German Fernandez is a Serious Threat to Win NCAA Cross Country Nationals

yes, there's a difference between running essentially time trials against inferior high school competition and running against seasoned elite ncaa runners. you're not going to dominate the latter as a freshman, although bk did it and ritz was fourth. but german is special precisely because he was able to run 8:34 2M in a high school only race with no competition. chasing top guys in the race, he was likely to run significantly faster for the same reason that before him all the major distance records had been run in races with older runners. nelson ran 8:36 against pros. and ritz and a lightly trained bk obviously never came close to nelson's record, although ritz did run at lindgren's pace for 5k. german hasn't been pushed yet this year and we've seen before how fast early and mid season form doesn't necessarily translate to national championships. chelanga would have to falter to lose but german can be banked on for top five. we don't know that rupp will be in top form following the long outdoor season. I see chelanga, rupp in that order and not sure who else will be there in the top five other than german. derrick has a great shot at top ten. puskedra top twenty.

jonesy. wrote:

chelanga would have to falter to lose but german can be banked on for top five. we don't know that rupp will be in top form following the long outdoor season. I see chelanga, rupp in that order and not sure who else will be there in the top five other than german. derrick has a great shot at top ten. puskedra top twenty.

my point in the original art

Ooops... messed up there. My point in the original article is that German is certainly good enough, as you say, to be expected to finish around the top-5. Head-to-head, every runner peaked, he probably doesn't beat Chelanga or Rupp. But if Chelanga has already peaked and fades by Nationals, and Rupp is still not be back in form- he'll probably only run a race or two before Nationals-... Fernandez should be among the contenders to pick up the pieces. If it's a slowish race with a decent-sized pack a mile from the finish, Fernandez may have the best drive in from that distance.

Just an addition to your freshman top finishes sentence: Goucher was 2nd as a true frosh.

watching the sport wrote:

If you guys would watch some interviews, you'd realize that German hasn't run all out yet. It looks like he even held back some in his 23:34, so he probably could have run at least 23:20 in an all out effort.

I love how no one runs "all out" until NCAAs. It's either a "workout" or "qualifying" or "running as a team." I think it's just arrogance (after a great run) or excuses (after a poor performance). Races are to race. Period. German is a 23:34 guy on this course - 40 sec. slower than Chelanga meaning German isn't even in his league. I guarantee you he wasn't stopping to pick daises out there - he was racing, hard.

Next we'll hear none of his high school exploits were all out either...

so i was a fernandez hater.

i thought he was getting way too much hype,

and everyone just loves to over hype people.

well i watched him race in the b race last weekend at prenats.

i must say, i was impressed. he ran awesome. but the look on his face during hte race was that of racing.

although he has cured my hater attitude, i still think he ran that race like a race.

and i would bet money on it if it wasnt illegal

unless chelanga chokes, and rupp chokes, and maybe a few more (i personally think mcneil could be up there) then i dont think german will be top 5. he will be right up there fighting for it, but he'll get droppd at 8k and end up 15 seconds back

for those saying german got beat or wasn't the fastest, take a look on how easy he has run the last two races....

http://www.flotrack.org/videos/coverage/view_video/234177/75920-mens-open-race

http://www.flotrack.org/videos/coverage/view_video/234137/74555-cowboy-jamboree-mens-8k

If German somehow beats Rupp and Chelanga at Nationals and wins the race, we are not just looking at a great college runner. We are looking at a guy who will likely run sub-13 and sub-27 in the next few years. German is so fascinating because, at this point in his development, nothing is out of the question. Maybe he only has a 1-2% chance to win Nationals, but that's all it takes to make this one hell of a fun thread!

Bear in mind that a lot of good runners did not particpate in that race, for German to fininsh top 5 as someone suggested, you have to factor in at least 3 potential top 10 guys who did not run at pre nats. And, I think no matter what GF looked like, he was running hard...he always looks relaxed and he always runs hard.

How can anyone have trouble thinking of other possible contenders? NCAAs is gonna be sick. I'd say at least eight runners will be in contention for the championship, if Rupp and Chelanga aren't on their game. There's at least 30 who are worthy of being considered top ten contenders.

My list below is just a rough estimate of where these runners are at now. I hesitate to include Witthrow because he may still be hurt, but don't know for sure. I think some will move up based on their performances at Conference and Regionals.

01 Galen Rupp, Oregon, top returning NCAA runner

02 Sam Chelanga, Liberty, 22:51 Pre-Nats

03 Daniel Kirwa, Harding, 23:57 Cowboy, 28:53 Chile

04 Tyson David, Alabama, 23:30 Pre-Nats

05 Samuel Kosgei, Lamar, 23:32 Notre Dame, 29:05 Chile

06 Shadrack Songok, Texas A&M, 29:16 Chile

07 German Fernandez, Oklahoma St., 23:34 Pre-Nats

08 David Kinsella, Portland, 24:02 Dellinger

09 David McNeill, Northern Arizona, 23:30 Pre-Nats

10 Hassan Mead, Minnesota, 23:33 Pre-Nats

11 Ryan Vail, Oklahoma St., 24:13 Cowboy

12 Shadrack Kiptoo-Biwot, Oregon

13 Felix Kibioywo, Auburn, 23:35 Pre-Nats

14 David Chirchir, OK State, 24:13 Cowboy

15 Julius Nyango, Abilene Christian, 29:23 Chile

16 Alfred Kipchumba, Portland, 24:05, Dellinger

17 Garrett Heath, Stanford, 23:36 Pre-Nats

18 Chris Derrick, Stanford, 23:37 Pre-Nats

19 Steven Sambu, Rend Lake, 29:25 Chile

20 Girma Mesecho, Auburn, 23:37 Pre-Nats

21 Patrick Smyth, Notre Dame, 23:38 Pre-Nats

22 Jeremy Criscione, Florida, 23:38 Pre-Nats

23 Augustus Maiyo, Alabama, 23:38 Pre-Nats

24 Scott MacPherson, Arkansas, 29:32 Chile

25 Matt Withrow, Wisconsin

26 Andrew Ledwith, Iona, 23:43 Paul Short

27 Landon Peacock, Wisconson, 23:46 Paul Short

28 Gilbert Limo, Texas Tech, 29:36 Chile

29 Luke Gunn, Florida State, 23:35 Notre Dame

30 Andrew Wheating, Oregon, 19:40 Hodges

GERMAN IS A DOUCHE...Rupp is gonna own him.

Whenever you're running hard you hardly look the part.

a lot of tough guys in there. withrow, if healthy and in shape, would be a top 5 guy as well. the point about goucher is that you have to be an all-timer to contend as a freshman. if german's the one, as they say, he'll show it soon. to run that double and then take down that 2M record with no speedwork faster than 60 makes me a believer.

jonesy. wrote:

a lot of tough guys in there. withrow, if healthy and in shape, would be a top 5 guy as well. the point about goucher is that you have to be an all-timer to contend as a freshman. if german's the one, as they say, he'll show it soon. to run that double and then take down that 2M record with no speedwork faster than 60 makes me a believer.

He can run, but he hasn't proven he can race. He was 3rd at Footlocker, like 17 seconds off 2nd place, meaning he fell apart when he couldn't just run even splits and pull away. He was 3rd at some local invite, just "practice racing", yeah right. The chances of him winning NCAA Cross this year are almost none.

I forgot to include these two, as they hadn't raced in a while:

Alfred Kipchumba, Portland, 24:05 Dellinger

Luke Puskedra, Oregon, 24:06 Dellinger

I'd put them around 23rd to 24th right now, though they did beat Tyson David in that race. They'll have to show how much they've improved at Conference to move up.

Big 12 Champ, knocked off contenders Songok and Vail today...

Rupp did run an impressive time yesterday though

GF cannot run with Rupp or Chelanga yet. However, I bet he will be US Junior 5K record holder if he doesn't get injured. He can probably get Rupp's 10K record if he wanted it too.

Best Frosh may be Girma Machismo of Auburn

German seemed to have a lot left in the end at Big 12. I have no idea what his limit is -- perhaps he will be in the mix for at least 2nd!

Dumber than an Illini wrote:

Best Frosh may be Girma Machismo of Auburn

Girma Mesecho is originally from Ethiopia. However, he went to Berkmar high school in Lilburn, Georgia. He was 9th in the 2006 Footlocker Championships as a junior, just ahead of Colby Lowe. Is he a citizen?