Rupp vs. Chelanga Strategy

Withrow's been sandbagging this whole season. Just wait.

McMillan isn't worth anything. Seriously, it's not. If anything, I'd say use the IAAF scoring tables to find "equivalent performances."

McMillan is typically a little speed-biased. But OK, we'll play the game. Fernandez ran 8:34 2 Miles by himself. Don't you think he could've run faster without leading at all? Maybe where the winner went 8:20? I bet Rupp didn't lead a step of that 13:37 (I have no idea though).

So, you have to ask yourself- How much faster could you run for 2 miles if you were being towed along, compared to if you paced the whole thing alone?

a miler wrote:

To all the people who are starting to pick Oklahoma State for the win, can you provide some kind of feasable breakdown for this to happen? For example who from Oak St. can beat who from Oregon? Because right now I'm not convinced that Oregon couldn't go 1-2 on German, possibly even 1-2-3 if Shadrack can race to potential.

I don't think it will make much different whether Shadrack beats German or not. It will be decided by their #4 & 5 runners.

01. 28:48 Galen Rupp, Oregon, 1st PAC 10, 27:41 1st West (2, 29:23)

02. 29:18 German Fernandez, OK State, 1st Big 12 , 31:20 5th Midwest

03. 29:18 Shadrack Kiptoo-Biwott, Oregon, 5th PAC 10, 28:32 2nd West

09. 29:45 John Kosgei, OK State, 3rd Big 12, 31:19 3rd Midwest

10. 29:45 Ryan Vail, OK State, 4th Big 12, 31:20 6th Midwest (11, 29:57)

14. 29:58 Luke Puskedra, Oregon, 2nd PAC 10, 28:45 6th West

19. 30:06 David Chirchir, OK State, 13th Big 12, 31:20 7th Midwest (21, 30:19)

23. 30:13 Matt Centrowitz, Oregon, 11th PAC 10

34. 30:24 Colby Lowe, OK State, 5th Big 12

40. 30:32 Kenny Klotz, Oregon, 29:28 14th West (37, 30:35)

41. 30:35 Diego Mercado, Oregon, 29:29 15th West (30, 30:26)

48. 30:41 Andrew Wheating, Oregon, 9th PAC 10 (or Curtis Suver 29:38 19th West)

68. 30:48 Daniel Watts, OK State (53, 30:43)

69. 30:48 Matt Barnes-Smith, OK State 31:50 21st Midwest (60, 30:44)

01 OK State 2+9+10+19+34 = 73

02 Oregon 1+3+14+23+40 = 81

I moved up Centrowitz, though it could just as well be Klotz or Mercado or Wheating, to perform much better than previous races, while I think 34th for Lowe is fairly conservative. But let's say Shadrack beats German (Chelanga doesn't matter as he's not a team scorer). I'm not changing Kosgei, Vail or Chirchir because if anything, Chirchir could place higher. Let's move Centrowitz to 20th, and Klotz or Mercado (both of whom have not been looking that great) up to 37th.

OK State 3+9+10+19+34 = 74

Oregon 1+2+14+20+37 = 74

It's going to be a good, close race.

poooop wrote:

McMillan isn't worth anything. Seriously, it's not. If anything, I'd say use the IAAF scoring tables to find "equivalent performances."

McMillan is typically a little speed-biased. But OK, we'll play the game. Fernandez ran 8:34 2 Miles by himself. Don't you think he could've run faster without leading at all? Maybe where the winner went 8:20? I bet Rupp didn't lead a step of that 13:37 (I have no idea though).

So, you have to ask yourself- How much faster could you run for 2 miles if you were being towed along, compared to if you paced the whole thing alone?

I think German runs his best when he's running in the front to win. Some people do. Look at his state meet record in cross last year. Whiping away Mark Davis' long standing record, and then losing footlocker??!!

His double on the track of 4:00 & 8:34 is another display of how well he runs when he's in the lead. It's phenomenal, but it wasn't a 5K at 13:37. I'm not saying he couldn't have done it, but Rupp did do it, and rupp is now 5 years stronger. Shit Rupp could likely run better than 13:37 back to back right now.

Put Rupp and German on the track for 10K right now and German is coming on the back stretch as Rupp is hitting the finish line. This isn't a slam on German, because he could probably run in the mid to low 28's which is phenomenal as a freshman (like Rupp's 28:15 that he ran alone).

German has been running pretty hard this season and in the company of guys who will struggle for top 10 finishes. If Rupp were in those races he'd look just as "comfortable" or "held back" as German, but be around the next corner.

You guys are dreaming on this.