Why did Queens move up to 11th?
Why did Queens move up to 11th?
XCobserver wrote:
Harding is a definite contender...If Biwott is also eligible, they will be even stronger---I don't see them beating either Abilene or Adams.
I could see them taking it all on the perfect day. More likely they will be top 4.
XCobserver wrote:
Chico will drop in the poll since they did not race all their horses and did not look great anyway. Western should drop significantly--who has raced for them? They are being ranked high based on reputation and expectations more than results. They will stay in the top five because of this, but I expect them to drop as the season goes on.
Actually, I think Chico raced pretty well. I've run Aztec and it's pretty tough course. They put 7 within a minute without their top guy, and 5 in :45. That's not bad on a tough course.
I agree WSC should drop in the rankings.
XCobserver wrote:
There seems to be no consensus among the DII regional rankers on how to approach the rankings.
Do you rank 'em how they run or do you rank them based on who you know (or THINK) will run at some point or has raced and sat out?---If football or basketball was ranked based on "well, if so and so had played, the game would have been different..."---Do you think that would go over very well? I know...different sport, different parameters and circumstances. Just asking the question.
I agree that there seems to be no norm in which the rankings are done. It is really just one guys opinion of how he sees the region. At least in our region that is how it is.
Nationally I have no idea how they compile the votes, but they seem to reflect last years results more than anything.
RogueRunner wrote:
Why did Queens move up to 11th?
queens moved up because their was a mistake in the week 1 rankings and thats where they were supposed to be
Queens is interesting...
They ran second to a Florida State "B" team in the season opener but have found some guys who can run.
I am sure this will open the whole "Scott Simmons is a genius" controversy again--- does he just coach who shows up and make them great? Or is he a great recruiter...? He has certainly brought in two studs...he has also added a couple guys who were probably overlooked by anumber of schools and show some promise.
They lost Kanya (#5 at nationals in '07), but found Ogwaro a Cal-JUCO cross country champ and a sub 30 10k guy in '07-He had been road racing in California...Why did he not get signed by someone after his time at East LA?
They added Mike Crouch--who was an up and comer at Cal-State San Marcos before getting injured at the beginning of his sophomore cross country season in '07.
Rowell (#3)was a 9:30 2-miler in high school and ran at Paradise Valley--a top Arizona JC program---but raced only medicore in cross and 15:30 for 5k in the spring. Mebrathu was another mid-pack guy at Phoenix College (15:30 range)
The number 2 guy from '07 appears to be the #4-#5 this year...Connelly ran in the top 40 at nationals a year ago.
...They drop off a lot to #6---a guy who barely made the top 100 at nationals last year.
Are they better than last year's 15th-place team..Definitely...are they a top 10...maybe...are they an injury away from being so-so, yes (like many squads).
Long story short---they are ranked correctly.
So. Ct. State Univiersity , Umass Lowell,
for 100,000.00, who can name the top five runners from Adams State's national championship team that perfect scored at Slippery Rock back in 1992? No Adams fans allowed to play..........
okay not even a dollar, but a good trivia question nonetheless, because it happened so long ago...
So. Conn. St. seemed to let down last year at the end and did not make the national field---3rd in the region.
Their first race at Fairfield was another case of not showing all their cards. The number one guy ran a low 26...but he was the sixth man at the 07 regional meet...Not one of the top 5 from that meet raced the first time out this season. If they have five guys better than Fennekohl they can make an appearance at nationals this year from the east region---but only 2 teams get out of the east...
Mass-Lowell and Stonehill are both ranked higher than SoConn..Mass-Lowell did not run anyone--other than Sanca--from their '07 team in their first race...It must have been some sort of Tempo workout for the Owls. Sanca has been claiming 100+ mile weeks and killer workouts and he ran 16:49 for the 5k race. Sanca seems pretty intense about doing well this year.The UMass squad fell apart at nationals last year and blamed the heat. I guess it is good that PA should be cold enough for them.
Stonehill has a lot to prove after last season. They bombed at nationals and the vaunted Gill brothers ran poorly---I know Keith Gill was injured and probably should not have run---they do not look significantly improved talent wise from 2007...They did pick up a state cross country champ in Polito who ran with the younger Gill at the first meet (27:26 for 8k).
I would rank the region: UMass, SoConn, Stonehill
Phil Castillo, Peter DeLacerda, David Brooks, Paul Stoneham, Jason Mohr...
Sprately and Titticombe of Western State went 6 and 7...RMAC swept the top 7 spots in their first NCAA meet.
A near fight ensued with the Adams and Western guys chanting "NAIA...NAIA...NAIA" as a sort of in-your face to the schools who had said that Adams and Western would not dominate the NCAA as they had the NAIA.
Shane Healy who would be national champ in '93 ran 11th for Adams.
Not an Adams fan by any means, but I do happen to have a copy of the NCAA news from Nov. 23rd 1992 lying around!
Southern Stampede is this weekend, always lots of DII schools. This year we should see MOSO, SBU, Drury, Pitt State, Missouri S&T (Rolla), and a few other decent teams...might shake up some of the regional rankings.
Missouri Southern is way over-ranked based on results as oppossed to wishful thinking.
They have Dixon (All-American in '07) but he is yet to race. The stud from Finland---Finnish Junior national champ---ran 21:34 for 4 miles. Granted he ran 3:50 for the 1500 last spring, but this is cross country...The number 2 guy from 07 left the team...Their top runner so far this season has been Benkert who ran 100+ at nationals last year...
They have another guy from Finland that is supposed to be good, but he too has not raced at his point and I don't believe he broke 15:25 for 5k on the track last spring--
Not enough talent or results to warrant a ranking of 14 right now.
Alright, here is a couple of thoughts before I throw out some predictions. This all comes with a disclaimer that I just had foot surgery and am on excessive amounts of vicodin:
Western - It definitely looks like a down year. And there are a lot of Western Haters on this board to point it out. This year they are only bringing back three proven vets and their health is questionable, Pennel, Donnan, and Clark. The haters are ready to write them off, but I would encourage everyone to take a look back at the 06 season. Western looked a lot worse coming in than they do now. They had just lost top 10 finishers Christensen and Bodor to graduation and Donnan and Rich to transfers. They returned 2 All-Americans in Hogarth and Murch. Everyone was ready to write them off then too. Heck I thought we (Mines) were going to finally beat them. But in the end what happened... the emergence of Aaron Clark and Scott Dahlberg as All-Americans and a third place team finish in pensacola with a lot of depth from some unheralded veterans like Andrew Hoffman. Look to guys like Sean Brown and freshman Tim Hamilton to break through and keep Western in the hunt, the way Clark, Dahlberg and Pennel have in the past. I'd love to see Mines beat them this year, and I think it could happen, but Western has an incredible record of coming through in the clutch.
Metro - They looked pretty damn good at CU. And as much as it pains me to admit it, they looked better than our guys. They looked a lot better than I expected with the loss of Gabe Luna. Julian has shown glimpses of brilliance with the way Tolentino performed in North Carolina and the way Anthony performed in the 800. But it seems people need to be reminded that they have underperformed at regionals and failed to qualify the last two years. It is a little ridiculous for people to put Metro in the top 5 when they have never qualified for nationals. They looked good in August, but I'll believe the Metro hype when they look good in November. Just because some of you think Pete Julian is the second coming of Bill Bowerman, can't change the fact that they haven't ever qualified for nationals. Being an RMAC fan here's to hoping they change that this year.
Queens - Some people seem to fall into the same trap with Simmons that they do with Julian. Just because a guy has had success with limited restrictions at the NAIA level (Simmons) or because they were a great runner themselves (Julian) doesn't mean that they are going to automatically bring the teams they coach into the title hunt. This isn't to take away from Simmons' accomplishments at VIC or Julian's accomplishments as a runner. But the bottom line with these two teams is... I'll believe it when I see it and so far between these two teams I have seen one 15th place finish.
Highlands - Some idiot said that they had to prove why they deserved to be ranked ahead of Metro and the Springs... How bout a 10th place finish at Nationals.
Rankings - I think there are two schools of thought on rankings in all sports. One is a pure ranking of how good teams are right now and the other is where do you think they will finish at the end of the year. It seems that the different regional and national coordinators are split in how they do this. For example, if I was to rank the RMAC on this year's results I would probably go something along the lines of Adams, Metro, Mines, Western, Highlands. But do I actually think they will end up in that order? Hell no! At nationals it might be more like Adams, Western, Mines, Highlands and Metro. And since how you are running in september doesn't mean shit, Ill go ahead and throw out my picks for how teams will finish the season.
1) Adams
2) Abilene
3) Chico
4) Western
5) Harding
6) Mines
7) Mankato
8) Grand Valley
9) Highlands
10) Metro
-Aaron Heun (Hate on my picks all you want, but at least I attached my name to mine right?)
Good post...Aaron
Western does come through when it seems like "no way"...one note however---a lot of that was with Vandenbusche at the helm, I am not sure that Jen Michaels (despite being National coach of the Year in '07) brings that same attitude to the team.
I am coming around more and more in my mind to Adams winning the whole damn thing again---IF Medigovich and Wagnew are competing (even though I beleive Wagnew to be pretty weak mentally)...this is a big if
Abilene is of course very solid and SHOULD win--will weather effect there performance? People make too much of weather and the African athletes...Ngirikaramo (Highlands) destroyed the Adams and Western guys last year on a miserable day in South Dakota.
Harding needs one more guy to be a first place threat---they may have him if Biwott gets eligible to race.
Chico has the guys to run top 4, I do not believe they can win even if Bauhs should come out as the national champion.
I see a race among the top four that is something like last year and the top 3--- maybe 20 points seperating the top 4...
If I have to predict right now with all the IF's and BUT's...
1. Abilene
2. Adams
3. Harding
4. Chico
I will have to think more about 5 -10...unfortunately I have a class---really, I do...
You call yourself a real letsrun.com junkie? Class? Skip it!
...Okay, here are 5-10
5. Mankato
6. Western--- if, if, if...Big IF's
7. Alaska-Anchorage
8. Mines
9. Queens
10. NM Highlands
I'm only making these predictions because BoulderRunner was willing to try and predict the top ten 2 months out--We all KNOW it is way too early...just an academic exercise at this point.
XCobserver wrote:
...Okay, here are 5-10
5. Mankato
6. Western--- if, if, if...Big IF's
7. Alaska-Anchorage
8. Mines
9. Queens
10. NM Highlands
I'm only making these predictions because BoulderRunner was willing to try and predict the top ten 2 months out--We all KNOW it is way too early...just an academic exercise at this point.
Mines won't fall to 8th. They ran poorly and placed 7th last year (Both their non scoring runners should have been in their top 3 last year). They only graduated one of their scorers. I see them no worse than 7th probably/99% sure higher.
XCobserver wrote:
Phil Castillo, Peter DeLacerda, David Brooks, Paul Stoneham, Jason Mohr...
Sprately and Titticombe of Western State went 6 and 7...RMAC swept the top 7 spots in their first NCAA meet.
A near fight ensued with the Adams and Western guys chanting "NAIA...NAIA...NAIA" as a sort of in-your face to the schools who had said that Adams and Western would not dominate the NCAA as they had the NAIA.
Shane Healy who would be national champ in '93 ran 11th for Adams.
Not an Adams fan by any means, but I do happen to have a copy of the NCAA news from Nov. 23rd 1992 lying around!
Adams had been the prominent NAIA cross country school. Although Western had some good teams, including a shared NAIA title in 1986, their dominance didn't begin until the late 90s as a D2 school. You are correct in that most of the D2 schools didn't think much of the NAIA. In fact, even some coaches were talking crap about how Adams (and the rest of the newly converted NAIA teams) was going to find out how much tougher the competition was in D2.
different era....irrevlavent for 08
Not sure how you can say Lowell fell apart at NCAAs last year since they finished at their ranking