Laura Muir 5000m in 14:49.12!! INDOORS

Ventolin, please stop. Komen would never have won that race, that day, in 3:43. Head to head with Guerrouj, he never ever won.

Actually US legend Bob Schul has implied that Clarke was on steroids.

http://www.garycohenrunning.com/Interviews/Schul.aspx

"Jazy and Clarke were running so well only about six months after the Tokyo games. I thought to myself that this was unusual – not running well, but breaking World Records repeatedly just days apart. When I look back at my own hard workouts prior to my breaking the World Record in the 2-mile and how long it took to recover from the race, recovery took about a week. I could do light workouts, but my body was not ready to push through hard workouts and walk away with something left. I thought there was something wrong with how Jazy and Clarke were racing and recovering. In 1964 there were rumors that most weight men were using steroids, but they weren’t illegal yet as they were so new. They were just used with other supplements like protein powder. Everyone thought it was only the weight men who were possibly using steroids to improve their efforts, but it seems that Jazy and Clarke may have used them in 1965. When time passed after they both retired and five years later they each had heart problems I thought, ‘Aha, there was something wrong.’ Steroids allow an athlete to recover quickly and also lead to heart problems, so it sure looked suspicious. But again, remember they were not illegal, but we know now how much help they can provide"

went through 3000m in 8:59

http://thepowerof10.info/results/results.aspx?meetingid=181288

Not a crazy progression? That's like going from 3:40 low to 3:27 high in three years.

jjjjjjj wrote:

Not a crazy progression? That's like going from 3:40 low to 3:27 high in three years.

3:55 at 23

3:58 at 22

4:00 at 21

4:07 at 20

4:14 at 19

cali boy wrote:

I'd believe Dibaba was clean before I'd believe that any of these athletes were. Which is seriously saying something given that her coach was caught with a mountain of EPO.

^This.

To think a 3:55 woman is most likely clean, reveals an ignorance of the history of the 1500.

On top of that in this particular UK case remember:

- the Aden connection

- the fact that UKAD never ever caught anyone in an out-of-competition test

- the fact that the UK outperformed the Russians in the last two Olympics

- Lord Coe's anti-transparency stance.

Really...? wrote:

jjjjjjj wrote:

Not a crazy progression? That's like going from 3:40 low to 3:27 high in three years.

3:55 at 23

3:58 at 22

4:00 at 21

4:07 at 20

4:14 at 19

Will nobody admit that this progression shows a very talented teenager improving year on year into a world class athlete?

jjjjjjj wrote:

Not a crazy progression? That's like going from 3:40 low to 3:27 high in three years.

Only in Africa to people run their fastest times as 'teenagers' and then never improve after that.

Wonder why?

Well done to Laura Muir. Smashed the Yanks in the 4x1km in the cross country today.

Love how salty a lot of you posters are! Sad and weak!

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:Komen would never have won that race, that day, in 3:43. Head to head with Guerrouj, he never ever won.

i suggest you learn some history & watch some races seeing as you don't seem to have seen many of them live at the time

hicham ran a virtually perfect race, route-1 with drafting by komen to bell

hicham probably good for 3'44-flat that day at even pace, considering he ran 3'44.9 that year

Komen had disastrous race, with baulked twice at start, huge amount extra run on bends, suicidal sprint in 1st 200, drafting hicham & little drafting himself & still finished with a 54-low with wide bend running on last bend !!!

Komen was in 3'43+ shape

he had enough in hand, that if he had not had disaster of 1st lap & himself drafted to bell with hicham behind, he coud conceivably have outkicked hicham on last lap

hicham was very good in '97 but not in '98 shape & coud be beat

cacho almost did it & Komen in '97 was quantum leap quicker than cacho

here is race i saw live on satellite in '97 which you clearly didn't & gives an indication of hicham's ability in '97 :

Nobody cares. Fck off.

cali boy wrote:I don't think it's unreasonable to make the assumption that certain PEDs will seriously skew any predictive trendlines

no

they don't

they just give some surprising figures for certain distances but entirely predictable

EPO increases the oxygen carrying capacity of red blood cells; I assume it has a much higher impact on the endurance end of the spectrum than the speed side

yes

but entirely predictable times regardless, as long as you have accurate input

and you'll see trends of the sort you would not see in a clean athlete

no

you will still get accurate predictions if you have valid input

let's use wang, in '93 shape who some may assume was not clean

canova posted he had 1st hand info she coudn't run faster than 55.5

her 10k wr of 29'31 was a joke, with jog to 5k of 15'05 & last 5k of 14'26 !!!

that easily indicates an even-pace 10k that day of ~ 29'10 - 29'15

let's see what we get :

55.5 / 29'10 - 29'15 ->

1'57.24 - 1'57.33

2'29.07 - 2'29.21

3'50.45 - 3'50.76

5'13.75 - 5'14.25

8'04.32 - 8'05.26

13'55.97 - 13'57.93

i suggest you look up her her 1500/3k pbs in '93 & more importantly, the splits, to estimate what she couda run for 1500/3k at even-pace & compare to above

then tell us that you can't predict times for runners who might have been doping....

what made-up times ???

canova has said wang was not capable of < 55.5, so i used it with an estimate for her even-pace 10k, or do you think 29'31 was her 10k ability when she finished last 5k with 14'26 !! & last 3k with 8'17 !!!

not a dozen, but plenty

my all-time flat-out, even-paced, drafted to bell on synthetic track list is :

Ryun - 3'24-low

hicham - 3'25-low

Keino 3'25-low/mid

Asbel - 3'25-mid/high

Silas - 3'25-mid/high

Noah - 3'25-mid/high

aouita - 3'26-mid

morceli - 3'26-mid

mo - 3'27-flat

doper ramzi worth 3'25-mid/high in '08 & maloofi ~ 3'26-mid/high in '12

that's 11 guys at 3'27-flat or better, including 1 convicted doper & 1 likely to have been

using online calculator

i doubt that's how that calculator works

you do realise that using wr is a nonsense

it is just the pb of a particular guy

hicham finished 3'26.00 with 53.2 !!!

he quite legitimately can claim that pacing was too slow to bell with noah pacing in 2'32-mid, when it shouda been 2'31-mid & hicham shouda been looking at ~ 3'25-low

online pay-calculator

why woud i want to know any "slope" or "trendline" ???

i want to know their theoretical clocking for a perfect race, not some useless meaningless info

why shoud any athlete have any "uniqueness" when there are millions of runners to draw info from to get equations to model them ??!!

the only way an athlete can be unique is if they have non-human physiology & dope doesn't give you non-human physiology, it just accentuates normal physiology & still is modelable

trollism wrote:Only in Africa to people run their fastest times as 'teenagers' and then never improve after that.

Wonder why?

their ambition in making some $$$ satisfied they lack motivation & go back home & buy a farm ?!

you have been told numerous times to employ some logic & repeatedly fail :

east african runners make peanuts at home usually as farm labourers, & 99% of them run track to make $$$

a quality 800 - 10k guy coud make $50k/y

please explain to world, if their ambition therefore is to get onto diamond league circuit as soon as possible, if they are not actual teen-agers but by your implication more like 25y when they turn-up on circuit, why on earth woud they be so stoopid to be hanging around at home for 5y earning peanuts, throwing away ~ $250k+ if they'd spent those 5y+ on diamond league circuit ???

or is it hugely more likely that they train their ass off to get as fast as possible to get onto circuit, often as teen-agers, make $100 - 150K in 2 or 3 seasons, buy a huge farm with that back home which sets up them/family for life, then lack interest in track & give-up ?

why aren't 1'43 or 3'31 teenagers who turn up on debut season not there on 2nd tier circuit year before running 1'44 or 3'32 ???

or season before running 1'45 or 3'34 in 3rd tier meets ???

they'd still make ~ $25k/y in that shape of 1'44 or 3'32, so why not run 2nd tier circuit instead of peanuts back home as labourer ???

is it because they are teen-agers at the time training their ass off to get to 1'43 or 3'31 potential to get noticed by managers or by your implication, sauntering along earn peanuts as a labourer then decide 1-day at 25y to become 1'43 or 3'31 guys ???

So you're making claims by plugging theoretical (read: made up) times into a calculation system that you don't understand.

And you expect people to take you seriously?

RE: trendlines and uniqueness.

Your software appears to be modeling athletes' times based off some sort of logarithmic trendline (you don't seem to have a clue how your software works so I can't say for certain). Assuming this is correct, it has to be getting the equation for this curve somewhere (probably from aggregate data of several thousand athletes). Specific athletes can and will be outliers to this aggregate curve, with or without PEDs.

An average curve, especially one based off of thousands of results, will not do anything better than give you a ballpark range for the performances of one unique individual. To claim theoretical times with the accuracy you have is ludicrous.

tl;dr learn how your calculator works

back to possibilities upcoming for this impressive past-faced youth

she shoud look for an indoor 1500/2k this year

her indoor 400pb is : 55.36 from indoors 1y ago

http://www.thepowerof10.info/athletes/profile.aspx?athleteid=19602

i'd suggest she is similar to that right now, not much quicker as she was damn quick at 1500 last year already !

however, "pure" 1500 runners usually have no clue about pacing a 400, let alone indoors

even i'm not sure what are ideal splits for ideal 400 outdoors, let alone indoors

whether 0.75 or 1s +ve splits for the 200s outdoors & the slowing 100s are tricky because of ~ 0.25s handicap of bends compared to straights

( it's something for someone to look at & then for discussion as oddly it is not a topic i find interesting but it has become interesting with 43.03 & needs analysis )

anyhows, she shoud defintely be capable of 55-flat indoors now or last year if she had "ideal" splits for 400

her 14'49 was unpaced beyond 1800 when she woud normally expect pacing to 3k, costing at least 2s from 0.7s/400m

also, she ran pre-planned 3'00km to 4k & blasted last 1k

she definitely couda gone close to 14'40 with even-pace & drafted to 3k

-> if she runs a 800 indoors current shape ->

55.00 / 14'40 ->

1'58.45

2'31.47

3'56.47

5'24.07

that woud get her ~ 15th on list

https://www.iaaf.org/records/toplists/middlelong/800-metres/indoor/women/senior

however, 5k is not her hitting-zone, so 14'40 indoors is off "1500 training" & 5k is too far away from 1500 & she has indicated she is in very good 1500 shape, which i woud reckon be around 3'56/3'57 indoors

( don't be fooled, the outstandingly beautiful bleached-blonde soboleva when she ran 3'57.7 indoor wr was likely in 3'53/3'54 outdoor shape at time )

this is why it is useful having access to a calculator

if i was "team-laura" :

"gal

you can probably run 1'58-low which is great time, but you can run 2nd fastest ever 1500 but smash szabo's 2k wr of 5'30.53 by 6s !!!

you can't run 3'55 indoors yet, but have a wr to destroy in the 2k, so let's go for that !!!"

if young pasty-faced gal or her team follow this board, i suggest you shoud be looking at 3'56 or 5'24 indoors if you chase the clock

interestingly, if you aim for latter & get it, it woud be absolute wr indoors or out, last time done by emiel in '73 when he ran 8'13.2

that may be only time ever when an indoor clocking was faster than outdoor

someone look up any other run indoors faster than outdoor wr ?

https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/belgium/emiel-puttemans-6892

http://www.racingpast.ca/john_contents.php?id=227

even when ovett ran legendary race outdoors to beat a completely exhausted rono in '78, he still didn't beat emiel's time !!!

( i'd be very impressed if someone knows what the indoor 2 mile wr that emiel beat was ? )

First of all Ridiculo, I saw those races on TV as they happened and recorded them on my vcr. So please refrain from the hasty assertions.

Secondly, I was in Paris during the World Championships and had a trackside seat to the final day where the men's 5000m was run in the fastest time ever in a championship race (Kipchoge, El Guerrouj and Bekele).

Thirdly, Cacho is one example of 'theee' most successful 1500m runners of all time. His 1500m pb is quicker than Komen's but it would be moronic to say, looking at his mile time, that Komen would not have run faster over 1500m had he focused on it. But again the truth is Komen never defeated him over any distance.

It's not even his website.

It is just a random calculator that comes up with a logarithmic curve based upon two data points, designed for horse races that calculo has decided to hijack and use to 2 decimal place accuracy to seem smart.

It even says on the site "do not use for distances under 400m" but he plugs in a made up 400m time every time he uses it. Literally putting in a data point on the edge of what is considered categorically inaccurate by the creator, to then choose an exponent based upon that.

Mad. Ness.

is this a joke ???

satellite subscription in '90s was damn expensive !!!

few coud afford it

is this a joke ???

if you had satellite in '90s & saw race live, you wouda known how close cacho came to beating hicham in '97

no mention of this huge race indicates you had no idea how close cacho came to beating hicham in '97

so ?

i saw 1500 final in '04 in games in stadium, immensely superior occasion

the best 1500 final since keino-'68, when likely in 3'25+ shape if fully rested, even without run-to-stadium to get to final, in 1-off at sea-level

is this a joke ???

is this a joke ???

can't you analyse ???

Komen's '97 berlin mile was disastrous !!!

he shouda run

~ 3'43+

that day ideally

how on earth was cacho's 3'28+ anywhere close ???

is this a joke ???

Komen did concentrate on 1500 in '97 if you hadn't watched

he ran intrinsic 3'43+ in berlin which with 1.08 conversion is

~ 3'26+

so,

how on earth do you figure Komen was in intrinsic 3'43+ shape in '97, if he didn't concentrate on mile ???

is this a joke ???

only serious time Komen met hicham & in criminally large field with Komen stuck buried in outerer lane !!!

guy was in

3'43+

& promoter had no clue but buried him in netherworld of lanes ???!!!

this couda been greatest mile race in history but promoter wrecked it with criminal huge field :

Komen here in

3'43+