Last 3000m was run in 7:35, final 2000m in 4:55. Nobody has ever closed as fast as that.
Hmmm, okay.
In the 2008 final the 2000m split was 5.22.29 with Bekele about 1m back of the lead - so we can estimate Bekeles split with fairly good accuracy because we can see exactly how far back he was at that time. At about 6.2m/s running speed, 1 meter is approximately 0.16 of a second - 5.22.45. His finishing time was of course 12.57.82 which gives 7.35.3-7.35.4 for the final 3000m and I feel pretty good about the accuracy of those numbers.
Now yes, the final 2000m was fractionally slower - 4.56.97 (vs 4.55.3), but I think we can cut Bekele some slack given he went through 3000m 17.5 seconds faster (8.00.85 vs 8.18.3) and he did lead the entire final 2150m.
But let's go back and focus on the final 3000m because that's more impressive. So if Bekele could run just as fast (surely we aren't splitting hairs on 3-4 tenths of a second here) for that final 3000m in a race that was considerably faster and he also ran 53.87 for the last lap and celebrating with 150m to go (vs Jakob 53.99 pushing pretty hard), where does that leave us now?
Bear in mind this was Bekele in 2008 - undoubtedly a tougher racer (who finally got his tactics right vs trying to run a "milers" 5000m), but well past his top-end peak performance period (which was really 2004-2005 - his WR setting years). Conversely this was certainly Jakobs best career year to date (maybe there is better to come, maybe not) - but safe to say he was in pretty good shape that year running 3.26.73, 3.28.24 from the front in an Olympic final, and of course 7.17.55 for 3000m.
So with the context of the 2008 race above - are we really using that 2024 final as some manifesto of anecdotal evidence that he can run 12.30? If we are, then what on earth was Bekeles potential in 2008? 12.25? 12.20?
Context is everything, and that's a fact.
I didn't make myself clear, I was simply responding to the poster who claimed it was a jogfest when really it had something more special than that. FWIW Jakob had identical splits in Budapest too and his final 400/1000 was 52.45/2:21.07. Bekele's final K was 2:25.30. Jakob's final 3k was in 7:34.45, the fastest final 3000m in Global Championship history (2023). In fact, Jakob's last lap was the fastest final 400m in championship history too. Nobody has closed faster than 52.45 for the win. It's kind of hard to reduce Budapest and Paris to just a "milers" 5000. I guess you could call it a "3000m's" 5000m race? Having both the fastest last 3000m and 400m while still being decently fast (we are sort of splitting hairs between 12:57.82 and 13:11.30
In the 2008 final the 2000m split was 5.22.29 with Bekele about 1m back of the lead - so we can estimate Bekeles split with fairly good accuracy because we can see exactly how far back he was at that time. At about 6.2m/s running speed, 1 meter is approximately 0.16 of a second - 5.22.45. His finishing time was of course 12.57.82 which gives 7.35.3-7.35.4 for the final 3000m and I feel pretty good about the accuracy of those numbers.
Now yes, the final 2000m was fractionally slower - 4.56.97 (vs 4.55.3), but I think we can cut Bekele some slack given he went through 3000m 17.5 seconds faster (8.00.85 vs 8.18.3) and he did lead the entire final 2150m.
But let's go back and focus on the final 3000m because that's more impressive. So if Bekele could run just as fast (surely we aren't splitting hairs on 3-4 tenths of a second here) for that final 3000m in a race that was considerably faster and he also ran 53.87 for the last lap and celebrating with 150m to go (vs Jakob 53.99 pushing pretty hard), where does that leave us now?
Bear in mind this was Bekele in 2008 - undoubtedly a tougher racer (who finally got his tactics right vs trying to run a "milers" 5000m), but well past his top-end peak performance period (which was really 2004-2005 - his WR setting years). Conversely this was certainly Jakobs best career year to date (maybe there is better to come, maybe not) - but safe to say he was in pretty good shape that year running 3.26.73, 3.28.24 from the front in an Olympic final, and of course 7.17.55 for 3000m.
So with the context of the 2008 race above - are we really using that 2024 final as some manifesto of anecdotal evidence that he can run 12.30? If we are, then what on earth was Bekeles potential in 2008? 12.25? 12.20?
Context is everything, and that's a fact.
I didn't make myself clear, I was simply responding to the poster who claimed it was a jogfest when really it had something more special than that. FWIW Jakob had identical splits in Budapest too and his final 400/1000 was 52.45/2:21.07. Bekele's final K was 2:25.30. Jakob's final 3k was in 7:34.45, the fastest final 3000m in Global Championship history (2023). In fact, Jakob's last lap was the fastest final 400m in championship history too. Nobody has closed faster than 52.45 for the win. It's kind of hard to reduce Budapest and Paris to just a "milers" 5000. I guess you could call it a "3000m's" 5000m race? Having both the fastest last 3000m and 400m while still being decently fast (we are sort of splitting hairs between 12:57.82 and 13:11.30
In the 2008 final the 2000m split was 5.22.29 with Bekele about 1m back of the lead - so we can estimate Bekeles split with fairly good accuracy because we can see exactly how far back he was at that time. At about 6.2m/s running speed, 1 meter is approximately 0.16 of a second - 5.22.45. His finishing time was of course 12.57.82 which gives 7.35.3-7.35.4 for the final 3000m and I feel pretty good about the accuracy of those numbers.
Now yes, the final 2000m was fractionally slower - 4.56.97 (vs 4.55.3), but I think we can cut Bekele some slack given he went through 3000m 17.5 seconds faster (8.00.85 vs 8.18.3) and he did lead the entire final 2150m.
But let's go back and focus on the final 3000m because that's more impressive. So if Bekele could run just as fast (surely we aren't splitting hairs on 3-4 tenths of a second here) for that final 3000m in a race that was considerably faster and he also ran 53.87 for the last lap and celebrating with 150m to go (vs Jakob 53.99 pushing pretty hard), where does that leave us now?
Bear in mind this was Bekele in 2008 - undoubtedly a tougher racer (who finally got his tactics right vs trying to run a "milers" 5000m), but well past his top-end peak performance period (which was really 2004-2005 - his WR setting years). Conversely this was certainly Jakobs best career year to date (maybe there is better to come, maybe not) - but safe to say he was in pretty good shape that year running 3.26.73, 3.28.24 from the front in an Olympic final, and of course 7.17.55 for 3000m.
So with the context of the 2008 race above - are we really using that 2024 final as some manifesto of anecdotal evidence that he can run 12.30? If we are, then what on earth was Bekeles potential in 2008? 12.25? 12.20?
Context is everything, and that's a fact.
I didn't make myself clear, I was simply responding to the poster who claimed it was a jogfest when really it had something more special than that. FWIW Jakob had identical splits in Budapest too and his final 400/1000 was 52.45/2:21.07. Bekele's final K was 2:25.30. Jakob's final 3k was in 7:34.45, the fastest final 3000m in Global Championship history (2023). In fact, Jakob's last lap was the fastest final 400m in championship history too. Nobody has closed faster than 52.45 for the win. It's kind of hard to reduce Budapest and Paris to just a "milers" 5000. I guess you could call it a "3000m's" 5000m race? Having both the fastest last 3000m and 400m while still being decently fast (we are sort of splitting hairs between 12:57.82 and 13:11.30
This is an interesting conversation. I don't really have an opinion on what Jakob could run because I find most of these discussions end up being very annoying. One observation though that I have is that Jakob ran an equivalent 3000m time around the same exact time period he ran 12:48.45. He ran 7:27.05 in 2020 in Rome. The equivalent time according to World Athletics points is 12:47.06 and since it's been established that Jakob ran a tough race with lots of wide bends and some leading, 12:48.45 turns into 12:47.06. Since then he has improved 9.5 seconds in the 3000m. I don't know but I think Jakob can get really close and perhaps even smash it if the performance trends are similar. Nothing definitive though.
Great runners can have a great close when the first 50 to 60 percent of a race is slow. He ran a slow first 3000 and had a fast last 2000. Doesn't mean he could have broken the WR.
Yes but it wasn’t a jogfest.
Jakob's first k in Paris was 2:50.7. That's 14:13 5k pace. Slower than the women's WR pace.
Jakob's second k was 2:47.6. That's 13.58 5k pace. Exactly the women's WR pace.
Kelvin Kiptum had faster kilometers during his marathon WR!
If you don't call 14:05 pace through the first 2k a jogfest for men racing a 5k at the Olympic level, what do you call it?
Jakob's third k was 2:40.0. That's 13:20 5k pace. Slower than 10k WR pace.
Jakob's fourth k was 2:34.3. That's 12:51 5k pace. Fast but not even 5k WR pace.
Jakob's fifth k was 2:21.06. That is special.
It was a very slow first 2k, a slow third k, a good fourth k, and a special last k.
ignoring the INDOOR 1500 and mile points, because we all know the indoor points tables are broken,
Jakob's top 4 world athletics points races are:
4. 1500: 1292 pts
3. 2 Mile: 1304 points
2. 2000: 1307 points
1. 3000: 1320 points
so the trend here is not that Jakob degrades after 1500 meters
All the "WA points" are nonsense. But anyhow, how's Jakob's 5000? How many points is 12:48?
Peak 5000 Jakob could not get close enough to 12:35 to smell a Cheptegei fart.
12:48 is 1253 points, but that was a younger Jakob who wan't in his prime. He ran 7:27.05 in the same time frame. You have to be naive to not think Jakob has a serious chance at it. Kiplimo, the guy who beat Jakob in that 7:27 went on to run 12:48 the same season. He ran 12:40.96 in 2024, close to when he ran his HM WR. 3000m is closer to 5000m. Jakob can "smell it"
I didn't make myself clear, I was simply responding to the poster who claimed it was a jogfest when really it had something more special than that. FWIW Jakob had identical splits in Budapest too and his final 400/1000 was 52.45/2:21.07. Bekele's final K was 2:25.30. Jakob's final 3k was in 7:34.45, the fastest final 3000m in Global Championship history (2023). In fact, Jakob's last lap was the fastest final 400m in championship history too. Nobody has closed faster than 52.45 for the win. It's kind of hard to reduce Budapest and Paris to just a "milers" 5000. I guess you could call it a "3000m's" 5000m race? Having both the fastest last 3000m and 400m while still being decently fast (we are sort of splitting hairs between 12:57.82 and 13:11.30
Uh yeah, we are splitting hairs between 12.57.82 and 13.11.30
Tell you what, go and watch the Budapest final and top the clock at 12.57.8 and see where Katir and Jakob are on the track. They have about 97m to run. That's why we are "splitting hairs".
There is no comparison to Bekele 2008. I don't care if Jakob ran his final 3000m in 7.34.45 in 2023 in a 13.11 race - it's not as good as Bekele running merely a second slower in race that was 100m up the damn track.
And I don't get how "closing in 52.45" - the "fastest final 400m in championship history" means anything. Kipchoge ran 53.6 to close and win a 12.52 race. Farah won the 2017 DL final in 13.06.07 race with 52.61 in the final lap. What's your point again?
Jakob's first k in Paris was 2:50.7. That's 14:13 5k pace. Slower than the women's WR pace.
Jakob's second k was 2:47.6. That's 13.58 5k pace. Exactly the women's WR pace.
Kelvin Kiptum had faster kilometers during his marathon WR!
If you don't call 14:05 pace through the first 2k a jogfest for men racing a 5k at the Olympic level, what do you call it?
Jakob's third k was 2:40.0. That's 13:20 5k pace. Slower than 10k WR pace.
Jakob's fourth k was 2:34.3. That's 12:51 5k pace. Fast but not even 5k WR pace.
Jakob's fifth k was 2:21.06. That is special.
It was a very slow first 2k, a slow third k, a good fourth k, and a special last k.
Almost every championship 5000m is run in that manner. The reason why I wouldn’t lump Paris into that crowd is because Jakob ran the fastest last 3k,2k,1k in global championship history. That’s what differentiates it.
Jakob's first k in Paris was 2:50.7. That's 14:13 5k pace. Slower than the women's WR pace.
Jakob's second k was 2:47.6. That's 13.58 5k pace. Exactly the women's WR pace.
Kelvin Kiptum had faster kilometers during his marathon WR!
If you don't call 14:05 pace through the first 2k a jogfest for men racing a 5k at the Olympic level, what do you call it?
Jakob's third k was 2:40.0. That's 13:20 5k pace. Slower than 10k WR pace.
Jakob's fourth k was 2:34.3. That's 12:51 5k pace. Fast but not even 5k WR pace.
Jakob's fifth k was 2:21.06. That is special.
It was a very slow first 2k, a slow third k, a good fourth k, and a special last k.
Almost every championship 5000m is run in that manner. The reason why I wouldn’t lump Paris into that crowd is because Jakob ran the fastest last 3k,2k,1k in global championship history. That’s what differentiates it.
Jakob's 8:18 for the first 3k is slow compared to most of the recent Olympic finals.
In the 2021 Olympics, the first 3k was 7:55.
In the 2016 Olympics, the first 3k was 7:57.
In the 2008 Olympics, the first 3k was 8:00.
In the 2004 Olympics, the first 3k was 8:10.
A fast last 2k doesn't mean much to me if the first 3k was slower than what 7 women have run for that distance. To the point of the thread, it doesn't mean he could have broken the WR.
I didn't make myself clear, I was simply responding to the poster who claimed it was a jogfest when really it had something more special than that. FWIW Jakob had identical splits in Budapest too and his final 400/1000 was 52.45/2:21.07. Bekele's final K was 2:25.30. Jakob's final 3k was in 7:34.45, the fastest final 3000m in Global Championship history (2023). In fact, Jakob's last lap was the fastest final 400m in championship history too. Nobody has closed faster than 52.45 for the win. It's kind of hard to reduce Budapest and Paris to just a "milers" 5000. I guess you could call it a "3000m's" 5000m race? Having both the fastest last 3000m and 400m while still being decently fast (we are sort of splitting hairs between 12:57.82 and 13:11.30
Uh yeah, we are splitting hairs between 12.57.82 and 13.11.30
Tell you what, go and watch the Budapest final and top the clock at 12.57.8 and see where Katir and Jakob are on the track. They have about 97m to run. That's why we are "splitting hairs".
There is no comparison to Bekele 2008. I don't care if Jakob ran his final 3000m in 7.34.45 in 2023 in a 13.11 race - it's not as good as Bekele running merely a second slower in race that was 100m up the damn track.
And I don't get how "closing in 52.45" - the "fastest final 400m in championship history" means anything. Kipchoge ran 53.6 to close and win a 12.52 race. Farah won the 2017 DL final in 13.06.07 race with 52.61 in the final lap. What's your point again?
The point was that Jakob’s races in 2023/2024 being labelled as jogfests is misleading. Check the response of the original poster I responded to. Bekele’s on paper is more impressive but you have to consider the speed of the last kilometer. Find a race closing in 7:34 and 2:21 for the last 3k and 1k. I can’t. Rewatch the race as well, Jakob tripped several times over the 2nd half of that race which surely affected him as well, not to mention the illness that affected him during the championship. Add to that he ran the fastest last lap ever as well. It’s arguably the most impressive burnup ever. And then the rest of your examples don’t make any sense. 2003 was an impressive race but the last K was in 2:24.33 and Kipchoge’s last 2k was in 5:07 and final 3k in 7:46. That final 400 doesn’t seem as impressive then. I’m not a professional runner but closing as hard as Jakob did is arguably harder. And then that Farah race? Seriously? His final 2k in that race was close to 5:10, a massive difference from 4:55. 2:28 for his final K too.
All I’m saying is that Jakob’s race was special, doesn’t point to 12:30 fitness but I think he can get close to the WR. It wasn’t just a jogfest.
Almost every championship 5000m is run in that manner. The reason why I wouldn’t lump Paris into that crowd is because Jakob ran the fastest last 3k,2k,1k in global championship history. That’s what differentiates it.
Jakob's 8:18 for the first 3k is slow compared to most of the recent Olympic finals.
In the 2021 Olympics, the first 3k was 7:55.
In the 2016 Olympics, the first 3k was 7:57.
In the 2008 Olympics, the first 3k was 8:00.
In the 2004 Olympics, the first 3k was 8:10.
A fast last 2k doesn't mean much to me if the first 3k was slower than what 7 women have run for that distance. To the point of the thread, it doesn't mean he could have broken the WR.
None of those races finished as fast as Jakob’s over the last half of the race other than Bekele’s. Are you trying to argue those races weren’t jogfests? The main distinction is that Jakob’s was a burnup that resulted in historic closes over from 400-3000m to go. I wouldn’t lump it with the other jogfests.
Jakob's 8:18 for the first 3k is slow compared to most of the recent Olympic finals.
In the 2021 Olympics, the first 3k was 7:55.
In the 2016 Olympics, the first 3k was 7:57.
In the 2008 Olympics, the first 3k was 8:00.
In the 2004 Olympics, the first 3k was 8:10.
A fast last 2k doesn't mean much to me if the first 3k was slower than what 7 women have run for that distance. To the point of the thread, it doesn't mean he could have broken the WR.
None of those races finished as fast as Jakob’s over the last half of the race other than Bekele’s. Are you trying to argue those races weren’t jogfests? The main distinction is that Jakob’s was a burnup that resulted in historic closes over from 400-3000m to go. I wouldn’t lump it with the other jogfests.
None of those races finished as fast as Jakob’s over the last half of the race other than Bekele’s. Are you trying to argue those races weren’t jogfests? The main distinction is that Jakob’s was a burnup that resulted in historic closes over from 400-3000m to go. I wouldn’t lump it with the other jogfests.
So you admit the first 3k in Paris was a jogfest.
Saying something is a jogfest has a negative connotation. I’ve already shown how special the race was historically. There’s a distinction, but I won’t quibble anymore.
Uh yeah, we are splitting hairs between 12.57.82 and 13.11.30
Tell you what, go and watch the Budapest final and top the clock at 12.57.8 and see where Katir and Jakob are on the track. They have about 97m to run. That's why we are "splitting hairs".
There is no comparison to Bekele 2008. I don't care if Jakob ran his final 3000m in 7.34.45 in 2023 in a 13.11 race - it's not as good as Bekele running merely a second slower in race that was 100m up the damn track.
And I don't get how "closing in 52.45" - the "fastest final 400m in championship history" means anything. Kipchoge ran 53.6 to close and win a 12.52 race. Farah won the 2017 DL final in 13.06.07 race with 52.61 in the final lap. What's your point again?
The point was that Jakob’s races in 2023/2024 being labelled as jogfests is misleading. Check the response of the original poster I responded to. Bekele’s on paper is more impressive but you have to consider the speed of the last kilometer. Find a race closing in 7:34 and 2:21 for the last 3k and 1k. I can’t. Rewatch the race as well, Jakob tripped several times over the 2nd half of that race which surely affected him as well, not to mention the illness that affected him during the championship. Add to that he ran the fastest last lap ever as well. It’s arguably the most impressive burnup ever. And then the rest of your examples don’t make any sense. 2003 was an impressive race but the last K was in 2:24.33 and Kipchoge’s last 2k was in 5:07 and final 3k in 7:46. That final 400 doesn’t seem as impressive then. I’m not a professional runner but closing as hard as Jakob did is arguably harder. And then that Farah race? Seriously? His final 2k in that race was close to 5:10, a massive difference from 4:55. 2:28 for his final K too.
All I’m saying is that Jakob’s race was special, doesn’t point to 12:30 fitness but I think he can get close to the WR. It wasn’t just a jogfest.
Well then we fundamentally agree regarding the topic of the thread.
I think he could* have got close to the WR and I also am not definitively saying he couldn't have broken it. But I do think all the talk of sub 12.30 and times 15-20m up the track from the WR are bemusing because they really lack any basis other than "he ran 7.17" and "he beats all the 12.3X guys in championships".
Regarding "special" races - well I do struggle with the idea that any of his championship wins are so much more special than the others. Because you can cherry-pick any number (like a final lap, a final 1000m, a final 2, 3000m) and create a story out of it to suit your agenda if you want. Everything is contextual relative to what happened before it.
Was Jakobs 52.45 close out a 13.11 race in 2023 special? Of course it was - it won him a world title and it's a very fast final lap.
Was it more special than Cole Hocker running 52.62 for his final 400m going around 11 guys and running 12.58.3 last year to win his world title? No it's not. Just like it's no more special than Bekele in 2008, or Kipchoge in 2003. In fact if I want sit here and focus on elements of those races to build a case they are more "special" I can (as I showed was quite easy with the Bekele 2008 performance).
I feel like your trying to build a case to convince people Jakob is a great 5000m runner. You don't have to - everyone knows this. If he never wins another championship 5000m race he's already one of the greats and if he never gets back to his best he's already one of the greatest MD runners of all time because it's a very select group of humans who have ever run under 3.27, won Olympic titles at 1500m-5000m, won multiple world 5000m titles and set WR's at the level he has.