I'm not the poster you replied to but I completely agree with your side. Femke Bol was never going to be anywhere near the level of the current top three at 400 flat.
And she understands it herself. Just look at Bol's reaction when she ran 49.48 at European Team Championships last year. She was shocked. Hands to mouth in disbelief.
Kaczmarek has a bit of a mental block against Bol. She tightens up and never runs anything resembling her best race. A couple of victories over Kaczmarek have caused Bol's biggest supporters to greatly overstate her upside at 400 flat.
No one is over hyping Bol's potential at 400m flat. She's the world indoor record holder for goodness sake. And whilst specialising as a hurdler she has beaten Bukowiecka 8 times in a row (not 'a couple of victories') by, on average, a huge margin of half a second. To suggest this is simply down to the Pole having a mental block is doing Bol a disservice.
Just look at Bol's reaction when she ran 49.48 at European Team Championships last year. She was shocked. Hands to mouth in disbelief.
Kaczmarek has a bit of a mental block against Bol. She tightens up and never runs anything resembling her best race. [...]
Bol admitted afterwards that she just saw it wrong on the board and thought she'd ran her first 48s without much training for the event. It was just a silly mistake.
As for Bukowiecka (Kaczmarek), it was only after 2023 that she ran faster than Bol's PB, so before 2024 Bol was just faster. Last season she ran only one fast race and it was the final at Worlds (49.27). She didn't have a great season and raced Bol when she was starting to build up towards Worlds, which is why she wasn't as fast (yet).
With Bol now focusing on the 800m, it's futile to speculate about what she would have been capable of in the outdoor 400m if she focused a season on it. Bukowiecka has by far the better accolades in the outdoor 400m and even though she lost 8 times against Bol, she'll (probably) be forever known as the better 400m runner.
Just look at Bol's reaction when she ran 49.48 at European Team Championships last year. She was shocked. Hands to mouth in disbelief.
Kaczmarek has a bit of a mental block against Bol. She tightens up and never runs anything resembling her best race. [...]
Bol admitted afterwards that she just saw it wrong on the board and thought she'd ran her first 48s without much training for the event. It was just a silly mistake.
As for Bukowiecka (Kaczmarek), it was only after 2023 that she ran faster than Bol's PB, so before 2024 Bol was just faster. Last season she ran only one fast race and it was the final at Worlds (49.27). She didn't have a great season and raced Bol when she was starting to build up towards Worlds, which is why she wasn't as fast (yet).
With Bol now focusing on the 800m, it's futile to speculate about what she would have been capable of in the outdoor 400m if she focused a season on it. Bukowiecka has by far the better accolades in the outdoor 400m and even though she lost 8 times against Bol, she'll (probably) be forever known as the better 400m runner.
Yet nobody considers her a better 400m runner than Bol
This post was edited 8 minutes after it was posted.
On the US side of things, Cranny posted that she is racing this weekend and I would assume it will be in this meet -- looking at the start lists available I see Lucia Stafford (also a new M11 member) entered in the 3,000m. Cranny not listed in the 15 or the 3k and there doesn't seem to be a women's 15/mile. Also didn't see anyone else from M11 listed (but to be fair I only really know hunter bell and Keely). Any idea where the others would be racing this weekend, if they are?
No one is over hyping Bol's potential at 400m flat. She's the world indoor record holder for goodness sake. And whilst specialising as a hurdler she has beaten Bukowiecka 8 times in a row (not 'a couple of victories') by, on average, a huge margin of half a second. To suggest this is simply down to the Pole having a mental block is doing Bol a disservice.
But you insinuated she'd have been Top 3 in 2025 if she focused on it, i.e., she'd have been faster than Naser. You think Femke is capable of running faster than 48.19 in the 400m flat outdoors?
On the US side of things, Cranny posted that she is racing this weekend and I would assume it will be in this meet -- looking at the start lists available I see Lucia Stafford (also a new M11 member) entered in the 3,000m. Cranny not listed in the 15 or the 3k and there doesn't seem to be a women's 15/mile. Also didn't see anyone else from M11 listed (but to be fair I only really know hunter bell and Keely). Any idea where the others would be racing this weekend, if they are?
Karlsruhe INIT meet. She's there. with Georgia Hunter-Bell. Cranny is in the 3k with Laura Muir, Bell in the 800
Her coach says the goal is sub-2:00. He wants a fast race according to a Dutch newspaper (ad.nl). He is full of confidence. Maybe it’s just a world record attempt, like the 600m in two weeks. Will there be wavelights?
It’s a crap article, with lots of spelling mistakes. The journalist talked about beating the national record of Ellen van Langen , but I think he meant Ester Goossens.