2025 D3 XC Nationals Predictions

Didn't realize that Cornell got a training partner to transfer in from Wyoming for Isaac. Smart move by Jerry. Looks like they could have two top ten guys this year. If he can keep riding the transfer train he'll build quite a group in Mount. Vernon. He learned from the best in college, so it won't be long!

Nah, I fully support Mo's ability to come and better himself in a substantially superior country. Heck, I'd even advise him to stay here. It's just a little silly for him to fulfill himself by beating up on the junior NCAA circuit. But hey, I understand it. Probably a lot easier that way.

fun fact Bati has never won an ncaa d3 title and only has 2 all american accolades

So is it correct that all meets on the weekend of Sep 19-21 are counted? I'd appreciate if someone could link a manual that says that

Ask your coach. If a coach, read your email.

runnerguy 2, based on your detailed analyses on this thread and others. I would expect you to know that

I am a washed up D3 alum. Can't do either of those things.

Straight from the Pre-Championships manual. Feel free to argue your weird interpretations just like you tried with track seedings.

Team At-Large Selection
The selection criteria below will be considered to select the at-large teams.
● Regional performance/place; Regional performance/place is the primary piece of the criteria, as a team cannot
be selected to the championships over a team it finished behind at its respective regional.
● Head-to-head competition with teams already in the championships field and other potential at-large
teams using late-season performance comparisons; late-season performance (a team’s meet that
occurs on or after Sept. 19, including regionals) that meets the following criteria will be used during the
selection process:
- A team runs at least five of its student-athletes who will compete for their institution at regionals.
- The race length must be at least 5 kilometers for the women, and 7 kilometers for the men.
- The meet must be scored in accordance with the scoring procedures in the NCAA Cross Country and
Track and Field Rules Book.
● Common opponents using late-season performance comparisons;
● Regional meet results — point gap for place of a team’s finish and total team score versus the team that placed
ahead of it and behind it; and
● Late-season meet results — point gap for place of a team’s finish versus the team that placed ahead of and
behind it.

How is September 19 considered late season?

Don’t think I’ve ever posted in a D3 track thread but huge thanks for this

Not really sure what the point is of spreading misinformation on this thread—especially since you clearly have some real insight into the program—but Berman has historically admitted international students on the basis of athletic merit. There is also no one by the name of Sidd Finch on the staff. (Trust me on that one … not to give too much away, but I would know).

I understand partial anonymization, but please try to avoid blatant misinformation.

And go BXC!

Bold Prediction: Emerson qualifies for nationals just barely, then finishes top 12 in true Drancher Dozen fashion.

LAX vs Wartburg at Augustana. LAX looks beatable as Wartburg loses to them by 9 pts. It appears that Wartburg started slow with their scoring 5 at 116 pts at the mile marker to LAX's 74. By 4k it was LAX's 49 pts to Wartburg's 88. LAX moved a little to 5.6k scoring 43 to Wartburg's 89, but Wartburg came on to finish with 68 pts to LAX's 59. Those 6th and 7th guys now really becomes a factor as if one of the normal scoring 5 has a bad day, it'll depend on these guys to come through. This is what makes XC exciting as a team race.
We'll see what the next month in training holds, but Nats looks to be in a fight now. I hope everyone stays healthy as it should be exiciting to watch.

Interregional Take-aways

This thread is dead, so gonna try to revive it.

1. UWL is not going to run away with nationals. Wartburg was a close 2nd, 12 points off at Augie. UWL's 23:41 avg at Joe Piane had me thinking nationals was a foregone conclusion. UWL is very beatable. Definitely some guys I expected more out of from UWL. I don't expect either team to be challenged too much the rest of the season unlike in years' past, so not too much more info on this head-to-head prior to nationals.

2. Leblond is the favorite for nationals. He's the only guy yet to lose to any D3 comp, had an impressive 6th at Paul Short, and now was a runaway winner in Conn with decent comp. I had G. Matthai as the favorite after Joe Piane, and his historical wins against Leblond, but he was a clear 2nd at Augie to vanWestrienen. Leblond has an historical advantage in xc over vanWestrienen with 3 AAs compared to Isaac's 0. Don't sleep on Isaac though because he looked phenomenal at Augie, even after an early-season loss to Hammerand.

Bati is the big dark horse, and we probably won't know much about him until the start line at nationals. I expect Leblond, Bati, Isaac and G. Matthai to be competing for the individual title in what really should be anybody's race, but Leblond has been the best thus far.

3. Shifting to Conn teams, JHU was a 15 point winner. They also had the best 1-5 avg across Augie and Conn (two fast courses, but ofc Leblond brings that down a lot). Dark horse come nationals. Deserve their #3 ranking for now.

4. Tufts, Geneseo, NYU, Williams and MIT are all fairly tight. Should be interesting East, Niagara and Mideast title races when you throw in RPI's 3rd from Augie, and expect all to compete for podium. I like Geneseo to emerge from the rest because of their historical ability to peak.

5. Haverford revives themselves from a terrible PS performance. Not too far off Swarthmore at Rowan, and that should be your two teams battling for the annual Metro region singular bid. Haverford seeks to get back to the national meet after losing their 31-year streak last year. Swarthmore tries to make it to nationals for the first time.

6. End of an era??: North Central was 5th at Augie, Pomona was 8th and Whitewater 12th. NCC lost to RPI and UChicago. Quite possibly the first time those teams beat NCC.

7. Also want to shoutout teams that improve a ton from years past. Big ups to WIAC teams Platteville and Stevens Point for their 6-7 finish at Augie, these teams definitely in that top 5-10 hunt.

*** The only person to beat Bati in any cross country race over the past two seasons was Patzka at nationals. While Mo hasn’t raced the same level of competition as other contenders, he also hasn’t even really been challenged the last two years except at the national meet.

That lack of competition may hurt him, or he might get overlooked. He seemed to jog 7k before easily gapping a couple all Americans in earlier races.

Lax really disappointed. Either had a bad day or ND corse is sus. Also are NCC frauds? Or are RPI and Chicago good?

You think he jogged his previous races for 7K? What makes you think that? He had to work at BluGold to break the pack. He isn't someone to lead a race by nature. He clearly has the strength to drop most of the country, but I think it is silly to say he is jogging.