If the race goes out in 70 it's not going to string out and have people 5-6 seconds off the front. It'll bunch and the furthest back anyone would be is around 2 seconds.
If the race goes out in 70 it's not going to string out and have people 5-6 seconds off the front. It'll bunch and the furthest back anyone would be is around 2 seconds.
Octa wrote:
It is to break down Farah if Kenyans or Ethiopians run as a team and put down a blistering pace. The problem though has been that Kenyans or Ethiopian today run more as individuals today than before. This is very true for Kenya except for the steeplechase when you can see Kemboi looking out and motioning at his teammates. The only way this happens is if it comes from above (in matters of national pride) or if one of the countrymates is not as fit and therefore sacrifices himself with a blistering first half. However, if all Ethiopians and Kenyans are in top form, they will not agree on who is to step down. If these were the times when Bekele or Haile dominated, then it the hierarchy is straight-foward but currently, both teams have several good guys who could interchange depending on fitness and the conditions.
I completely agree with you. But if they don't work as a team, no one has a chance. They must agree to do this or hope he has a terrible day or gets hurt.
I just realized that Gebremeskel doesn't even have the standard in the 5000 this year after running 12:46 last year.
He just has a 13:31 he ran in New York.
He hast that fast 26:51 10,000 and nothing else.
He's the big mystery. Obviously juts running the 10,000 in Moscow.
And Jeilan ran a couple of 5000's and disappeared.
These two present a serious threat to Farah in the 10,000 and are not displaying their fitness by racing right now.
Gebremeskel was boxed badly in his 5000 Silver run last year. Jeilan showed a crazy kick two years ago.
If they can sit and kick without traffic, there's a chance of one of them beating Farah.
GET IMANE MERGA TO SHOVE OR TRIP HIM.
I am not sure why it is a forgone conclusion that he can beat Edwin Soi. He was better p.r.s at the 3000m and 5000m and has beaten him this year. Don't give me any bs about a stomach bug. They both ran 53 point on the last lap and Soi beat him. Farah might have just got lucky that Soi wasn't in last year's Olympic 5000m.
Taking it from the the start is one of those dumb tactics. The hard break with 2k to go where you can get 2 or 3seconds on Mo because he can't react instantly is far more likely to have success.Or you could use team tactics. Send your 3 guys to the front. At the start of the turn someone picks up to 62s pace while the other guys slow the pace to 80s. Huge pile up and tons of traffic. Then make Mo have to chase that leader down (making sure to make him run wide as much as possible). When he does, repeat the action on the next turn with a different runner. Either he lets a break form, hopes someone else chases them down, or wastes a ton of energy. If the kenyans and ethopians worked together you could have a 2 man break and 4 man wall for Mo to deal with.Obviously you can tweak this tactic for the last lap but boxing Mo in. He is fast but if you give a couple tenths of a second to anyone that is hard to make up in the last 300ms.
Brianruns10 wrote:
I think the only way at this point would be for someone to run a gutsy race, take it from the start, and try to gap him enough that his kick can't cover the distance. And even still, this would be a huge gamble, and likely to fail 9 out of 10. The fellow would have to have ideal conditions and run the race of his life.
asdfaafdafasd wrote:
Taking it from the the start is one of those dumb tactics. The hard break with 2k to go where you can get 2 or 3seconds on Mo because he can't react instantly is far more likely to have success.
Or you could use team tactics. Send your 3 guys to the front. At the start of the turn someone picks up to 62s pace while the other guys slow the pace to 80s. Huge pile up and tons of traffic. Then make Mo have to chase that leader down (making sure to make him run wide as much as possible). When he does, repeat the action on the next turn with a different runner. Either he lets a break form, hopes someone else chases them down, or wastes a ton of energy. If the kenyans and ethopians worked together you could have a 2 man break and 4 man wall for Mo to deal with.
Obviously you can tweak this tactic for the last lap but boxing Mo in. He is fast but if you give a couple tenths of a second to anyone that is hard to make up in the last 300ms.
Brianruns10 wrote:I think the only way at this point would be for someone to run a gutsy race, take it from the start, and try to gap him enough that his kick can't cover the distance. And even still, this would be a huge gamble, and likely to fail 9 out of 10. The fellow would have to have ideal conditions and run the race of his life.
So many things wrong with your idea. First the Kenyans and Ethiopians do not work together. Second trying to put the breaks on to an 80 with 2 guys isn't going to work. The whole pack will just fly around those 2 and then those 2 will suddenly be out of the race. Third Mo will get himself out of the inside lanes and into position before the last.
i 100% agree
Mani wrote:
Why would Salazar be showcasing Mo's closing speed so much if Mo's not in shape to run a fast time (or if he's using banned substances)? That would be suicide. I think he's encouraging the East Africans to make a fast pace for Mo so that there's a small pack going into the bell. A small pack means less chance that Mo gets boxed in or tripped, and a higher likelihood that the strongest athlete will win. I think Salazar knows that Mo is the strongest athlete in both events and can kick off a fast pace better than anyone else.
LM wrote:
The Waterboy wrote:Have the Ethiopians or Kenyans run a 70 second first lap from the leaders, so cocky Mo Farah will go right to the back in 75-76 like he always does.
Then have 3 or 4 of them make an immediate break and run the remaining 24 or 11.5 laps at 26:40 pace or 12:50 pace, trading the lead to help pace each other.
Winning time will be 26:46 or 12:59, but Farah will have lost too many seconds after the first lap to catch up if they take off right away, or if he does catch up he will be burnt out by the time the last lap rolls around because he will have to run at PR pace for 90% of the race plus a surge to make up the 5 second gap from him to the front.
I really do believe this would work.
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Yah, he's got the speed to win in the end. That's it. Nobody at the Olympics took the pace out and he closed in 53. He ran 3:28 in a fast race and has broken 27 minutes once. Nothing to see here.
Trackjacket wrote:
Joe Dirt wrote:Teammate #1 goes hard from 600m out. Farah covers. Teammate #2 goes hard from 300m out. Farah covers. Strongest teammate hangs back a bit and kicks him down in the final 100m. Might work.
Who do you see being able to do this?
The team who apparently has three 10,000m runners better than Bekele.