Official 2016 Shanghai DL Live Discussion Thread

I don't know where you ar getting these projections from, but Ayana is a gradual pace runner. She is deadly because she understands how to slowly increase pacing, she doesn't have a kick, her plan is always to wear out kickers with her exhausting pace.

To this day she is still slower all-time than Defar and Tiru Dibaba in the 5K and neither of those legends had the speed to get anywhere near 3:56 in the met mile. (Defar's PR in the 1500 is 4:02! Tiru has never even attempted the event)

Defar and Ayana are pure 5K runners moving up or down. Tiru is a pure 10K. Genzebe and Faith and Hassan are pure mile moving up (Kipyegon and Hassan have both run fast 800s too) .

Bad Wigins wrote:

Head to head my money's on Sifan to outkick Faith most of the time.

Do you realize that the last two times they have raced (Beijing, Brussels mile) Hassan had a lead on Kipyegon at 100m and was soundly outkicked by Faith both times?

I thought Ventolin had been banned from these boards? It's so obvious he is just posting same nonsense as 'learn to watch' and 'no chance hassan'

LOL.

What's the point of banning him when he will just use different names. Let's see how long until he starts calling others names using these new handles?

learn to watch wrote:

as for "not having gear change in tactical race", that is nonsnse as he won gold last year in a 1'45.8 with a

12.2 !!!

that is fastest ever finish in a major 1'45+ race !!!

No Ventolin, Tuka ran a faster last 100m in the same race! 12.1

Rudisha ran 12.2 at end of 1:45.84

Tuka ran 12.1 at end of 1:46.30

Coe ran 12.0 at end of 1:46.16 in the 81 World Cup, easing up.

So No, Rudisha doesn't have the fastest last 100m in a comparable 1:46 flat race.

And tbh it's somewhat a moot point anyway. The fastest last 100m tells us that the guy has good top end speed, it doesn't necessarily equate to having a quick 'gear change', which is what I wrote. It's quite clear by looking at races that Rudisha doesn't have the best 'turn of speed' of even the current elites. He has one of the best top end (400m) speeds, and the best speed endurance for 800m when at his best, but he doesn't have the best change in pace, and this makes him vulnerable in medium paced (1:45 -1:47) races, when he has people crowding him.

Rudisha was standing 1m behind the line when gun went. He starts 'running at 0.6 (0.8, as on screen clock slow by 0.2) He was over the line at 1.0 sec (1.2).

At this point the rest of the field are about 8m ahead.

He has gone 3.5m (the length between the staggered start lines for 800m between each consecutive lane) at 2.0secs

Rudisha starts running 'normally' at 3.0 (3.2) secs into race, at which point he's travelled approx 9m. The rest of the field have, on average, covered c. 17m. At this point Rimmer in lane 1 seems to have covered the most ground, and he is level (stagger taken into consideration) with the 800m start line in lane 6, which is 5 x 3.5 = 17.5m.

At most Rudisha spots them 10m, which is generous. He loses about 1.2 secs, meaning his final time of 1:46.24 is equivalent to a 1:45.0

Rudisha goes through 100m in 13.6 (13.4 shown on screen), which means it would have felt more like a 12.4, fast, but he's started races plenty faster than that in the past!

He then goes (times are what he would have actually gone through when 0.2 difference between on screen clock and official timing is added)-

200m - 25.4 (11.8 for that 100m stretch - a bit too fast and he should have got to the front more gradually for about 350m, but again, not unheard of)

300m - 39.2 (13.8 100m section)

400m - 52.9 (13.7 " ") which would have felt more like 51.7.

500m - 1:06.3 (13.4 " ")

600m - 1:19.6 (13.3 " ")

700m - 1:32.7 (13.0 " ") And before you start calling me names for there not being a 'clear' 100m line, the edges of one can be seen, and he also passes the 90m line in 1:34.0, which validates a 1:32.7 700m split.

800m - 1:46.24 (13.5 last 100m)

So we have, if we take out the 1.2 secs he lost at the start, 200m splits of-

24.2, 27.5, 26.7 (a 400m section from 200 - 600 in 54.2, which is v slow and more than enough respite for the fast 2nd 100m) & 26.6.

At no point after 200m does Rudisha run a 100m section in under 13.0 secs.

Psychologically the awful start might have cost him more in terms of performance, but his actual physical display certainly does not show someone in 1:42 flat shape as you suggest. Far from it. It looked more like someone in 1:44 low shape who got spooked. I suspect if he runs again in the next 2 weeks he should be looking for a 1:43 mid.

learn to read

i said no one has run that fast in a 1'45+

neither tula or coe ran 1'45+

both ran 1'46s

go fetch me a race with 12.2 with finish time in 12.2 or quicker

the claim that guy with fastest ever 100m finish in a 1'45+ race doesn't have best turn of speed is nonsense

12.2 speed is 48.8 pace !!!

also, are you unaware of the fact that he destroyed a WC field in a tactical race with this turn of speed ?!

to kick at 700m is hardest turn of speed of all, far harder than 200 out as less runway to do damage in

Big-Man showed best kick ever in a 1'45+ major race

as for race :

he doesn't cross line until 1.0s on clock with field upto 8m ahead, that is an already 8m handicap which only grows as he dawdles about whilst others charge off

as for rimmer's distance run at 3.2s, you are hugely wrong

he is between the 8th & 9th lane cones extended to curve, much closer to 9th one

now, basic math has failed you

9th lane cone which he is nearer is 30.9m from start

9th lane has diameter of ~ ( 36.5 + ( 1.22 * 8 ) ) * pi = 145.33m

therefore angle subtended is (30.9 / 145.33) * 360 = 76.5 degrees

therefore rimmer in lane 1 when very close to lane 9 cone extended to lane 1 has run upto

(76.5 / 360 ) * ( 36.5 * pi ) = 24.4m

he is just shy of 9th cone, therefore rimmer has run

~ 24m

Big-Man has therefore lost to field, not a nonsense 10m, but

24.0 - 9 =

15m

he also started ~ 1m behind line at gun so that becomes 16m

he therefore is in effect in a 16m handicap race where his actual running time is 1'46.24 - time of 1.2s at crossing line - 0.2s for easing off at finish when passed by coupla guys

= 1'44.8+

for 16m handicap ->

(1'44.8+) * ( 800/816 ) =

1'42.8 !!!

as for 1st 100m in 13.6

his 16m handicap is present in this

13.6 - 1.2s before starting line crossed = 12.4s

12.4s with 16m handicap -> "effective" 100m effort of

12.4 * ( 100/116 ) =

10.7s !!!

he put in a virtual total all out sprint effort in that initial 100m !!!

he started a 800 in an effective 10.7s !!!

his 200m split on clock is 25.1 or 25.3 actual which minus 1.2s before crossing line means 24.1 actual 200 split

this has a 16m handicap included

24.1 * ( 200/216 ) =

22.3 !!!

your 200 - 700 analysis offer nothing of use

to go out in "effective" 10.7 & 22.3 has ruined his race immediately & there is no recovery from that no matter how slow a 100 or 200 he puts in later

all that does is make him lose even worse

as for nonsense of not running a 100 anywhere in sub-13 after 200m, what on earth effect did you think an "effective" initial 100m of 10.7s start did you think have to do with this ?!

the assertion that was an 1'44-low effort is nonsense

he put in a 1'42.8 "effort" with a 10.7 & 22.3 effective intial start !!!

to put into comparison, the 100 & 200 starts for various 2s +ve split 800s shoud be

1'44.00 -> 12.5 & 25.25

1'43.00 -> 12.37 & 25.00

1'42.00 -> 12.25 & 24.75

1'41.00 -> 12.12 & 24.50

1'40.00 -> 12.00 & 24.25

a 22.3 start is that expected in a 1'32.2 !!!

a 10.7 start is that expected in a 1'29.6 !!!!

he put in utterly ludicrous splits of effectively 10.7 & 22.3 & still held on for an intrinsic ~ 1'42.8

the Big-Man's shape looking at those, the worst & most suicidal start in 800m history indicates a shape deep below 1'42 currently

evenning out the "effectives" :

10.7 then 11.6 for 22.3 at 200 then last 600 of 80.5 for 1'42.8 ->

~ 1'41.3

& even physics breaks down at unfathomable start of 10.7 !!!

the lactate levels after a 10.7 can't be imagined

he is very very close to his '12 shape

Boost wrote:

I don't know where you ar getting these projections from, but Ayana is a gradual pace runner. She is deadly because she understands how to slowly increase pacing, she doesn't have a kick, her plan is always to wear out kickers with her exhausting pace.

To this day she is still slower all-time than Defar and Tiru Dibaba in the 5K and neither of those legends had the speed to get anywhere near 3:56 in the met mile. (Defar's PR in the 1500 is 4:02! Tiru has never even attempted the event)

Defar and Ayana are pure 5K runners moving up or down. Tiru is a pure 10K. Genzebe and Faith and Hassan are pure mile moving up (Kipyegon and Hassan have both run fast 800s too) .

tiru/defar never ran serious 1500/3k albeit defar broke 9'00 for 2 miles with 8'58, worth 8'18+

her best shape was following year

as for tiru, it's genetics : similar runner to genze but at 5k peak, more 5k & likely 3k than 10k but ran 10k as supposed "easy gold"

genze clearly 1500/3k/5k gal

ayana ran 14'14 with poor pacing gone by 2k instead of 3k & only on for 14'30 at 2k !!!

easily 14'10 that day with good pacing to 3k on temperate day

ask yourself what any college guy of 14'10 coud run for 1500 & i bet you'll get ~ 3'52/3'53 & that's certainly applicable to tiru/defar & i'd say ayana right there

Any college guy? LOL. You're comparing guys to girls now? It's a completely different physiology.

Ayana is also slower than both Obiri and Mercy Cherono in the 3K, neither of whom has broken 3:58 in the 1500. Obiri has the clean outdoor 3K WR and 1500 is her main event.

Ayana would not get anywhere near 3:56, She would probably be around 4:02, if that. Defar has a lot more speed and better kick and that was her PR. But 3:52? LMAO. That's absurd. I guarantee you she will never even run that event.

But Kipyegon will get 3:52, I guarantee that.

as stated, Big-Man in already tremendous shape

his birmingham 1'13.10 was very windy with twice going into wind according to commentators

he also ran near suicidal 23.3 /47.1 when probably for this obscure distance you need to look for ~ 0.4s slowing splits / 200

therefore, ideal for 1'13.1 shoud be ~

23.9+

48.3+

->

1'13.1

he was stoopidly quick at 200 & just at bad at 400

wind was very bad as commentators said before/during & after in interview

in addition, Big Man said he misjudged splits as above shows is statement of huge obvious

with ideal splits, he shouda broken WR, maybe 1'12.6/1'12.7 at worst

the wind easily cost him 0.5s

( don't be fooled by bosse, he drafted behind Big-Guy upto ~ 500 & got huge drafting + shielding from wind whacking )

i'd reckon Big Man is in

~ 1'12.1/1'12.2

on 0 wind day, solo

his 400 speed has got to be ~ 45-flat at worst off ridiculous 47.1 split, perhaps 44.75

the Big Man is possibly currently in

Solo

44.75 - 45.00 / 1'12.1 - 1'12.2 ->

1'40.49 - 1'41.07 !!!

bosse maye be in 1'41-mid/high

Big Man is very close to '12...