Finally we can put this "they should move up to XXX distance and conquer the world" BS to bed.
Anyone on LRC over 10 years ago remembers the Jeremy Wariner talk where people speculated he could run 1:39 b/c he was faster than the pro 800 field over 400. Basically any fast white 400 runner gets talked about in this way.
The logic confounds me. Surely Usain Bolt should move to the 400 since he's the fastest at 200? And then as fastest at 400, he would clearly be the fastest at 800. And as the fastest at 800, he would be the best miler in the world ... Usain Bolt to break the marathon WR!
She will debut at like 2:05 and by season end I would deem success as breaking 2.
Bolt's coach always said he would have been a great 400m runner and it may have been his best event
People will expect results but it's unrealistic in the first year. She has to switch her whole training schedule around because 800m is a lot more about aerobics. This is basically a gap year for her where she can try something new.
Let's be clear here also; this was obviously not a decision taken lightly, and not without some training evidence to back it up. Bol has been doing a LOT of over distance work, but in particular these last two winter seasons. She was also separated from her female training partners on endurance days these last seasons, and instead ran with the men.
I'm anticipating she might ease herself in with a 600m first, but who knows. She might go all-in from day 1. Meuwly had Eveline Saalberg run 800s this year to improve her 400m endurance and she ran the event 9 times, as well as a couple of 600s. But she was straight in at 800m indoors in her opening race.
Consider that 52.66/ 54 second 400/400H Heike Meissner ran a 1:59; that 51.1/ 56.1 400/400H Linda Kisabaka ran 1:58; that 23.0/49.4 runner Jearl Miles-Clarke ran 1:56....I am pretty sure a 11.4/ 22.6 / 49.1/ 50.9/ 1:05 100/200/400/400h/500i runner in Bol can run 1:55
maybe something like that.
what comes to mind is that she probably time trialed a 600m on a few occasions and liked the result, where 800m is not pie in the sky. she has Mu credentials with 49 mid 400 and 22 high 200m. and 500m in 105, which is a 52 400 plus a 13 100m.
a jump from 400 to 800 is not unprecidented, alberto juanterano went from 400 to 800 for world record in his first season off 200/400 training plus horse genetics.
fernando mamede first ran the olympics in the 400 relay and went on to 10k world record.
lisa martin won the ny marathon starting as a 400h at oregon
Juha Väätäinen.won euro under 20, 400h, and went on to 5000m gold in the euros, and ranked number 1 in the world in 5k and 10k in 1971
these people are hybrids.
it is very exciting for us track nerds to see people push the boundaries.
too bad Bolt got heavy, i have him at 42 mid. if he went in that direction. even his 200m was compromised in the end with weight, with max speed gains coming with muscle max, and decline in speed endurance. where the 400 was out of the question
Cracks me up to read how many think that Femke and Laurent came up with this idea on a whim while doing shots in a tiny back street Tokyo bar a few weeks ago.
Let's be clear here also; this was obviously not a decision taken lightly, and not without some training evidence to back it up. Bol has been doing a LOT of over distance work, but in particular these last two winter seasons. She was also separated from her female training partners on endurance days these last seasons, and instead ran with the men.
I'm anticipating she might ease herself in with a 600m first, but who knows. She might go all-in from day 1. Meuwly had Eveline Saalberg run 800s this year to improve her 400m endurance and she ran the event 9 times, as well as a couple of 600s. But she was straight in at 800m indoors in her opening race.
Consider that 52.66/ 54 second 400/400H Heike Meissner ran a 1:59; that 51.1/ 56.1 400/400H Linda Kisabaka ran 1:58; that 23.0/49.4 runner Jearl Miles-Clarke ran 1:56....I am pretty sure a 11.4/ 22.6 / 49.1/ 50.9/ 1:05 100/200/400/400h/500i runner in Bol can run 1:55
maybe something like that.
what comes to mind is that she probably time trialed a 600m on a few occasions and liked the result, where 800m is not pie in the sky. she has Mu credentials with 49 mid 400 and 22 high 200m. and 500m in 105, which is a 52 400 plus a 13 100m.
a jump from 400 to 800 is not unprecidented, alberto juanterano went from 400 to 800 for world record in his first season off 200/400 training plus horse genetics.
fernando mamede first ran the olympics in the 400 relay and went on to 10k world record.
lisa martin won the ny marathon starting as a 400h at oregon
Juha Väätäinen.won euro under 20, 400h, and went on to 5000m gold in the euros, and ranked number 1 in the world in 5k and 10k in 1971
these people are hybrids.
it is very exciting for us track nerds to see people push the boundaries.
too bad Bolt got heavy, i have him at 42 mid. if he went in that direction. even his 200m was compromised in the end with weight, with max speed gains coming with muscle max, and decline in speed endurance. where the 400 was out of the question
Well we know Mamede was not in the 400m relay, but maybe you mean the 1600m relay.
I don't think any Femke fan seriously thinks she's suddenly going to run 1:55 in her first year at all. Clearly with 2026 being an off season, theyre treating this as a transition year, building up to LA.
I imagine in year 1 they will want to break 2 mins. I think she will do this.
if she is injury free between now and next summer then she's more likely to run 1:55 than not.
this nonsense about it being her "first year"; she's a seasoned, mature, well trained world champion at an adjacent event. with a winter and spring of focused work, will she be any less prepared to run 800m than werro? of course not.
it's no guarantee. her body might not handle the adjustment in the type of preparation she has to do. but dismissing her chances of being elite - maybe even number one - next year shows you're not paying attention.
Femke Bol is saying goodbye to the 400-meter hurdles, the event in which she has celebrated great success in recent years. The two-time world champion in that distance will focus on the 800-meter hurdles. "The 400-meter hurdles has given me so much, but I feel I want to push my limits," says Bol about her remarkable transition. "The 800-meter hurdles is a completely new challenge."
And so she should move. Best decision for her. She never stood a chance to beat the best in the 400MH and she has maxed out. Clearly she has reached her full potential running 51.3 for the hurdles with the best in the event being almost a full second faster. 51 low is by no means a small feat, but others will gain on her while she has maxed out her potential in that event.
I wish her well in the 800. I look forward to seeing how well she performs.
what comes to mind is that she probably time trialed a 600m on a few occasions and liked the result, where 800m is not pie in the sky. she has Mu credentials with 49 mid 400 and 22 high 200m. and 500m in 105, which is a 52 400 plus a 13 100m.
a jump from 400 to 800 is not unprecidented, alberto juanterano went from 400 to 800 for world record in his first season off 200/400 training plus horse genetics.
fernando mamede first ran the olympics in the 400 relay and went on to 10k world record.
lisa martin won the ny marathon starting as a 400h at oregon
Juha Väätäinen.won euro under 20, 400h, and went on to 5000m gold in the euros, and ranked number 1 in the world in 5k and 10k in 1971
these people are hybrids.
it is very exciting for us track nerds to see people push the boundaries.
too bad Bolt got heavy, i have him at 42 mid. if he went in that direction. even his 200m was compromised in the end with weight, with max speed gains coming with muscle max, and decline in speed endurance. where the 400 was out of the question
Well we know Mamede was not in the 400m relay, but maybe you mean the 1600m relay.
100% agree. Femke is not a first year weekend warrior. With much global success, and the second fastest athlete of all time in undoubtably one of the most demanding track events, I think she will make the physiological transition just fine.