Things we learned from my son who's running D1. Your son's times high school times are similar.
1. Got into an elite P4 conference school with a 10% acceptance rate based on academics. Has times that are as fast or faster than the bottom 1/3 of the team in his events with current roster members (not their high school times, their college times). It's not a good school in terms of running but it fit what he was looking for academically. Coach wouldn't even return his call. No explanation, no communication, etc. He would have ran for free. The issue is you don't get to know the coaches need. Is the roster full? Do they have an elite recruit in that event? We will never know.
2. Several of the schools he got into for academics, were elite running programs- ND, Washington, etc. He would never be able to sniff their track team. Coming to this realization is important. The first to walk on is the first to get cut even if he did make the team. He always used the rule that he wanted to go to the best academic school. When he realized his competitive running career might be over that bothered him because it's something he's obviously passionate about.
3. His late realization of wanting to run sabotaged him. There are a lot of good schools out there and we left some off the table. Places he would have gone to were past their admissions times (the coach can get around this, but it's a pain). We hadn't developed a relationship with coaches at these schools, etc. He focused on super high academic places and that hurt him.
4. At the end of the season, low end power 4 schools will take some guys with similar times to your sons, and it's frustrating. Places we contacted that wouldn't return our calls took people with similar times. My presumption is that they have a relationship with their high school coach or have insider knowledge about that athlete that makes them comfortable not looking at similar athletes. May be that happens less often now with roster changes and revenue sharing.
5. He will be much happier going to a place he's wanted. Once we found his current spot with a coach who was excited about him and it was at a good school, the choice seemed obvious. There were options to wait around to hear from other places, but that seemed silly.
6. Mileage matters- If your son is getting those times off 80 mpw that's an issue. There has to be some meat on the bone for the college coaches to improve on. Already hitting weights and 80 mpw, then the coach isn't going to be able to improve on much via training. Those times on 30 mpw, man there is going to be a lot of improvement.
7. Mid majors- Big East, Patriot league, etc. are too often overlooked. I expect the Big East to become much more competitive in track. They don't have to revenue share and fund a football team. I anticipate that being a sea change for a lot of their programs.
8. Elite- This is a dangerous trap. Is it an elite academic school? Is it an elite running program? Elite should be defined as the place that checks the most boxes for the following: college location, good academics in field of study, helps you accomplish your career goes, allows you to run competitively, give you good training, etc. Elite should be defined by what experience is going to give your child to best opportunity to fulfill their goals in life.
9. You have time. A lot of recruiting occurs after spring track. I would say you are in trouble if you don't have some options solidifying around mid June of senior year.
10 Finally, the people around here are d-bags. They basically tell you that your kids time suck if you're not Cole Hocker or Simeon Birnbaum. The times your son has today are simply due to super shoes and he is nothing like the 4:15s of yesteryear, etc. There is no way they can find a spot due to roster cuts and internationals enrolling in college. All this is very true. It may not work out as the landscape is chaning, but it's worth trying and failing rather than not trying at all. You would think people in competitive running would get that. I found most of the advice here was terrible.- May be even mine. Your mileage may vary. Best of luck. Come back and let us know how it works out.