........PSAC.......

Wild race, with so many people going down in the mud and the super slippy slopp. The course was probably a minute slower than it normally is.

Some follow up thoughts from PSAC's:

On the one hand, Haven was as dominant as I predicted they would be. They had this race won by the mile mark...a sign of a team that is simply on a different level than everybody else. I know some on this board doubted haven, but that was clearly not warranted. Blood was in control five minutes into the race and by then, the Haven guys were all packed up around 10th place. It was game over.

On the one hand, I feel like saying..."when will I ever learn...don't bet against boro." But, this is clearly a team that is more vulnerable than any I have witnessed. They did manage second, but they all went out hard and came back to folks throughout the race. I think the outcome would've been different if it were a 10K race today. But, this is not a team that warrants being ranked something like fifth, as some on this board had predicted. They still are Boro and you've got to hand it to Watts....he's something special.

When I put out my preseason ranking, I took a lot of smack for "being disrespectful" to ESU. I apparently deserved some smack, but perhaps instead for ignoring Clarion. Clark ran well, but that was expected. What surprised me was their #2 and #3 guys, who really put it together today. I give this team a TON of credit for accomplishing so much and keeping it together, despite the early season adjustments they were forced to make given the last minute coaching change that took place. I am an idiot for not having these guys even ranked in my pre-season top-10...that's just crazy.

Should I have gotten smack for not ranking ESU near the top? That's debatable, if today's race is any indication. They were never in the race today...with Pinto being the exception. It should be noted that I don't recall seeing Drew Nesbitt in the race, so that would have done a lot to inflate their score. But, I'm guessing that would've knocked 30 or 35 points off (given that Nesbitt has been near Pinto in most races this year)...which would've put them close to Ship but still not near Clarion. So, I'm not sure what happended here. I can't imagine these guys running so poorly again next week and am guessing Nesbitt will return, but I also am not sure that they are a top-2 team either. I could see this team finishing anywhere from 3rd to 5th next week.

The Ship race was very similar to ESU, in that they were never in the race...with Hansloven being the exception. As I stated earlier, Hansloven looked like weiss -- like he was out for a sunday jog, but the rest of the ship guys ran like they were young and inexperienced (which to some extent they are). Ship worked to get out well, but then just let everybody pass them right back and basically knock them out of contention by 2 miles. And, nobody ever made a move to get back into the race. Spence knows this...in fact, was yelling to his team to try and get them to move, but to no avail. I can't imagine this team won't correct the situation by next week and at least run a strong first 3-4 miles to give themselves a chance. This team looked strong near the end...but just not sharp and never in the race...which suprises me, because I remember Ship teams that would run like this in the early miles but then really pour it on over the last 2 miles...this team didn't respond when it was time to do so.

Again, not sure why, but neither ESU nor SHIP ever gave themselves a chance...their 2--5 guys were never in the race. It might have been the conditions...I can imagine it was very easy as a runner to get wrapped up in the mud and slop and trying to stay on one's feet, and not being able to focus on the bigger picture -- the race at hand and where one stood relative to everybody else. I would expect things to be different for both of these teams at regionals. It will be interesting to see if Clarion is really the third best team in the region, or if they just looked slightly better than they are because Ship and ESU ran so poorly.

Bloom was probably the team that benefitted most from the Ship and ESU guys never being in the race. Shepherd ran a very solid race, moving up throughout and finishing a very solid fifth place. But, their next runner didn't cross the line until Stockey finished 24th. Bloom had a good pack, but If ESU and SHIP had ever gotten themselves into the race, they would've had a number of guys from each team in before Bloom's #3, which would have inflated the Bloom score and changed the scoring quite dramatically.

IUP's top 3 ran well, but were the hell were 4 and 5? Jorge, was -- well - Jorge. He went out with blood and ran tough...but in control. I expect him to run his race next week, go out and bang heads and finish third. Kruttschnitt was all conference, looking better than he has all season. I think he'll be in the mix next week. And, So. Nate Shelley ran a very solid race, really moving up over the last 2 miles to earn All Conference. I expect a longer race next week to really help him. But that was it. Gaudet, who spent the early part of the season injured, was never in the race. Shinsky, who came into the season out of shape still appears to be just that. Same story for Phares. I think each of the top 3 for IUP can improve next week, but don't see this team improving as a team.

Weiss ran a very smart race for the Rock, but Grey looked like the freshman that he is. He seemed to be all over the place, not comfortable in either the mud or a big important race, and probably fretted away a lot of energy in the early miles. I expect him to settle into the race next week, not use excess energy in the early miles next week, and have the good race he is capable of having.

A few comments on the women:

Lanzell ran a tough, tough race...which is what we all expect from her. She surged several times before finally opening up a gap on Blaesser and getting the win. Blaesser also looked very strong as this was a 2 person race from the gun. I expect them to bang heads again next week and think the finish will look very similar. If Blaesser is going to turn the tables, she will need to get away from Lanzell by 2 miles...which, is not impossible, but will be damn tough. If the race is close at 2.5 miles, I think Lanzell has the edge. But, these two are both very good and will be very competitive at Nats.

Whoolery from the Rock did a great job gaping the pack, and put in some nice surges to seperate her from everybody else. I think these three will finish in the same order next week. And, 4, 5, and 6 overall will be very close to each other and it will be interesting to see who finishes top 5 to get births to nationals.

The Kutz women and Boro women looked like the only two teams out there ready to race. They both ran very tough, went out and got themselves into a position to run well. Obviously Boro won, but I had kind of expected that. What surprised me was how tough the Kutz women ran. I thought each of them really went out and raced the people around them and ran tough. Every single one of their top 5 outkicked somebody to the line...which just means they wanted to beat teams like IUP and Bloom. I think these two teams will both earn bids to Nats next week. They just looked tougher than everybody else.

One other note...Nicole Blaesser's little sister -- Laura -- ran a great race...starting under control and moving up steadily throughout the race...pretty good for a frosh. I only point this out because if any PSAC women that weren't in the top 15-20 today want to run a great race next week, get near Laura Blaesser and follow her lead...it's a great tactic/strategy.

Hoovis

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Hoovis’ 2006 PSAC/Regionals XC Predictions

Last year, I gave the nod to the Boro in my early season predictions. I cited reasons such as “year in and year out they prepare well through the season and run their best when it counts” and that “Watts’ coaching experience coupled with the team depth” would be enough to get past Haven.

Well, this year, I think those same reasons – running at their best when it counts, good coaching, and team depth – will once again be the key to finishing atop the PSAC this year…however, it will not be the Boro but rather Haven that will shine on these three fronts. And, yes, I’m well aware of the fact that I bet wrong last year as Haven beat Boro by 7 points…and that depth I thought Boro had just wasn’t quite there. But, I’m not betting against Haven this year…despite the fact that some seem to think them an underdog, given Robson’s reported bout with mono and Blood’s notable absence from early races.

My top 10 team predictions are as follows:

#1 – Lock Haven

If Robson does have mono, then he will be tough to count on; however, it is likely that he will have some good races along the way. I would expect him to actually run well at states, but possibly to have trouble coming back the following week at Regionals…as back to back races are really tough with mono.

Blood…who knows. You have to expect that this guy is going to run at some point. And, he’s good enough to be one of the conferences top runners, even if he’s not totally healthy. So, I think he’ll be in the hunt when it counts.

And, of course you’ve got the other Haven Senior – Benson who seems to be running well. You couple that with Shawn Moore and what he brings to that team and you’d have yourself a stellar top four if they were all healthy. Given that there are some question marks, then let’s assume that only 2 of the 4 can really contribute at/near 100% at states and that one is worth only 70% (maybe fifth man on their team) and the other doesn’t run…that means you need to fill in with two more guys.

And, they’ve got some good individuals to choose from. Greg Davis…a bit aloof and mysterious with his absences…the kid is talented out the ass and can get it done. Pomerantz will continue to improve throughout the season and wouldn’t surprise me if he ended being their #4 or possibly even their #3 runner this year. And, Spidell can be a steady contributor. So, Haven needs two out of those three to step it up and I have a hard time believing that it won’t happen. So, this year, I say Haven wins hands down.

#2 – Ship

This is a tough pick for me. As I’ve stated previously, I really believe that this was the Rock’s slot had they not redshirted some key guys. But, they’re not here so…

I want to pick Ship for this slot, as in both my gut/heart I’m rooting for them. But, every year, Boro seems to find a way. With that said, I can not recall seeing a Boro team before that had such little depth. And, I’m going to make a slight bet that Hanslovan will get healthy and that Spence can pull together a fairly young team.

In my mind, Ship will be the most interesting team on the men’s side this year. Depending on how things go, this team could either be really good (top-15 at Nats) or totally fall apart and let Boro pass them by. I’d guess they’ll be somewhere in between but good enough to place 2nd.

It is a bit concerning that Hanslovan was missing from action at last weekend’s Bloomsburg race and that he was anything but “on top of his game” at the alumni race/season opener. I know it was just a race with the alum (including Alum Randy Lowe’s Frostburg team), but him finishing 10th means something is not right.

Thompson and Gracey seemed to run fairly well at Bloom. It’s tough to really tell, as it was a very deep meet. But they were both ahead of Bloom’s second guy. And, then the Ship depth took over putting four guys ahead of Bloom’s #3. One of these four was Pete Lobianco who may be redshirting as he ran unattached. And, when I think back to the good Ship teams over the years, this is pretty much what they looked like. Nothing stellar early in the season. Some depth and a bunch of guys running together…Ship always races well in packs of 2-3 of their runners where they pull each other along.

None of the times at Bloom were fast, but judging by some pics I’ve seen it looks like parts of it anyway were a mud bog. This makes it tough to say how good this team really is, but given their overall proximity to Shepherd, they’d probably be in contention for a Nats slot without Hansloven (although I think they would fall short). But, I’m banking on Hansloven returning and leading this team to Nats and, more importantly, leaving Boro home.

#3 -- Boro

The Fighting Scots will probably be tough up front with Niemira showing something early in the season. He’ll be tough come the end of the year, and could be in contention for the individual title. And, Boro will likely fair okay through their #2 and #3 spots as well. Right now, Arthur has been running as #2, but expect McCabe to pass him by season’s end.

And, after that – who knows. And, quite frankly, who cares. Unless Watts pulls something out of his bag of tricks (and I have a feeling that bag is getting a little old and empty), then these guys are sitting at home come Nats. And, I don’t think that has ever happened before…at least not in my time. Somewhere along the way, I promised myself I would NOT bet against the Boro. I used that philosophy last year when I picked Boro to upset Haven at PSAC’s. It didn’t happen and I’m not making the same mistake twice. Sorry Watts, but no Florida trip this November…unless you’re going to the Keys for some fishing.

And, now it gets interesting…

#4 – IUP

I’m going to go on a limb here and go with IUP here.

I might be a little biased here, but feel they are one of the few teams (beyond those already mentioned) that has a really solid #1 and #2 guy (with #5 Concord being the one potential exception). Medina is tough and was with Weiss much of last year’s psac race. It’s an early season race, but he is 1-0 against Weiss this year so far. I’m not saying he’s better than Weiss (remember, Weiss was top-five at Nats last year)…but he is one hell of a tough runner. Not the most talented, but one of the most dedicated. And, you’ve all seen me talk about Kruttschnitt’s talent on this board before. I predicted him to have a breakout year last year in cross and he did, finishing 15th at PSAC’s. And, I’m predicting him to make another big jump this year as well…finishing 7th/8th at states and 10th – 15Th at Regionals (longer distance and back-to-back races always hurt the 1500m runner – unless you’re from Ship or Edinboro).

And, soph Nate Shelly is running well early in the year….but it really drops off from there. I mean really drops off. There were a ton of runners between IUP’s 3rd and 4th runners at Buffalo including 4 Rock guys. That’s really pretty bad, considering that Rock is redshirting two key runners. If Rock were at full strength, they would have put 8 guys across the line before IUP’s fourth runner. That’s really pathetic, making me wonder if I have these guys ranked way too high.

But, Adam Shinksy was not in that lineup and sophomore Bobby Boston seems to be running well as of late. While disappointing early in the year, Matt Gaudet will likely come around as the season progress.

This should be a very solid team. One that returns most of what it had last year, only with more experience. I’m concerned that half of this team did their work over the summer and half did not and that could get exposed later in the year. This team could finish anywhere from 4th to 7th. Unfortunately, I think that they had the potential (although won’t live up to it) to be as high as 3rd this year.

#5 – Concord

I don’t know enough about Concord. Dirt made the call on these guys first, noting that they should be good, and on paper there’s some truth to that. Probably won’t really know until Ohio University (one of the few big meets they run). But, given that they have a good top three, that should put them in the top five at regions, as few other teams have that going for them. I’ll see what happens with their #4 and #5 runners and adjust accordingly.

#6 – Slippery Rock

This team could finish higher than this…and I could easily see them ending up fourth. Weiss taking the 1-spot overall at Regionals always helps the scoring. And, frosh Matt Grey looks really good early in the year. And Dustin and Combs are solid, with a few others such as Lubecki capable of being in their top-five. I also have to give a shout out here from my fellow “Chuck” – Adam Smelko. The dude improved a lot since last year, and I look for him to work hard and be the Rock’s 7th or 8th man in 2 years…on a team that will be pretty good.

#7 -- Bloomsburg

Shepherd’s legit. No doubt about that. Proved it by hanging back at PSAC’s last year and not getting sucked along with Weiss and Medina, only to bust one at Regionals when it really counted. He looks to be in good early season form, and he won the Bloom meet even easier than it looks on paper (and it looks pretty easy on paper). Marcoe mixed it up well with the Ship guys, but the rest of the Bloom team just seemed out of the race…although I thought Merkel had a good race for a freshman making him somebody to keep an eye on as freshman tend to move around a lot from the beginning to the end of the season (some get way better while others wear down and fall off toward the end of the long season).

This is a good team, but not a great team. They just don’t have the horses beyond Shepherd to be a legitimate contender this year. Their coach thinks they can be a top-five team at regionals, but I think they just miss and finish 7th.

#8 -- East Stroudsburg

This is such a fast growing region of the state, I don’t understand how this program isn’t better each year. Pinto is the first decent runner I can remember them having since Seth Kuchar back in 1993. Pinto will likely be an All-regional runner, but there’s just too big of a gap between him and the rest of their team. To some extent, this is the same problem that Bloom has, but Sheperd is a top-3 runner and Pinto a top-15 runner so the entire Bloom pack (while gapped from Shepherd) are all likely to finish further up overall than the Strous pack. Tough to say who good (or not good) this team really is, but I have a feeling that big gap between Pinto and the rest will get magnified this weekend at Spiked Shoe….errr, correct that – the Harry S. Groves Spiked Shoe Invitational as it is now called.

#9 -- Kutztown

Don’t know much about this team. They kind of remind me of Bloomsburg without the front runner. However, the Ktown 4 and 5 runners may be better than Bloom’s 4 and 5 guys. And, I know there are some Ktown fans on this board who think that they have a shot at Nats, but I’m not seeing that one. They just can’t compete at any of the positions – they can’t beat the aforementioned other team’s 1 guy with their 1 guy, 2 guy with their 2 guy, etc.

On an individual note, you’ve got to hand it to Pat Bone for doing the work, as he seems to be one of the PSAC’s most improved runners…however, his teammate, the other Pat (Coyne) who at one time was a top-40 at regionals runner seems to be heading the opposite direction, perhaps plagued by injuries (?).

#10 -- Millersville

Team didn’t show much at Bloomsburg. Andrew Butler ran pretty well, but that’s it. Just don’t think this team can compete.[/quote]

i agree. that race was "true" cross country weather. muddy, wet and slippery. it was a great race and so much fun. good job to all of you girls and guys that ran specially if you slipped and fell. I had never ran a race as wild as this one at PSACs. Lock Haven ran awesome as expected (way to place 10th Spidell) and Boro came to run today. Boro girls won with only the 5 girls they brought so they proved thats all you need. Kutztwon, great race, They looked so good out there. Lanzel and Blaeeser kicked some butt as well. Good luck to everyone at regionals.

-jorge

Ship's number 2 guy DNF'ed after taking a knee to the head....at least thats the word among people in one team's tent. Not sure his name, but people said they saw a SHip guy go down and not go back. I was surprised to see the order they had as the guys who ran 2-3 for them are normally 5-6 or even 6-7. ESU's Nesbitt was in the race and he finished 51st....no idea what happend there but had be been up with Pinto that would have made a difference.

Yes, I totally missed Nesbitt. I thought that he was in there, because I had not heard otherwise...but, I didn't see him anywhere. I guess I wasn't looking far enough back in the pack. Wow, that's very surprising. Then, perhaps all those who ripped me a new arse hole for not ranking ESU in the top-two can explain.

Not sure about the Ship guy, but trust me...from my conversations with specnce...they just never got into the race.

Both of these teams are way better than they ran today -- so, hopefully they'll be mighty pissed about today's race and show that they ARE much better next week.

Jorge...fun race, hah, you fell on your freakin' face like three times, didn't you? Once, less than a half mile from the finish when you, clark and weiss were together. It was a wild, wild race and one where runner "strength" (vs. speed) prevails. Best of luck next week, man. Go out and bang heads...like you do better than anybody!

Hoovis

To change things up a little bit...a few things I learned from today's psac race:

1.) It all comes down to heart -- those with the most heart did well today

2.) And miles -- those who put in big mileage and did the work over the summer and through the season, were rewarded by being stronger than everybody else in the mud today

3.) It does no good for a coach to scream at a woman who drops out of a race -- there are better ways to make a point and motivate an athlete

4.) It does do good to admit when your men's team ran like a bunch of pussies -- and a coach isn't afraid to tell them as much

5.) I knew this one already, but it is a good reminder -- Edinboro is tough and Tradition DOES mean a hell of a lot

6.) Blood is great, Weiss is one hell of a smart runner, and Jorge is still the man

and, my favorite of them all....

7.) Chris Rauber and Mike Platt -- former all americans at Edinboro -- were both "shagged" at the IUP cross country house before...Platt on the front porch and Rauber, apparently, with a less then thin (is that the politically correct term these days?) woman

Hoovis

heart can only take an individual so far on a course that seriously hampers certain runners (physically), as well as, runners with different tools (as you mentioned strength v. speed) more than others. Individuals with certain physical traits can better run up to their ability (potential) in such conditions, whereas, others with distinctly different phyical attributes (body size, weight, height, to name a few) simply display a harder time in doing so.

"Heart" in a race like this plays a role, but so do a number of other factors.

Zen:

There is certainly truth in what you say...as if it was only about heart, Jorge Medina would've of surely won :)

Hoovis

Drew nesbitt fell going to the hospital hill ... I was cheering for Pinto and Nesbitt and Nesbitt just goes down. But ESU def. ran bad.

Good job everyone

Some people rely too much on heart, and try to completely ignore the fact that you have to be in shape in order to perform. It can't be done.

About today's race, on a personal level it was a blast. I just wish that this race happened in the middle of the season and not at PSAC's when people are looking to make a statement. As for the people who had a bad race and still put on a ballsy performance, congrats on putting it all together at the right time and not letting anything stand in your way. However, I fully expect the results to be considerably different and for the team standings to shake up some next week.

Way to dominate Haven.

Way to show up like you always do Boro.

Clarion... Shiiiiiiit!

Everyone else, we all know who are targets are, good luck to everyone who feels they need to prove something. You only have one week to use the mud as an excuse, so get ready.

Bloom, thanks to the guys who showed the IUP fellas some nice hospitality.

Looks like it was an exciting race...Edinboro proves again why you should never count them out...Clarion, I haven't been this impressed with a team in a long time...Haven, Coach Russell has truly made something special out of that team since taking over...as for the mud, nobody can use that as an excuse...everyone ran in it, nobody gains an advantage by training in it, some people showed up ready to run, some people needed an excuse...Good luck at Regionals everybody

does anyone know if there were photos taken by anyone that might be posted on the internet for the PSAC meet? i remember 2 years ago when PSACS were at Kutztown there was someone taking photos just before the finish but i dont remember the website. i think it would be fun to look at photos from the PSAC meet because of the conditions.

-jorge

I can't believe I fell for that. That was disgusting.

What happened to all of the chatter? I am amazed at how few reactions psac's generated. Was it because we all feel like idiots for doubting boro? Was it because we all feel like idiots for hyping esu? Was it because we are all still in disbelief that Clarion is that good?

Come on, i would have expected more chatter from this board...hell, it's so quiet I'd even welcome a personal slam right about now. Let's whoop it up!!!

Hoovis

hey jorge, im sure papa took enough pictures so i'll see what i can do about gettin you a cd of them...see ya this weekend man

THREE tacos for the winner of regionals...

i think the psac meet shows there's a lot of mediocre teams in the psac. lock haven is legit but everyone else is fighting for respect. scoring 100 at the conference meet shouldn't get you 2nd. i am very impressed with the depth of the top individuals. there's a lot of runners with all-american potential sitting in that top 10. the 4-5 runners on boro, ship, clarion, iup, esu... have got to step up and get their team to nationals next week. i like ship's chances. i believe it was dillon gracey who didn't finish for ship and he's normally been their number 2 and was all-conference caliber at least. i haven't heard his status, so i hope he's good to go this weekend. ship's generally better over 10k as is boro, so i think one of them will get that 2nd spot.

i think blood's on a mission this year. as long as he's healthy, i don't see anyone from this region beating him. i kinda hope lock haven just runs conservative as a team this weekend, making sure they get to nationals and not worrying too much about running their best race. some of their guys that aren't at 100% yet are really going to benefit from a couple more weeks of training before nationals.

rock fellas, what kind of condition is the course in? gonna be anything like bloom?

thanks bluman...see you on saturday.