Looks like Jim Walmsley is running a mountain race tomorrow - predictions?

letsbereal wrote:

I think if this guy is as good as people say as he needs to ditch the ultra running and focus on the Marathon, if hes not PEDing, then he can hit OTQ easily. The issue is PEDs aren't even tested for for crap in Ultra running which is why its flooded with cheaters.

WHY? As an ultrarunner he's making good money, winning a bunch of races, and gets to do all kinds of interesting shit; as a marathoner he'd be another 2:14-15 guy just scraping by, trying to get that one perfect race so he can qualify for the Olympics and finish 20th. It would be a stupid move.

Dance Off wrote:

Factoid wrote:

Look at a guy like Zach Miller. 31 minute 10k runner. Trains his a$$ of at altitude, while chopping wood. He was instantly a star when he debuted in the ultra world nearly taking down Max King's CR at JFK

You know nothing, he was working on a cruise ship, running hallway stairs and readmill inclines with occasional port long runs in random cities before that race. Not chopping wood, not living at altitude. Im crying your so dumb

your actually both wrong. factoid didn't explicitly say that Zach was doing altitude training before JFK. factoid was still wrong though because Zach never beat King's course record at JFK. I believe Zach ran 5:38ish and Max had run 5:34 or something.

anyway, before you go calling people names online, be sure you're not wrong.

my butthurt detector is going crazy

letsbereal wrote:

I think if this guy is as good as people say as he needs to ditch the ultra running and focus on the Marathon, if hes not PEDing, then he can hit OTQ easily. The issue is PEDs aren't even tested for for crap in Ultra running which is why its flooded with cheaters.

hes not ditching it but will try to pull a Sage and compete for 2020 oly marathon trials but will actually do well like Tim, David and Max in 2015-2016. if Jim stays consistent and injury free his biggest years will be 2018-2019. Probably with a Comrades win and a 2:10+ road marathon on US soil. So, maybe 2016 will be UTMB win, WS win.

PEDophile wrote:

I think if dude isn't using peds he should show up to the Pikes Peak Ascent this year and face off against Joe Grey. .

Did you even read the rest of the thread? I already went through this once.

There is a Joe GRAY that runs and a Jonathon GREY that runs.

THERE IS NO JOE GREY THAT RUNS VERY FAST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Let's have some basic reading comprehension here: I also never said Zach got King's CR at JFK. That's the "nearly took down" part. Jim smashed that record last fall anyway.We also all know track 5km PBs are the best indicator of 100k and 100-miler ultra marathon success, right?

reed wrote:

Dance Off wrote:

You know nothing, he was working on a cruise ship, running hallway stairs and readmill inclines with occasional port long runs in random cities before that race. Not chopping wood, not living at altitude. Im crying your so dumb

your actually both wrong. factoid didn't explicitly say that Zach was doing altitude training before JFK. factoid was still wrong though because Zach never beat King's course record at JFK. I believe Zach ran 5:38ish and Max had run 5:34 or something.

anyway, before you go calling people names online, be sure you're not wrong.

Your kidding me right? Joe grey is like 10 x's world mountain runner dude. What are you talking about.

Either this thread is is mostly contributed by 7th graders or ultra fans are downright bizarre.

I thought the same thing, I am fairly certain that most of the replies are by small children which is flat out weird because children don't even do ultra running.

This is for zzzz:Good to compare to Camille. It would be foolish to use a single data point and extrapolate road marathon times all the way up to 100km on the trails.We can say Jim had some learning experiences and bonks in '14 and '15 with his ultra career. Happens to road marathon runners like you mentioned from time to time when they take risks in championship style racing. At 2015 IAAF Worlds 100km on the road Camille finished just behind Jim in 7:08 (Jim ran around 7:00). Jonas Budd won that race in 6:22. That is a 10% difference. Camille has run in the 2:30s for the marathon, but we can ignore that. Jim just beat Jonas head to head yesterday by nearly 50 minutes in a 7 hr race. Again look how consistently "on" or "off" Jim has been over the years:Jim in 2015 v. -----> Jim "2.0" in 2016LS50: 6:41 ---> 6:00JFK50: 5:47 ----> 5:21 ( after also running 5:56 in 2014)Grand Canyon: struggles to run 3:00 one way-----> 5:55 round-trip FKTStagecoach 55k: 4:40 -----> 3:30

zzzz wrote:

duzn wrote:

Sorry to break it to you guys but this guy is on PEDS and we all known it, he made way to big of jump in a year and a half. We want him to be clean but he doesn.t

Most of us don't seem to think so, though I wouldn't ever say no way for anyone I am not personally close to.

Compare his time to Camille's women's winning time. Her time is only 21% slower. She didn't have a great year last year, and her 50K IAU WC win in 2015 3:20:58 was the equivalent of a 2:48 marathon performance, unless the course was hilly or something. If she's in 2:48 marathon shape, 2:48 is 21% slower than 2:18. Or if she is in 2:45 marathon shape, the men's equivalent is 2:16. Proportionally to Camille's time, Walmsley's time seems reasonable.

my bad

he ran 4:04 at Stagecoach 55km in 2015 (not 4:40). Got it down to 3:30 this year.

Just some results from his "Ultra-Signup" page.

You numbnuts are hilarious. You post how SLOW ultra guys are to real runners (marathoners) but then you accuse them of peds when they dominate the so called no competition ultras.

Factoid wrote:

At 2015 IAAF Worlds 100km on the road Camille finished just behind Jim in 7:08 (Jim ran around 7:00). Jonas Budd won that race in 6:22. That is a 10% difference. Camille has run in the 2:30s for the marathon, but we can ignore that.

Camille's marathon PR is 2:37:14 from the 2012 Trials. Looking at her marathon results from Marathonguide.com:

2016: 2:52:02

2015: 2:42:48, 2:48:42, 2:51:28, 2:54:55, 2:54:26

2014: 2:42:04, 2:43:42, 2:44:27, 2:45:54, 2:51:20, 2:58:45

Of course she has the World 100K and 50K Championships in 2015 in a result that's worth about 2:48. A lot of the slower marathons were probably done with little taper or soon after another marathon, so it's fair to give more consideration of the faster ones, but the yearly series of marathons also tells a story. And she switched focus to ultras in 2015. 2016 was a lousy year for her by her account. Overall, she's been slowing down since her peak in 2012 because she's getting older (35 now). From the irunfar pre-race interview, she has apparently been training well since that November 2016 2:52. I think it's fair to say 2:48 is a better and maybe even optimistic estimate for her fitness yesterday than "she has run in the 2:30s for the marathon". Again 2:48 is like 2:18 for men if you are using the same percent back that she was behind Walmsley. Maybe it's more like a 2:20 marathon effort for Walmsley, because he trains on hills, and Camille lives in flatland and doesn't do any climbing in training.

I watched part of the Jonas Buud pre-race interview on irunfar and he was constantly complaining about his bad back. The complaining was so bad, I had to shut it off. He seemed like a broken man. After the race he was complained about blowing out his quads on downhills very early because of not enough training.

Walmsley's performance yesterday was great, but not mind blowing at all - certainly not enough to garner drug accusations. Buud is a really good runner, but wasn't in great form, and the field was kind of thin.

Factoid wrote:

This is for zzzz:

Good to compare to Camille. It would be foolish to use a single data point and extrapolate road marathon times all the way up to 100km on the trails.

And to further clarify, I did not extrapolate road marathon times all the way up to 100K on trails. I showed that the percent he was ahead of Camille is reasonable by showing what the same percentage would look when translated to marathon times.

Factoid, looks like I misread your post about beating Max Kings CR at JFK.

I wish people would stop using Walmsleys 100k in China as some source of info. If you've seen video of that race, Jim took off comically fast and was literally laughing at himself as he finished laps, knowing how stupid he was running. There are photos of him shrugging to the US team staff.

As for Camille Herron's many marathon times around 2:49 from the last few years, I doubt those were big target races for her. Did she win most of those? People who are trying to run marathon PRs don't typically run that many per year.

Somebody mentioned Jim doing a road marathon by 2020. I hope he does but I wouldn't count on it. I'll call 2:14

reed wrote:

As for Camille Herron's many marathon times around 2:49 from the last few years, I doubt those were big target races for her. Did she win most of those? People who are trying to run marathon PRs don't typically run that many per year.

No disagreement here. I just think that that's a good guess for her fitness now, and that's what I wanted to use for a percent-back comparison with Walmsley for this weekend's race. She probably did win all those marathons that I listed (except OTs), and was not going for a PR in them, but the same could be said for the race the other day.

Hilarious some jackweed calls himself factoid and doesn't know a Buud from a Budd!!!