I hope you're right, but if Jakob is in 12:55, 3:32 shape, while still far from his peak, he would definitely be a contender. I think it's closer to 13:10ish and 3:34 atm for him.
I just don’t understand why you’d think that. Of the 15 guys to qualify for the 5k final besides Jakob, there are 3 with 13:01/13:02 season’s bests and 12 with sub-13 SBs. Why would Jakob only be at 13:10? In the 1500, everyone who beat him has run 3:32 or faster this season, and he beat some guys with 3:32/3:33 SBs - so why only 3:34? Especially considering he ran the last 1K/2K of the 5k heat in 2:23/4:58.
Times have progressed to the point where if you’re in 3:34/13:10 shape you’re not remotely competitive at the WC level, and even if you’re in 3:32/12:55 shape you can be just another guy struggling to make the 5k final.
For the 1500m, while he didn't have optimal pacing in that 3:37, he's still paced the whole way, so I think he could've run about 3 secs faster. 5 secs seems to be a stretch for me.
For the 5k, I concede he may be better than 13:10, but not sure about 13:00, definitely not 12:55. He's already laboring, while that was not an all-out effort, but should be 90%+. With even pacing and better weather I would have him at somewhere between 13:00-13:10 right now.
How many of them have a faster last lap? I think that may be a more relevant metric but maybe I'm wrong and someone takes it out hard. Nevertheless I like Cole's chances because his 7:23 show pretty good strength.
are the guys that seem to be peaking and can finish
fisher seems just past peak
guess its like a 1305 race
an a game african figures as well
guess jimmy g has the most visible glow
might be looking at double gold for Jimmy G
The heat and the way he's structured his season looks like hes timed his peak perfectly.
plus hes got a couple countrymen he might be able to talk into some tactics to keep the race from going too fast too early
This isn’t cycling, there won’t be any team tactics. Schrub has his own Euro titles (XC, road) and track medals (5000/10000). He outkicked Gressier at the french championships about a month ago, he’s not there to pace him.
Same for Daguinos, zero chance
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How many of them have a faster last lap? I think that may be a more relevant metric but maybe I'm wrong and someone takes it out hard. Nevertheless I like Cole's chances because his 7:23 show pretty good strength.
7:23 shows tremendous strength but of course that was 7.5 months ago, so it is not entirely clear how relevant it is now. It is a data point, but it seems rather remote now.
How many of them have a faster last lap? I think that may be a more relevant metric but maybe I'm wrong and someone takes it out hard. Nevertheless I like Cole's chances because his 7:23 show pretty good strength.
Depends on the pace. In a 13:40 race? Not many. In a 13:10 race? Probably most of them.
Hocker’s 12:57 two weeks after that 7:23 shows he falls off after 3k. He has good strength for a 1500m runner, but 12:57 isn’t getting the job done in a strength test against legitimate 5000m specialists.
Hocker, Mehary, Gressier, Kimeli look strong, while Fisher and Young were very good indoors and in July. Depends on the type of race who wins, but these things have gone around 13:10 almost every time for a long time with a 54 close. That suits Hocker, and Mehary is almost guaranteed to medal. The third could be any of the remaining four. I give it to Gressier, because he has shown the best form at the end of the season when it counts.
Hocker, Mehary, Gressier, Kimeli look strong, while Fisher and Young were very good indoors and in July. Depends on the type of race who wins, but these things have gone around 13:10 almost every time for a long time with a 54 close. That suits Hocker, and Mehary is almost guaranteed to medal. The third could be any of the remaining four. I give it to Gressier, because he has shown the best form at the end of the season when it counts.
Good analysis. I'm thinking it will go out slow, suiting Hocker, but that the last mile will be crazy fast (4:00), making it more difficult for Hocker to use his formidable kick last lap. If it's a 13:20/13:40 type race (possible) I think Hocker has the best chance, but he's not a guarantee for the win ....most of the finalists have a chance to create a big upset. Making predictions is notoriously difficult, especially in this era with so many quality athletes.
What about Jakob in all of this? Will he medal? Unlikely on current form.....but not impossible.....
...but would be updating my will and purchasing life insurance after placing that bet. There's no one with super high odds so it's a good question. Wish the Sportsbook would open up betting for the 5K - I haven't been able to find one that has it, and would bet on whoever they're putting as the underdogs
What’s the last distance track final with no strong favorite for even a medal? Hocker leads with ~65% odds even with the fd vig, easily the lowest of the games
I don't think he's close to the favorite, but I do like the +3300 odds for George Mills...if I wasn't abroad I'd put $10 on that one
1.Hocker: looked horrifically comfortable in the heat, despite its being much faster than the other one, will run on pure hate. Assuming he's in shape tomorrow (big if), he should have the best kick for anything above 13:10. Would still be a great threat in the range of 13:00-13:10. Not sure how he holds up in sub-13, but overall wouldn't be surprised to see him shock the world once again since Paris.
2.Gressier: looked comically comfortable in the heat, has a great kick and is seemingly in great shape. Will he pull off the double golds since Mo in Rio? We must wait see and see.
3.Mills: looked solid, the PBs (3:28, 12;46) suggest he would be a factor, be it fast or slow, While hardware is lacking. he did look solid in the heat, maybe a dark horse?
That said, it's pretty much an open race, so 99.9999999% I would be wrong. lol
Edit: Ah, originally I had Young for Bronze, but he looked terrible in the heat, though look could be deceiving, like Laros looked the best in the semi, but we know what happened in the final.
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I'm from Belgium but I never thought Kimeli could be a medal contender. He has a 12:56 PR.
I was rooting for Jakob and Laros who are out of the picture now.
We have Belgians John Heymans (his YouTube channel is OK by the way) who didn't make the final. And of course Kimeli. With all the slow races with quick last rounds we've seen so far, to my suprise Kimeli now is considered a medal contender !
I'm from Belgium but I never thought Kimeli could be a medal contender. He has a 12:56 PR.
I was rooting for Jakob and Laros who are out of the picture now.
We have Belgians John Heymans (his YouTube channel is OK by the way) who didn't make the final. And of course Kimeli. With all the slow races with quick last rounds we've seen so far, to my suprise Kimeli now is considered a medal contender !
Yeah, Kimeli's PR surprised me, given how he looked in the heat. And it isn't like he hasn't tried except the 3:36 1500m (which was set in 2018) , because he has already been in the scene since 2011.