Last year, Hocker was run off the track in the USA 5000m, yet went on to win Olympic gold in the 1500m in 3:27.65. This year, he won the USA 5000m. He has shown far greater endurance or aerobic strength.
13:08 race with a fast last mile as his fifth race of the week vs. 13:26 with a fast last 400 as his 3rd race of the week are very different scenarios. He has basically the same exact SB in the 5000 as last year, and got dropped in his only other 5000 of the outdoor season. The only thing that suggests far greater aerobic strength is the 3000 at Millrose vs. 8:05 for two miles in 2024
Yes, now Hocker is more or less at the same level as Nordas. You write in your, by all means, interesting paper that Nordas has never closed faster than 12.85. In DL Silesia 12.8 and in Pfungstadt (3:30.26 last 400 53.1) 12.7. Nordas is actually getting better and better this season.
So, I looked at your docs and I don't see any new information, any new insight on revolutionary training or crazy splits that Hocker would be hitting in his prep to substantiate the "quietly getting in WR shape"?
It's just stats from the last few years and parts of 2025. In 2025, Hocker didn't do anything remarkable: when he PRd, others PRd better. When he raced, he got beat every single time. He did ok, but not great.
I'm not saying Hocker is in bad shape right now, or that he doesn't have a chance at world's - he's definitely a contender, but your research has very little predictive value.
Can we stop being this dumb, you really just compared the Olympic champ to nathan green. By no means is nathan green a bad athlete but this is the damn olympic champ we are talking about
Yes, now Hocker is more or less at the same level as Nordas. You write in your, by all means, interesting paper that Nordas has never closed faster than 12.85. In DL Silesia 12.8 and in Pfungstadt (3:30.26 last 400 53.1) 12.7. Nordas is actually getting better and better this season.
That's not quite accurate. The omega splits for Nordas list a 12.8 because they only go out to the tenth. Going frame by frame it's like 12.87 (Give or take a couple 100ths). The race in Pfungstadt was closed in 53.5 and no accurate 100m splits can be seen from any video that I've seen. Nordas may or may not be fitter than 2023, but far from men like Hocker and Laros right now.
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Unless Jakob or Laros chooses to push the pace, the winning time will be a 3:30.x with more people than there are medals available splitting 50.x on the last lap, might even see someone split a 49.x
Yeah there’s NO way anyone is splitting 49.x, maybe in a 3:40+ race but definitely not in a 3:30 race.
The 1500 is the new 800, all but one or maybe two of the guys blocked in at the bell will already have lost their chance (not everyone gets out on the last lap if they're in that position, we only remember well the ones that does, a form of success bias). I predict major havoc on the second to last lap, elbows, pushing, tripping and general chaos. Money back odds on at least one runner being disqualified for roughing, and one for stepping (probably not deliberate, but still) inside the rail.
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I haven't read through all the postings on this subject yet, so maybe this is a repeat of what someone else said. But is a 1500 final necessarily going to be fast? Let's ask that of Centro in regard to his Rio gold! Being in WR shape is exciting, but it could mean little in a kickers' race.
AND WE ARE TALKING ABOUT TOKYO. Like potentially HOT. Like too HOT, or even too warm, to expect a truly fast time. It is not possible to know the weather conditions now, but posturing about WRs is, at best, wishful thinking or speculating what a perfect-conditions race would entail. The conditions WON'T be ideal, and it is a race where there very well will not be a WR. "Hope springs eternal", sure, but I hope a 3:57 miler has the best race of his life and wins in a WR. Hope leads a lot of people down the wrong path at the betting window.
Interesting post but as also - as already pointed out by several posters and admitted by yourself - rather biased towards Hocker and the other Americans.
Firstly: When you hang much of your argumentation up on numbers it is undermining if your numbers are wrong.
My Norwegian friend Kaare has given you an example regarding Nordas.
I will give you one example about Jakob (since I recently wrote about his finishing ability on another thread):
In the 1500m semifinal in 2023 in Budapest he ran 12:47 in the last 100m so some faster than the 12:85 you postulated in your word document. In the same race he ran 25:44 last 200m, 38:34 last 300, around 51 high (the race analysis is wrong about his split time at 1100m which about 1 seconds too slow and 1:48.10 last 800m; the race time 3:24.99).
I will comment on your rankings in some later posts.
Interesting post but as also - as already pointed out by several posters and admitted by yourself - rather biased towards Hocker and the other Americans.
Firstly: When you hang much of your argumentation up on numbers it is undermining if your numbers are wrong.
My Norwegian friend Kaare has given you an example regarding Nordas.
I will give you one example about Jakob (since I recently wrote about his finishing ability on another thread):
In the 1500m semifinal in 2023 in Budapest he ran 12:47 in the last 100m so some faster than the 12:85 you postulated in your word document. In the same race he ran 25:44 last 200m, 38:34 last 300, around 51 high (the race analysis is wrong about his split time at 1100m which about 1 seconds too slow and 1:48.10 last 800m; the race time 3:24.99).
I will comment on your rankings in some later posts.
I haven't read through all the postings on this subject yet, so maybe this is a repeat of what someone else said. But is a 1500 final necessarily going to be fast? Let's ask that of Centro in regard to his Rio gold! Being in WR shape is exciting, but it could mean little in a kickers' race.
AND WE ARE TALKING ABOUT TOKYO. Like potentially HOT. Like too HOT, or even too warm, to expect a truly fast time. It is not possible to know the weather conditions now, but posturing about WRs is, at best, wishful thinking or speculating what a perfect-conditions race would entail. The conditions WON'T be ideal, and it is a race where there very well will not be a WR. "Hope springs eternal", sure, but I hope a 3:57 miler has the best race of his life and wins in a WR. Hope leads a lot of people down the wrong path at the betting window.
It was HOT when Jakob broke the Olympic record in OG Tokyo in 2021.
I haven't read through all the postings on this subject yet, so maybe this is a repeat of what someone else said. But is a 1500 final necessarily going to be fast? Let's ask that of Centro in regard to his Rio gold! Being in WR shape is exciting, but it could mean little in a kickers' race.
Yes and no. That was the era of Asbel Kiprop's dominance, who didn't necessary like to take it out from the front in champ races, and didn't like to be in the middle because of his abnormally long legs and different cadence (increased risk of being tripped/falling). The whole field benefitted (at least theoretically) from, when they saw hid wanted to start at the back again, going extremelly slow and neutralize his kick. Had he been a sharper tool in the shed he would have moved to the front and picked it up already on the second backstretch.