

and on the other hand, Gwen knows how to run tired with all her triathlon experience which is important past that 22-23 mile point for elites

like others have noted, getting her mpw up is going to do wonders for her efficiency

it's an easy guess that while Sara may be approaching the limit for improving her times, Gwen can only get better and better, the question is if she has enough time by 2020

Scorpion_runner wrote:

This is why you have so many regular people cheating in marathon and ultra events, because of social media and vlogs. I could see if it were a vlog to talk about training and break down the different levels of training. Fans don't want to watch that, because it isn't a fairy tale. They watch that crap, and say hey, "I want to be like Gwen", instead of saying "hey, I want to be a solid runner."

I look at Gwen's form and it's terrible. I look at her body and it lacks running strength. Everything just looks rushed, with no true planning behind it. Any true runner can see that.

Has it ever occurred to you that it's not the vlogs that are causing more people to cheat - it's the vlogs that are catching more cheaters? it wasn't as easy to catch cheaters in previous decades. Strava is huge, GPS watches are commonplace, and results are more available, with split data, live. And then you have Derek the Marathon Investigator.

Scorpion_runner wrote:

I look at Gwen's form and it's terrible. I look at her body and it lacks running strength. Everything just looks rushed, with no true planning behind it.

not sure if you realize the inverse of what you are saying but if her form and body is so terrible and she's still somehow throwing down 71 minute halfs by perhaps "brute force", imagine what's going to happen with even small improvements? now imagine over two years...

on a side thought, can anyone tell me what shoes Gwen and Sara are using?

Is Gwen using vapor-flys or are those something else?

Sara is sponsored by Asics but what model is that?

You make a good point. The technology is also very useful at catching dishonest runners, but the fantasy and perception that are illustrated through social media just creates a high level of enticement for the avg person. People get stimulated and motivated for all the wrong reasons. Instead of focusing on being a solid runner, they try to emulate the life or the story of the particular elite runner that they are watching, and that is where it all goes wrong. They want to have the same image, and be considered great as well, so they lie on their Strava pages. They lie on their Facebook pages, and they lie about their race times.

Vlogs and Blogs used to be focused on training ,and the workouts that are needed to excel. Take Sage Canaday's Vlog for instance : as corny as his intros are, dude videos are mostly about training and what workouts to do. He goes into great detail about training, and how to master a particular event based on a runner's ability. That is his foundation. He might make some videos that focus on his journey to run a certain time in Boston or in a particular ultra race, but those are merely side project stuff. He is all about providing quality running information and sharing it with the run community.

I just think running is slowly turning into a circus with this new movement of running reality videos, where the focus is on following the life of a runner, as opposed to following the training of a runner. It's all bout how many followers and likes you have, and having crossover appeal and promotion. You got runners who are getting profitable endorsements because they have a huge social following, but they aren't even elite or sub-elite. On the flip side of that, there are a lot of top runners who have good racing times, but are not getting any sponsorship deals thrown their way.

I just think Gwen's entire attempt is ushering in a show business approach to the world of running, which is

attracting all the wrong attention and all the wrong viewers.

So that’s why you lie about what she has said?

Shouldn't every professional runner have the goal of winning a gold medal?

Guys.

Am I off-base here in thinking that Gwen's debut was actually a huge success?

She is entirely new to the sport and gave birth 8 months ago.... and still was only 1 minute behind Sara Hall (who ran a 2:27 at CIM)

I think that is a hell of a debut. She has a LOT to learn.. her stride is awkward and I think she needs to pack on some muscle, but I see HUGE upside for her.

I wouldn't bet against someone who is new to a sport and comes up only 1 min slower than Sarah Hall in her first road race. That tells me she has some major upside ahead

Mechanix wrote:

She still runs as a triathlete form wise. Kinda looks like she just came off the bike. Shoulders way too high and tense, and turn up the cadence a little. Sara runs way more efficiently and Gwen seems to try and use her long legs as an advantage maybe a little too much.

And why did she and Galen Rupp wear the same split shorts today???

+1

Sara is very smooth and her stride looks suited to the marathon, perhaps the marathon training has changed her stride to become efficient and look as it does? Many of the Japanese female runners have similar looking form. Gwen still looks like a 5k/10k runner.

Raysism wrote:

reed wrote:

Why is everybody so concerned with her stride? Look at the women who are actually winning global marathon titles...few have perfect strides.

Also, a 70 minute half is good progress at this point. That's approaching fast enough to make the olympic team if other things go her way. Desi's never broken 70min for a half, and Gwen already has similar 5k-10k PRs (Desi 15:08/31:37 vs 15:15/31:55). Plus Desi hasn't touched those marks in years.

Ordinarily I'd be inclined to agree with you, but wow does her gait look inefficient. Her shoulders are turning so much that her elbows get almost directly behind her spine. And I'm sure it looks worse than the other elites because of her height.

Any experienced coaches on here have any thoughts on her form?

She's not training like a marathoner yet so her form hasn't changed. If she had been running 20-23 mile runs on a weekly basis for 12 months then her form would look quite different. Smoother and closer to the ground.

Ashley Brasovan, former footlocker champ, was in the field too. Good to see her doing well.

People with money to spend????

Scorpion_runner wrote:

I just think Gwen's entire attempt is ushering in a show business approach to the world of running, which is

attracting all the wrong attention and all the wrong viewers.

No you are not off base at all. It's a great start. I think Chicago will be her debut.

AmIoffbase wrote:

Guys.

Am I off-base here in thinking that Gwen's debut was actually a huge success?

She is entirely new to the sport and gave birth 8 months ago.... and still was only 1 minute behind Sara Hall (who ran a 2:27 at CIM)

I think that is a hell of a debut. She has a LOT to learn.. her stride is awkward and I think she needs to pack on some muscle, but I see HUGE upside for her.

I wouldn't bet against someone who is new to a sport and comes up only 1 min slower than Sarah Hall in her first road race. That tells me she has some major upside ahead

Breastfeeding also burns extra calories. When she stops, she will probably be able to gain some muscle and probably sleep better. She can definitely improve whereas Hall is probably close to her limit.

HMMMM wrote:

People with money to spend????

Scorpion_runner wrote:

I just think Gwen's entire attempt is ushering in a show business approach to the world of running, which is

attracting all the wrong attention and all the wrong viewers.

Exactly. Scorpion runner must be insane. At this point, attracting anybody new to the sport is a plus. More fans and hobby joggers of any stripe means more money for elites.

Scorpion_runner is (probably) a Nike cast off who was dropped last year in favor of Gwen. The vitriol you spew here make it clear to me you have a personal issue with Gwen Jorgensen. So BIG question is - what female distance runners were dropped from Nike contracts last year?

vivalarepublica wrote:

HMMMM wrote:

People with money to spend????

Exactly. Scorpion runner must be insane. At this point, attracting anybody new to the sport is a plus. More fans and hobby joggers of any stripe means more money for elites.