D1 Women’s XC Championship Simulation Countdown

it's been since the middle of July. She said it flared up during the sunset tour 5k. That's why she didn't pull out of USA's until so close to the start of the event.

The average 3200 time for BYU recruits is much lower then 10:19.

Like it or not it is for the 4 class of 2026 recruits with a 3200 time. When I add the latest it will go up a little.

Even for the class of 2025 including Hedengren at 9:14, the average is 10:14.

But maybe I should take a math refresher in Provo? Or should we average the M and W together?

I agree BYU will likely be ranked 1st, but I think it will no longer be unanimous.

Without seeing much from OR, Hutchins of BYU, who FLs real 5th runners will be I would project at this time:

NC State 115
BYU 125
Oregon 130
Florida 190
New Mexico 190
Notre Dame 220

Backing off on FL at least for now as we see more performances at Gans Creek. But I would not be shocked if after SEC Championship I could project them closer to 150. Again, OR will likely be a mystery since I don't think they will be challenged at Big 10 or West Region.

Will my preseason Darkhorse, South Carolina, make it to the big dance? Probably limited Kolos points so they may need to beat Clemson, UNC, UVA, etc at Southeast Regional.

So you and your up voters think it makes sense for BYU to go into Natty’s ranked #1 regardless of whatever other teams are doing? Then what will be the storyline If NC State wins the trophy, “Wolfpack pulls the upset!”, “Who saw that coming after 8 straight National coaches polls ranking BYU as #1?” ? 😮

🙄 C’mon, man it’s at the point where it is hard to hide it. NCSTATE’s #4 just laid down a performance at Thomas Zimmer that exceeded that of BYU’s #1 on that course at Natty’s last year.

Let me repeat that: The performances of NCSTATE’s top 4 runners at Nuttycombe this year exceeded the performance of the #1 runner of the Championship Team last year.

😯

whether it makes sense is a different question that who we think the pollsters will rank#1. Recall they had Providence in the top 10 not long ago.

Let’s put this in perspective further. NCState’s #4 laid down a 15:33 performance at Nutty. At 2024 Natty’s Chloe Thomas ran a 15:33 performance; two weeks later Thomas ran a 15:17 at BYU. Again, we are talking about NCState’s #4 this year running immediately behind what Paityn Noe ran at Natty’s last year. 👀

Edit: “two weeks later Thomas ran a 15:17 on BU’s Indoor track.”

Michalak’s performance at Nutty exceeded that of Kimberly May’s 2024 Natty’s performance. May finished 10th in that race. NCState’s current top 4 on paper would be top 10 at last year’s Natty’s.

May went on to run an 8:44 in the 3000m at BU in January, finishing less than one second behind Stanford’s Amy Bunnage; Bunnage had already run a 15:00 at BU a month earlier.

Hi semihaze/gorun/Upper State!

^Idiotic. I’m the antithesis of that poser.

I think as long as byu wins impressively they will be #1. The details of who might be even better is beyond the poll. That is why they will compete.

In this thread, with the aid of the LACCTiC tool, I provided a concrete analysis of how the top four teams compare going into the post-season. I showed my work how I arrived at those numbers.

Do you care to share your analysis, or did you just go by “gut feel”?

You seem to take this very personally. I tried following your logic but could not as the LAACTiC ratings seemed to be some combination of best TiC, estimated TiC, and season average TiC. In my case I try to project the entire field, and not just 2-3-4 teams and based on where available runner vs runner data come up with a somewhat forced ranking of groups of runners. I also ignore many early season results where past performances have shown what the athletes can do. There definitely is some judgement ("gut feel") involved as no hard data, even from LAACTiC is available. The limited and inconsistent Outdoor track data in LAACTiC unfortunately gives me pause in just going by that data.

Here is my current top 45, although even in this some give me some pause due to absence, or a worse than expected result. Blocks of runners I consider equal, and "tied"

1 Alabama Doris Lemngole - I feel real good about her winning
2 New Mexico Pamela Kosgei
3 BYU Jane Hedengren - if it comes down to a kick I like the other 2

4 NC State Grace Hartman
Stanford Amy Bunnage - strictly on reputation

6 Stanford Sophia Kennedy
NC State Angelina Napoleon
Clemson Silvia Jelego

9 Arkansas Paityn Noe - strictly on reputation
Arkansas Sydney Thorvaldson - ditto

BYU Jenna Hutchins
BYU Riley Chamberlain
Oregon Diana Cherotich

14 NC State Hannah Gapes - I hope that was a bad race and not a recurring of the injury
Oregon Silan Ayyildiz
Notre Dame Mary Bonner Dalton
Oregon Juliet Cherubet
Florida Judy Chepkoech - some judgement where to put the FL runners based on a Sep result

19 Iowa State Mercyline Kirwa
New Mexico Marion Jepngetich
West Virginia Joy Naukot
Florida Hilda Olemomoi

23 Michigan State Rachel Forsyth - strictly on last year
Northern Arizona Karrie Baloga - absence giving me pause
NC State Bethany Michalak
Notre Dame Amaya Aramini
Florida Desma Chepkoech
Florida Tia Wilson

29 Alabama Brenda Tuwei - unknown this might be too low
North Carolina Vera Sjoberg
Oklahoma State Isca Chelangat
Penn State Florence Caron
Villanova Sadie Sigfstead

34 Notre Dame Siona Chisholm - I think she needs to learn to race better (smarter)
Alabama Cynthia Jemutai
Georgetown Melissa Riggins
Iowa State Maelle Porcher
New Mexico Mercy Kirarei
Northern Arizona Agnes McTighe
Northern Arizona Hayley Burns
Oregon Anika Thompson
Utah Erin Vringer
Washington Mia Cochran
Iowa State Betty Kipkore
Arkansas Josephine Mwaura

I would move Michalak up to the same tier with Gapes, Ayyildiz, etc

Huh?

Huh?