LetsRunSpecial wrote:
If I was a coach I would continue to vote BYU as #1 until they lose. Simulation is based on in season data with the underline assumption that nobody is holding back. In reality, most quality teams are training/racing to peak in November. If you consider the in season races as glorified training runs, winning them could prepare a team better for the postseason, but nothing is guaranteed until the race day. I won’t be surprised to see BYU continuing as the favorite, with NC State and Oregon as the close second heading into the nationals (unless any team stumbles in conference finals or regionals), no matter how we debate on simulation results or individual rankings.
Agree coaches will keep BYU at #1, as they do not go into as much detail as this thread does.
I disagree that teams peak at nats. They try to, and that is the coaching plan. What happens, however, is usually one team runs real well, and 2-3 other top contenders run awful at nats.
So simulation nice, but race will end up different.
Big news from weekend is Hedengren making strong debut as a title contender. For NC State it's Napolèon confirming she will be good in xc, not just steeple. This strengthens both leading contenders.