So then how can you take any predictions in this thread seriously? You’ve just admitted it’s about getting it right at worlds, that’s really vague
You evaluate how the guys look going into the race and their strengths/weaknesses. This year is a little different because Worlds is last. Kerr and Hocker similar to last year are in hibernation but have put together solid performances and we know they peak well. Last year only Jakob really impressed in Monaco and that’s why it was a little surprising Yared did bounce back for a medal. His USAs was pretty strong and he had the second best PB (3:43 mile) in the field. This year Laros has looked really good in a few style of races and at 800/5000. If he runs in Zurich, we’ll still have the mystery of Kerr/Hocker/Jakob but if he definitively beats Nuguse, Koech, Habz and the Cheruiyots it’s more akin to Jakobs position going in last year. And that’s without being reliant on a provably bad frontrunning tactic.
Youre analysis would make more sense if he raced like Jakob -- TT style races right from the gun.
That's how JI won going in, not how Laros has won.
You are now seeing he has ability to win in a number of different ways/different races, this was talked about in the thread after Pre
The kick, the kick and nothing but the kick. It is'nt like that. When Nordas got his medal in 2023, it was not the kick. He is a very slow runner. It always depends on what you got left in the tank. A nice kick at 3:33 and then no kick at 3:31. We could go on like this. I would love to see Laros kick in a 3:27-race. BTW. Nordas ran 53,0 at his last lap in Pfungstadt some days ago 3:30.26. And approx 25.7 at the last 200. Just now Laros is the favorite. But we might do some adjustments after the DL-finale at Friday. The kick?
You’re living in the past. All sorts of runners are now summoning big kicks off 3:28-3:31 races. How you can finish matters. You better be in the front/dictating the race if you don’t have the kick. You saw even in Silesia, Nordas had tons left and still got beat by Tim who had run way worse positionally. It was great self-awareness by Nordas to NOT trust the race was about who had more left as he used to say.
i agree with this however, and i think Laros now is in that territory, not just banging in fast finishes in slow races. now sub 55 last lap is jogging for Laros.
he just needs to be close to the front and move slightly earlier than kerr/hocker which he can do, say 300 to go vs 150 to go
i wouldn’t take anything away from Silesia that race was a waste of time
nordas suffers because he needs the perfect race for him to succeed. he finishes like a truck but his positioning at 1000m is always a problem. think of a race hes not absolutely scrambling to move with 500m to go, then he has to navigate traffic and kick again
The kick, the kick and nothing but the kick. It is'nt like that. When Nordas got his medal in 2023, it was not the kick. He is a very slow runner. It always depends on what you got left in the tank. A nice kick at 3:33 and then no kick at 3:31. We could go on like this. I would love to see Laros kick in a 3:27-race. BTW. Nordas ran 53,0 at his last lap in Pfungstadt some days ago 3:30.26. And approx 25.7 at the last 200. Just now Laros is the favorite. But we might do some adjustments after the DL-finale at Friday. The kick?
You’re living in the past. All sorts of runners are now summoning big kicks off 3:28-3:31 races. How you can finish matters. You better be in the front/dictating the race if you don’t have the kick. You saw even in Silesia, Nordas had tons left and still got beat by Tim who had run way worse positionally. It was great self-awareness by Nordas to NOT trust the race was about who had more left as he used to say.
Whether I am living in the past or not is not relevant. Well, Nordas' "kick" in 2023 was the fastest in that race 12:85 and faster than Hockers 13.0 in 2024. Sure how you finish matters. But again. The faster one runs a 1500 the fewer - even though they are "great kickers" - are able to finish strong. Worldleading Habz finished strong in Paris when he ran 3:27.49, 13.1 at the last 100. A kick?
Is being the favorite a kiss of death? Tim C (2019) was the last favorite to win an outdoor 1500M world/Olympics . What Laros has in his favour is the fact he'd be a new champion which seems to have been the trend of late.
Whether I am living in the past or not is not relevant. Well, Nordas' "kick" in 2023 was the fastest in that race 12:85 and faster than Hockers 13.0 in 2024. Sure how you finish matters. But again. The faster one runs a 1500 the fewer - even though they are "great kickers" - are able to finish strong. Worldleading Habz finished strong in Paris when he ran 3:27.49, 13.1 at the last 100. A kick?
It is relevant because you are referring to the near all-out races of the past in championship finals. But maybe now that Jakob seems healthy, we will get another fast one. But if it's a 3:30+ race kick and tactics/positioning will matter, not some "who has the least lactic" calculus. That's all I was saying.
Is being the favorite a kiss of death? Tim C (2019) was the last favorite to win an outdoor 1500M world/Olympics . What Laros has in his favour is the fact he'd be a new champion which seems to have been the trend of late.
I think Laros might be the favorite of LetsRun or diehard fans, but I suspect he'd be the third betting favorite at best.
Laros is not the favorite to test positive, that's Phanuel Koech. I'll give Laros 3rd most likely though.
Hell, considering the way things have been going since ‘87, Koech has likely already tested positive and officials are looking the other way. For the good of the sport. Because muh poor Africans.
And two weeks before that they were saying Phanuel Kipkosgei KOECH was a good choice to win he beat Josh Kerr. I guess no one is talking about the Americans anymore.
I agree, as long as he avoids tactical mistakes (which can easily happen in a big championship with such a deep field), he’s my pick for the win. He’s got the best kick in the field (ahead of Hocker and Kerr in my opinion), and the only way to take the sting out of it would be a race going out at 3:27 low/mid pace — which simply won’t happen without Jakob or even with a slightly diminished Jakob. He doesn’t need to make the race, since he’s the best kicker. He’s the favorite.
There are three people who matched his kick at the US trials (mid 12 last 100 with 53 second last laps in a 3:30 race). I wouldn’t place his kick ahead of any of them, I believe they are all even for now.
I think he’ll make those "three people who matched his kick at the US trials" look foolish in exactly 20 days