Fernandez 4:00.29!!!!!!

wrongo wrote:

1) you're right, because they don't need to prove anything. especially compared to a kid with no national championships and no (legit) national records.

German Fernandez might end up being one of the best ever, but he isn't yet. why not? because you need AT LEAST a national record or a national title to be considered one of the best. his 3200 isn't as good as the 2mi record, so you can just quit it with that, and he has no national titles. he isn't there yet.

Actually, German has both a national title and a national record.

1600m

1 - 60.4

2 - 60.2 (2:00.6)

3 - 59.3 (2:59.9)

4 - 60.3 (4:00.25) CA STATE RECORD!

3200m

1 - 64.5

2 - 64.7 (2:09.2)

3 - 64.8 (3:14.0)

4 - 64.7 (4:18.7)

5 - 64.3 (5:23.0)

6 - 64.6 (6:27.6)

7 - 65.1 (7:32.7)

8 - 61.5 (8:34.23) NATIONAL HS RECORD!!!

So... still think this guy is just... "okay"???

USATF Juniors is a national title.

25th at Junior Worlds isn't too shabby either.

As far as calling him a soon-to-be WR holder, clearly that's premature. However, his time does compare favorably with other top juniors. He's about as good as El Guerrouj was at the same age. El G was running about 13:45 as a Junior. Fernandez's time converts to 13:55, but you have to figure that running solo while doubling back is worth at least 10 seconds.

(I realize that he's behind the top East African Juniors, but I'm a bit suspicious about their real ages.)

While I agree that Webb probably could have replicated this double, German's status as one of the best high school runners of all time was cemented by his performances last night even without a national record or title (although he did win the junior nats xc title over a very good field). Seriously just stop being negative and accept it.

my two cents:

i think this discussion is quite entertaining. to predict what he could do is normal and fun: i like reading everyone's take on it. in the early stages of this thread, after german ran his 4-flat, people were discussing if he was as good as the big-3--ritz, webb, and ryun. some said yes, others argued that he hadn't proved himself cus it wasn't a national record. 2 hours later, the guy runs a double for the record books with a 3200 nearly equally the 2-mile best by nelson.

the debate continues with valid points:

nelson ran with pros, webb's 3:53 is intrinsically better on all pace charts but also ran with pros, ryun ran with pros gunning for snell, rupp's 5k time (was his name mention until now?) was also run with the open dudes, lindgren ran an 8:40 indoors with pros, nelson runs 8:42 with pros,...

german has the best double ever (can't dispute that)...

he basically time-trialed his races yesterday, so...here's what i think:

if fresh, his 3200m time would've been 10 seconds faster than it was... if run with pros, take another 5-10 seconds off...how 'bout an 8:20 effort? why not?

a 1600 effort, with the open guys, he can run 3:56 (a sub-4 mile equivalent)...i have no doubt he can do that...

5k with open guys: 13:30...no doubt in my mind based on his double yesterday that was done virtually solo after the first 200 meters in both races...

i think he could be top-three in NCAA in the 5k...this year!

he needs to run a 5k so he can qualify for the oly trials...this kid's ready to make the olympic team. maybe i'm stretching a little on this one but, hell, before he ran his 8:34, i never once imagined him flirting with nelson's record off of a state record 1600 time (beating hall's 4:02). does this guy get tired? again, frickin' by himself...

okay, one more comment: i'm jeff nelson's age, and when the guy ran 8:36, i was in nearly the same state of shock that i'm in now...then, later that year...1979..., an 18-year-old from great britan named steve binns runs a 13:27 in a 5k...that's when i stopped worshipping jeff nelson.

by the way, the ethiopian who took second in the 5k yesterday (nyc) ran 13:01 as an 18-year-old last year...german isn't there yet but his future looks bright.

What about Junior Nationals in cross country? He beat some All-Americans in that race.

wrongo wrote:

no matter which way you slice it, an 8:36 2mi is a lesser performance than a 3:53 mile.

Wow. I certainly hope that you don't have any future plans to engage in formal debates, because you would get slaughtered.

That being said, I notice that you conveniently omitted your own original reference. I never said (or even implied) that Nelson's 8:36 was superior to Webb's 3:53. That's strictly a figment of your own biased imagination. I was responding to your naive statement that "8:36 2mi is the weakest record of a commonly-run distance." Once again, I would be curious to hear what type of warped perspective would lead you to that conclusion. Look at all the boy's HS track & field records. Nelson's 2-mile is one of the very oldest marks on the list. Logically, that would indicate that it is one of THE strongest records on the books! How many tens-of-thousands of young men have run the 2-mile/3200 throughout the last 29 years (including several future Olympians), and yet the record still stands.

"this kids ready to make the Olympic team"

i took this as meaning this year and just laughed by ass off. thanks for that.

Greg Andersen (Canadian) ran 8.00.2 for 3000m in a HS only race (although he was a year older) back in 1987 - must be comparable to this time, running the last 800m in 2.01. While he didn't run a another race that day, he did run two 1500's the previous day (1500 heat and 1500 final - 3.47, going out in 57).

The point is - lots of people thought he was going to be a star. He wasn't, in fact he never improved.

I'm not saying that this kid will fail to improve, his future looks very bright, but not everyone (just Like Jeff Nelson didn't) fulfills their early promise. It's even more difficult in the distances to reach the world level with all the Africans - at a simlar age as German running relatively that much faster. Webb has speed on his side (47xx 400m in HS), even if he hasn't always been tactically proficient, so he has developed on the middle-distance level. Ritz still isn't amongst the best in the world in the distances. Hall might turn out to be amongst the best, and looks promising right now, perhaps BECAUSE he wasn't running this fast (for 3200m) at that age!!!

formal debate? this is the internet, son. i didn't put all the times up there because the purdy point tables are inaccurate when comparing distance races to sprint races, and i didn't feel like doing the legwork to find the iaaf scores of all the high school records. feel free to look up the 100, 200, 400 and 800 and tell me if any of them is weaker than the 2mi.

also, notice that the guys i listed as "the best" either had the mile record or a dominant championship record. certainly, there's other guys that deserve to be up there, and Fernandez might be by the time NON/Pre have been run, but as of now:

-he has no LEGIT national records (the 3200 is a footnote)

-he has no LEGIT national titles (USATF junior nats was off-season for everyone, and the field was weak)

anyone who is seriously considering this kids one of the all time greats (top 5? top 10?) because of the quality of a DOUBLE he ran - not a serious national record, not a national title - needs to take a slow the hell down. a double like this is just an indication that he's capable of records/championships, but it's not a (legit) record or a (national) championship... kind of like a really impressive workout.

i, for one, think he'll drop a sub-8:30 in the Pre 2mi, and then i'll consider him one of the best of all time.

Would you quit saying LEGIT, you f***ing douche bag.

......with you? Wrongo, you are a total dilweed.

wrongo wrote:

feel free to look up the 100, 200, 400 and 800 and tell me if any of them is weaker than the 2mi.

Feel free to look up those same records and tell me which one has lasted the longest. Since you seem to have a bit of difficulty acknowledging facts that refute your point of view, I won't hold my breath waiting for your reply.

wrongo wrote:

-he has no LEGIT national records (the 3200 is a footnote)

-he has no LEGIT national titles (USATF junior nats was off-season for everyone, and the field was weak)

but it's not a (legit) record or a (national) championship... kind of like a really impressive workout.

sorry, wrong on both counts.

okay, i think everyone is getting the wrong idea. i think this is an amazing double- easily the best of all time. unlike other people on this thread, i don't consider doubles to be a qualifier for the "best ever" category; there are two things that qualify you: 1) National Titles, and 2) National Records. i think this kid is capable of both. currently, though, he doesn't have more than one of either, and his "national record" is an asterisk, and his national title isn't over a great field, or in a standard racing season. the last time he raced the nation's best high schoolers (FLXC) he got third.

we don't give out national titles or records for "best double" just like we don't give them out for best workout or best v02max lab test.

i would, but every time i just say "he has no national records," someone says "yes he does!" well, yes, he has the 3200m record, which is a stupid distance, and the record is weaker than the 2mi record, which is nearly the same race.

the facts don't refute my point of view. it is your opinion that longevity of a record determines its strength. i disagree. in my opinion, it is how that time at that distance compares to the all-time lists of all races at all levels. the iaaf tables and, when comparing similar distances, the purdy point tables do that pretty well. a record may stand for a long time for many reasons. Nelson got to run in a professional meet with guys running in the 8:30s. how many times have preps gotten that opportunity since then? fortunately, Fernandez will get that opportunity at Pre. i fully expect him to bring that record into the 8:20s and, in so doing, join the ranks of the best high schoolers ever.

the usatf field being weak is up for argument, but you can't seriously be saying that the 3200m record of 8:34 is relevant when the 2mi record is 8:36. it's close, but not quite as good. add to that the (arguable, see above) fact that the 2mi is already weaker than the other HS track records, and you've got yourself a footnote of a record.

Wrongo you've got to be kidding me. For you to consider him ONE of the best of all time he'd have to break the 2 mile national record by over 6 seconds??? I agree that the 2-mile record, regardless of how long it's lasted, is one of the weakest records, but come on. We're not talking about like an 8:42 after a 4:00, we're talking about a goddamn 8:34. Only 1 person in history has ever run faster , and that person was in a professional field and was racing fresh. 8:34! Forget about the double, that time alone cements his status as one of the best of all time.

And junior nats was a great field, not that it matters.

8:34!

well, i mean "one of the best" is kind of vague. i was thinking more like "top 3-5," so, necessarily, i would have pretty steep requirements. ritz had no national records, but his competitive record over the best HS competition since the 70s qualifies him. webb and ryun are both there because of a combination of the strength of their mile records, their qualify times at other distances, and their competitive record.

i don't think it's ridiculous to want to see Fernandez run a time comparable to Webb's/Ryun's to say he's in their league. as for competitive record, *someone* has to win nationals every season, and Fernandez has done that exactly once. the only thing that stands out as a potential "qualifier" for the top 3-5 of all time is this double, and i don't see doubles as being the same as records or titles.

if he had a better championship record, the 8:34 might do it for me, but in the absence of that, yes i would say that it would take an 8:30 2mi or better to be in the same league as Ritz, Ryun, and Webb.

I've got to agree. Arguably the greatest US distance runner ever and former holder of the outdoor 3200 prep record in Craig Virgin could never pull off that kind of double. And I highly doubt Nelson could have. Fernandez could go sub 4:00 in the full mile and probably sub 8:30 in the full two-mile with competition if he ran them individually rather than doubling. Don't know anyone else in the history of prep running that could do that, with the possible exception of Webb if he had focused on the 3200. Fernandez could put this entire debate to rest in the coming weeks if he wants to.

wrongo wrote:

okay, i think everyone is getting the wrong idea. i think this is an amazing double- easily the best of all time. unlike other people on this thread, i don't consider doubles to be a qualifier for the "best ever" category; there are two things that qualify you: 1) National Titles, and 2) National Records.

This will be my last response, since I suspect you're trolling.

If titles and records were the only thing that mattered, then there wouldn't be a "best ever" category. We would just look at who won and who got the records. The whole point of ranking the best high school runners is that it's a purely academic exercise that allows track fans to consider things like doubles, weather, strength of field, splits, coming back from injury, number of years training, etc.

It strange that you "fully expect" him to be among the best ever...in just one week. He's not getting any better in 7 days, so you're obviously basing that prediction upon this performance. It seems that you're mostly concerned about not bestowing these accolades until they are conclusively earned, but that's missing the point. Calling someone one of the best ever is not a formal honor that must be carefully ratified; it is an assessment based on facts, and it can be made instantly.