Let´s compare 2 races where Hocker and Jakob ran on more equal terms:
Hocker´s Millrose PB 3000m and Jakob´s Silesia WR 3000m.
Hocker got drafting for about for 2400m and Jakob for about 1950m so slight advantage to Hocker.
Hocker ran the first 2000m in 4:58.27; Jakob ran in 4:55.21 so about 3 sec faster.
So if Hocker should be the faster runner he should be significantly faster on the last 1000m but as you possibly already know?...... Hocker ran 2:24.91 whereas Jakob ran 2:22.34.
Jakob in peak shape can - on equal terms - run a faster last 1000m and possibly also a faster last 1600m than anyone in history, of course including Hocker.
And that is what "snowflakes" in vain has tried to point out in several posts on this thread.
Do you really think comparing an indoor race in February to an outdoor race in August is "equal terms"?
I will grant you that Jakob is the best time trial runner today. Nobody can match him when he has wavelights and pacers! Championship running is a different beast. Hocker has now defeated Jakob two championship races in a row. Credit to Hocker.
Jakob has never lost a senior 5000 race until this one, where he was injured, and virtually all of them have looked like he's jogging. How does that make Hocker a better championship racer?
Hocker was paced for 1400m when he set his 1500 PB, you're not getting pacing as good as that in any DL race, neither with pacers or wavelights.
We're arguing over what "peak Jakob" is in the 5000, when he has never ran an all out 5000 race. He's never been in a scenario in a 5000 race where he needs to demonstrate why he's the fastest man in history over 3000, 2 miles, 2000, indoor 1500 and mile and a 3:26 runner, because he wins them easily when he's fully fit.
Even when Jakob hasn't been able to train whatsoever he's 4 seconds behind Hocker who's supposedly in his shape of his life, and people are wondering if peak Jakob can beat Hocker???
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Winning times and splits from the last 4 global championships:
Eugene 2022: Jakob Ingebrigtsen (13:09.24) final 3000m: 7:50.25, final 2000m: 5:04.48, final 1000m: 2:23.14, final 800m: 1:52.78, final 600m: 1:23.01, final 400m: 53.93, final 200m: 26.68, final 100m: 13.52
Budapest 2023: Jakob Ingebrigtsen (13:11.30) final 3000m: 7:34.45, final 2000m: 4:56.69, final 1000m: 2:21.07, final 800m: 1:50.65, final 600m: 1:19.90, final 400m: 52.45, final 200m: 26.20, final 100m: 13.25
Paris 2024: Jakob Ingebrigtsen (13:13.66) final 3000m: 7:35.4, final 2000m: 4:55.4, final 1000m: 2:21.1, final 800m: 1:50.x, final 600m: 1:20.x, final 400m: 53.2, final 200m: 26.5, final 100m: 13.2
Tokyo 2025: Cole Hocker (12:58.30) final 3000m: 7:41.75, final 2000m: 5:05.48, final 1000m: 2:25.31, final 800m: 1:54.06, final 600m: 1:23.12, final 400m: 52.62, final 200m: 25.50, final 100m: 12.51
Hocker has a monster finish. But I think Jakob, injury-free and in peak shape, would've gradually turned up the heat with 3-4 laps remaining and running the kick out of Hocker.
^The trend I'm seeing there is Hocker was a second faster over the last 200 than all of Ingebrigtsen's finishes, and in a faster race and probably tougher conditions. The only reason the last 2000m was slower in Tokyo was because Jakob jumped to the front and put the brakes on the field.
It's gonna be tough to beat Hocker in a championship 5k from here on out. He can just sit in the back, relax, and then outkick everyone all the way down to a 12:55, maybe even a 12:50 race. And who's going to volunteer to make the race faster than 12:50? You'd be sabotaging your own chances, just to make sure Hocker doesn't get a medal. Unlike with the women, there just aren't any men who can lead the whole race and run away from the field.
Every race is different, but assuming that "peak" Jakob was racing in Tokyo he would have been leading with 400 to go. So, unless Hocker adjusted his tactics, he would have had to come way back on Jakob-- who probably would have run 52 high to low 53. Not sure Hocker would have caught him. Run a faster last lap, yes. Caught and passed him, not so sure. Also agree Jakob would probably have started cranking it up a bit earlier. Hocker would have had to race differently than he did. That said, Hocker seems every bit as threatening as Jakob has been in a championship 5K now.
Do you really think comparing an indoor race in February to an outdoor race in August is "equal terms"?
I will grant you that Jakob is the best time trial runner today. Nobody can match him when he has wavelights and pacers! Championship running is a different beast. Hocker has now defeated Jakob two championship races in a row. Credit to Hocker.
Jakob has never lost a senior 5000 race until this one, where he was injured, and virtually all of them have looked like he's jogging. How does that make Hocker a better championship racer?
Hocker was paced for 1400m when he set his 1500 PB, you're not getting pacing as good as that in any DL race, neither with pacers or wavelights.
We're arguing over what "peak Jakob" is in the 5000, when he has never ran an all out 5000 race. He's never been in a scenario in a 5000 race where he needs to demonstrate why he's the fastest man in history over 3000, 2 miles, 2000, indoor 1500 and mile and a 3:26 runner, because he wins them easily when he's fully fit.
Even when Jakob hasn't been able to train whatsoever he's 4 seconds behind Hocker who's supposedly in his shape of his life, and people are wondering if peak Jakob can beat Hocker???
Jakob looked like he was jogging in previous years because he practically was. His first 3k in Paris was 8:18. That's more than a minute slower than what he ran just two weeks later!
My main point is comparing the close of Hocker's 5k win to the finishes of Jakob's wins is comparing apples to oranges because the first 3k in Tokyo was so different than in previous years. I think that's a fair thing to say.
We don't know for sure who would have won if Jakob in his 2024 form showed up to Tokyo, and we're not going to get answers from looking at very different prior championships nor from looking at prior time trials.
We do know that Hocker has won his last two championship races against Jakob, and he should get credit for that.
Let´s compare 2 races where Hocker and Jakob ran on more equal terms:
Hocker´s Millrose PB 3000m and Jakob´s Silesia WR 3000m.
Hocker got drafting for about for 2400m and Jakob for about 1950m so slight advantage to Hocker.
Hocker ran the first 2000m in 4:58.27; Jakob ran in 4:55.21 so about 3 sec faster.
So if Hocker should be the faster runner he should be significantly faster on the last 1000m but as you possibly already know?...... Hocker ran 2:24.91 whereas Jakob ran 2:22.34.
Jakob in peak shape can - on equal terms - run a faster last 1000m and possibly also a faster last 1600m than anyone in history, of course including Hocker.
And that is what "snowflakes" in vain has tried to point out in several posts on this thread.
Do you really think comparing an indoor race in February to an outdoor race in August is "equal terms"?
I will grant you that Jakob is the best time trial runner today. Nobody can match him when he has wavelights and pacers! Championship running is a different beast. Hocker has now defeated Jakob two championship races in a row. Credit to Hocker.
Championship running is a different beast, so true! Jakob could never run a championship 5k!
Jakob has never lost a senior 5000 race until this one, where he was injured, and virtually all of them have looked like he's jogging. How does that make Hocker a better championship racer?
Hocker was paced for 1400m when he set his 1500 PB, you're not getting pacing as good as that in any DL race, neither with pacers or wavelights.
We're arguing over what "peak Jakob" is in the 5000, when he has never ran an all out 5000 race. He's never been in a scenario in a 5000 race where he needs to demonstrate why he's the fastest man in history over 3000, 2 miles, 2000, indoor 1500 and mile and a 3:26 runner, because he wins them easily when he's fully fit.
Even when Jakob hasn't been able to train whatsoever he's 4 seconds behind Hocker who's supposedly in his shape of his life, and people are wondering if peak Jakob can beat Hocker???
Jakob looked like he was jogging in previous years because he practically was. His first 3k in Paris was 8:18. That's more than a minute slower than what he ran just two weeks later!
My main point is comparing the close of Hocker's 5k win to the finishes of Jakob's wins is comparing apples to oranges because the first 3k in Tokyo was so different than in previous years. I think that's a fair thing to say.
We don't know for sure who would have won if Jakob in his 2024 form showed up to Tokyo, and we're not going to get answers from looking at very different prior championships nor from looking at prior time trials.
We do know that Hocker has won his last two championship races against Jakob, and he should get credit for that.
I'm pretty sure we can tell who would win if Jakob with no training whatsoever just ran 4 seconds slower than Hocker who's in the best shape of his life.
Winning times and splits from the last 4 global championships:
Eugene 2022: Jakob Ingebrigtsen (13:09.24) final 3000m: 7:50.25, final 2000m: 5:04.48, final 1000m: 2:23.14, final 800m: 1:52.78, final 600m: 1:23.01, final 400m: 53.93, final 200m: 26.68, final 100m: 13.52
Budapest 2023: Jakob Ingebrigtsen (13:11.30) final 3000m: 7:34.45, final 2000m: 4:56.69, final 1000m: 2:21.07, final 800m: 1:50.65, final 600m: 1:19.90, final 400m: 52.45, final 200m: 26.20, final 100m: 13.25
Paris 2024: Jakob Ingebrigtsen (13:13.66) final 3000m: 7:35.4, final 2000m: 4:55.4, final 1000m: 2:21.1, final 800m: 1:50.x, final 600m: 1:20.x, final 400m: 53.2, final 200m: 26.5, final 100m: 13.2
Tokyo 2025: Cole Hocker (12:58.30) final 3000m: 7:41.75, final 2000m: 5:05.48, final 1000m: 2:25.31, final 800m: 1:54.06, final 600m: 1:23.12, final 400m: 52.62, final 200m: 25.50, final 100m: 12.51
Hocker has a monster finish. But I think Jakob, injury-free and in peak shape, would've gradually turned up the heat with 3-4 laps remaining and running the kick out of Hocker.
^The trend I'm seeing there is Hocker was a second faster over the last 200 than all of Ingebrigtsen's finishes, and in a faster race and probably tougher conditions. The only reason the last 2000m was slower in Tokyo was because Jakob jumped to the front and put the brakes on the field.
It's gonna be tough to beat Hocker in a championship 5k from here on out. He can just sit in the back, relax, and then outkick everyone all the way down to a 12:55, maybe even a 12:50 race. And who's going to volunteer to make the race faster than 12:50? You'd be sabotaging your own chances, just to make sure Hocker doesn't get a medal. Unlike with the women, there just aren't any men who can lead the whole race and run away from the field.
I can’t believe how many people just completely reject the fact that a last mile burn up is different than a 400m kick no matter how fast the actual race is. It’s like 7 people in this thread were lobotomized all at once. There were 12 guys bunched up at the bell in this race. That has never and will never happen when Jakob is healthy. How come so many fewer guys were in contention at the bell in previous years despite the races being slower overall? Was the field just twice as good in Tokyo?
Jakob has never lost a senior 5000 race until this one, where he was injured, and virtually all of them have looked like he's jogging. How does that make Hocker a better championship racer?
Hocker was paced for 1400m when he set his 1500 PB, you're not getting pacing as good as that in any DL race, neither with pacers or wavelights.
We're arguing over what "peak Jakob" is in the 5000, when he has never ran an all out 5000 race. He's never been in a scenario in a 5000 race where he needs to demonstrate why he's the fastest man in history over 3000, 2 miles, 2000, indoor 1500 and mile and a 3:26 runner, because he wins them easily when he's fully fit.
Even when Jakob hasn't been able to train whatsoever he's 4 seconds behind Hocker who's supposedly in his shape of his life, and people are wondering if peak Jakob can beat Hocker???
Jakob looked like he was jogging in previous years because he practically was. His first 3k in Paris was 8:18. That's more than a minute slower than what he ran just two weeks later!
My main point is comparing the close of Hocker's 5k win to the finishes of Jakob's wins is comparing apples to oranges because the first 3k in Tokyo was so different than in previous years. I think that's a fair thing to say.
We don't know for sure who would have won if Jakob in his 2024 form showed up to Tokyo, and we're not going to get answers from looking at very different prior championships nor from looking at prior time trials.
We do know that Hocker has won his last two championship races against Jakob, and he should get credit for that.
How in the world should he get credit for beating him this year? Should everyone who beat Hocker in the 2022 trials get credit for beating him? Of course not, he was injured leading up to that race.
Im not saying this win should have an asterisk, but beating this version of Jakob is hardly an accomplishment for a top level runner and should not be used as a data point to compare the two. He can get credit for beating everyone else in the field, including the 10k champ and several 12:40 guys
LOL, I'm not so sure. The first 3k of a race impacts the last 2k. Comparing Hocker's close in Tokyo to Jakob's finishes in Budapest and Paris is an apples-to-oranges comparison given that the first 3k in Tokyo was substantially faster than the first 3k in each of the previous two years. We don't know what 2024 Jakob would have done after a 7:52 first 3k.
Hopefully, both guys bring their A game to Beijing in 2027, and we can see how they stack up.
of course we know, a 7:52 is jogging for peak Jakob. Hocker’s final 2000 was 5:06. Jakob’s final 2000 in Florence was 5:02 in a 12:48 race. Do you know his first 3000? 7:46. That was nearly 4 years ago. I’d be terrified of a fast race with Jakob in the field. It’s why no one does it when he is healthy.
I don’t believe Hocker is doping, but when there are people proposing that someone can go from being spit out the back with 3 laps to go at USAs to EASILY torching Farah and Bekele and Lagat and Ingebrigtsen in a 5k, I don’t blame people for speculating.
The more rational position is obviously he didn’t make the single most suspicious one-year jump in ability ever recorded
I don’t think Hocker’s improvement is unreasonable or suspicious. He ran 3:31 just after his 20th birthday and closed a 7:46 3k in 12 flat for the last 100 as a teenager, he always had the talent and speed for the 5k. I mean the guy won footlocker and ran 1:50 in high school running 30 miles a week, just ridiculous talent.
However, he mentioned in 2024 shifting his training from 800/1500 to 1500/5k. He ran 12:58 in 2024 but ran poorly at the Olympic trials. This year he continued to make aerobic progress and ran a 7:23 3k, which is faster than Farah, Bekele, or Lagat ever ran. (Albeit they all could’ve run that fast with the technological advances of today’s era)
Hocker is approaching the 5k from the speed side of things, but he’s clearly an all time great 3k talent and if he focuses on it in his peak next year I believe he could break 7:20.
I don’t think it is either, but I don’t think he would beat Bekele and it “wouldn’t even be close.” He was perfectly healthy both years and went from losing to Sean McGorty to beating Bekele easily?
How in the world should he get credit for beating him this year? Should everyone who beat Hocker in the 2022 trials get credit for beating him? Of course not, he was injured leading up to that race.
Im not saying this win should have an asterisk, but beating this version of Jakob is hardly an accomplishment for a top level runner and should not be used as a data point to compare the two. He can get credit for beating everyone else in the field, including the 10k champ and several 12:40 guys
Hocker gets credit for winning because he brought his A game to Tokyo. He planned his season well, didn't overdo it in training, and steadily built his fitness so he could deliver his best performance when it mattered most. Then he executed his race strategy, put himself in a position to win, and deployed his lethal kick to cross the finish line first.
LOL, I'm not so sure. The first 3k of a race impacts the last 2k. Comparing Hocker's close in Tokyo to Jakob's finishes in Budapest and Paris is an apples-to-oranges comparison given that the first 3k in Tokyo was substantially faster than the first 3k in each of the previous two years. We don't know what 2024 Jakob would have done after a 7:52 first 3k.
Hopefully, both guys bring their A game to Beijing in 2027, and we can see how they stack up.
of course we know, a 7:52 is jogging for peak Jakob. Hocker’s final 2000 was 5:06. Jakob’s final 2000 in Florence was 5:02 in a 12:48 race. Do you know his first 3000? 7:46. That was nearly 4 years ago. I’d be terrified of a fast race with Jakob in the field. It’s why no one does it when he is healthy.
Jakob looked like he was jogging in previous years because he practically was. His first 3k in Paris was 8:18. That's more than a minute slower than what he ran just two weeks later!
My main point is comparing the close of Hocker's 5k win to the finishes of Jakob's wins is comparing apples to oranges because the first 3k in Tokyo was so different than in previous years. I think that's a fair thing to say.
We don't know for sure who would have won if Jakob in his 2024 form showed up to Tokyo, and we're not going to get answers from looking at very different prior championships nor from looking at prior time trials.
We do know that Hocker has won his last two championship races against Jakob, and he should get credit for that.
I'm pretty sure we can tell who would win if Jakob with no training whatsoever just ran 4 seconds slower than Hocker who's in the best shape of his life.
I'm pretty sure we can tell who would win if Jakob with no training whatsoever just ran 4 seconds slower than Hocker who's in the best shape of his life.
Why are you ignoring the "with zero training" part? Are you unaware that runners run faster when they're able to train?
The "zero training" part is false. I saw lots of threads here in the weeks leading up to Tokyo in which posters expressed excitement about Jakob's training.
How in the world should he get credit for beating him this year? Should everyone who beat Hocker in the 2022 trials get credit for beating him? Of course not, he was injured leading up to that race.
Im not saying this win should have an asterisk, but beating this version of Jakob is hardly an accomplishment for a top level runner and should not be used as a data point to compare the two. He can get credit for beating everyone else in the field, including the 10k champ and several 12:40 guys
Hocker gets credit for winning because he brought his A game to Tokyo. He planned his season well, didn't overdo it in training, and steadily built his fitness so he could deliver his best performance when it mattered most. Then he executed his race strategy, put himself in a position to win, and deployed his lethal kick to cross the finish line first.
Of course he does, and Jakob should get full credit as well for being able to do the same thing, three years in a row in the 5000m. It's why many believe that he would have won today.
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