Speed-wise, he's the slowest out of the big four. Strength-wise, everybody is catching up. Hocker just shocked the world with an indoor 7:23 in his only serious attempt. He could definitely get to around 7:20 outdoors, and Kerr and Nuguse may be even faster, so Jakob's only edge over his competitors is going out of window. Not to mention Kessler and Laros getting better and better.
I don't see how he would win another world title tbf.
Agreed but going by all the down votes his fanatical fanbase are still very much delulu.
Speed-wise, he's the slowest out of the big four. Strength-wise, everybody is catching up. Hocker just shocked the world with an indoor 7:23 in his only serious attempt. He could definitely get to around 7:20 outdoors, and Kerr and Nuguse may be even faster, so Jakob's only edge over his competitors is going out of window. Not to mention Kessler and Laros getting better and better.
I don't see how he would win another world title tbf.
Sledge Hammer is the biggest troll on this site. Not sure why you guys are taking this thread seriously.
Jakob’s “problem” in the 1500 is that guys who have better turnover than him are closing the strength gap he had on the field. It exactly what we saw in Paris. If he can’t run the kick out of everyone through 1200 in these championship 1500’s he will lose. We’ve seen it time and time again and for people to act like it’s not a thing is absurd.
He has his gold in the 1500. He has 2 WC gold in the 5000 and an Olympic gold in the 5000. It’s probably close to time for him to move to 5000-10000. Records are nice but hardware is better. Run under 3:26 and 3:43 this year and then spend 2026 moving up to 5000-10000. Win world XC next January and do some of the bigger HM’s and leave the 1500 to the younger guys.
Younger guys? He's 24, he IS the younger guy.
He clearly means Myers, Laros, and Kessler. Try keeping up.
Jakob will continue to dominate the 5k/3k like he has the past years and use the 1500m to give himself an advantage over the 5k/10k guys (since its quite hard to beat a 3:26 guy in a tactical 5k). The best way Jakob has to win the 1500m again, would be to take it 1200m out and progressively ramp up the pace to the line (sort of like El Guerrouj in 2004), not even splits (or even positive like in Paris). You cannot say its 'over' for him now that the competition is stiffer, but it's certainly going to be much harder.
Things aren't looking bright for the Kenyans in the 1500m just now but that could all change dramatically come outdoor season. Tim was competitive last year and he could level up if he runs with Lewandowski's group (Laros), and so could guys like Reynolds Cheruiyot and others we don't even know. The thing is that in the 5000m (where they were really down for a while) and 10000m, the Kenyans, Ugandans, and Ethiopians absolutely dominated the year end rankings as much as pre-COVID. So, the reservoir of talent is in no way gone.
Things aren't looking bright for the Kenyans in the 1500m just now but that could all change dramatically come outdoor season. Tim was competitive last year and he could level up if he runs with Lewandowski's group (Laros), and so could guys like Reynolds Cheruiyot and others we don't even know. The thing is that in the 5000m (where they were really down for a while) and 10000m, the Kenyans, Ugandans, and Ethiopians absolutely dominated the year end rankings as much as pre-COVID. So, the reservoir of talent is in no way gone.
If Wanyonyi decides to seriously try the 1500, things will be looking way up for the Kenyans, and fast. He’s almost certainly already the fastest Kenyan at 1500 m, he just hasn’t proven it yet.
This post was edited 25 seconds after it was posted.
Jakob will continue to dominate the 5k/3k like he has the past years and use the 1500m to give himself an advantage over the 5k/10k guys (since its quite hard to beat a 3:26 guy in a tactical 5k). The best way Jakob has to win the 1500m again, would be to take it 1200m out and progressively ramp up the pace to the line (sort of like El Guerrouj in 2004), not even splits (or even positive like in Paris). You cannot say its 'over' for him now that the competition is stiffer, but it's certainly going to be much harder.
This is the correct answer. or at least close to it. whether you want to say ramp it up from 1200, 1100, 800, whatever. It's probably the right call, imo at least.
Totally premature. He thrives on competition. Many experts were astonished when as a junior he ran against the best Africans and got medals. White Europeans kids were not supposed to do that. But whether it was his father or innate, he developed a courage rarely seen in western distance runners when facing the Africans. He now has 4 gold medals, 3 in the 5k and one Olympic gold. For people to believe that everyone else is improving but he won't and he's just 24 is ludicrous! He hasn't even hit his prime as a middle distance/distance runner yet! He'll be fine!
I don’t think his injury is getting enough attention here. He ran one of the fastest miles ever in his season opener after not being able to race for 8 months, and obviously went on to run 3:26 and 7:17. His failure to medal in Paris gets all the attention, but 3:28.2 from the gun (after going out a second faster than he did in Monaco) is an insane performance. What might he have done with a healthy build up? Of course, the letsrun hive mind has no long term memory, so Jakob is finished until Lievin.
This seems to happen every year with him. I remember the first time Nuguse ran 3:47i with a nice close. Jakob was coming off injury and looked relatively sluggish running 3:32 in Lievin, and the board said it was over for him. That was the narrative until he rinsed Nuguse in a slower race in Rabat, and then went on to have the most dominant season of his career.
Similar story last year. Hocker ran the race of his life in Paris and there was immediately talk of the world record, Jakob having no answer to him, etc. Then the rest of the season happened.
It’s true there are legitimate concerns when it comes to championships, not because Jakob lacks the tools to win, but because he insists on doing it in the hardest possible way. His chances of front running to a gold medal get worse every year because the depth is so much greater than it was when Tim went from gun to tape in Doha. I’d love to see Jakob pull it off, because I don’t see him changing his tactics until he wins in this way, it’s just harder and harder to believe it’s possible. He’s come close several times, but the margins are razor thin and he has to have the perfect race to win after putting himself at such a massive disadvantage.
Jakob’s stubbornness and his hubris is why I am his big fan. Hes going to front run a global title in the 1500 or die trying. Obviously he knows the risks, and he never runs his off event the 5000 this way, but he wants to win the 1500 in as Kipchoge says “a beautiful race.” This drives everybody crazy. I’m not such a stats person as to be able to break down to the millisecond the relative closes of all the top guys, but I’m skeptical that Jakob has a significant disadvantage in this regard. I think it’s all bs. We just watched Fisher close down Hocker. Why? Is Fisher faster at the close? No, because Hocker was spent. Jakob front runs the 1500 NOT because he must to win, but because he wants to dominate. It may be that his stubbornness will be his fatal flaw, or it might be that he runs the “beautiful race” and we are all in awe.
thanks for that and saving the time to post the same thing.
I don’t think his injury is getting enough attention here. He ran one of the fastest miles ever in his season opener after not being able to race for 8 months, and obviously went on to run 3:26 and 7:17. His failure to medal in Paris gets all the attention, but 3:28.2 from the gun (after going out a second faster than he did in Monaco) is an insane performance. What might he have done with a healthy build up? Of course, the letsrun hive mind has no long term memory, so Jakob is finished until Lievin.
This seems to happen every year with him. I remember the first time Nuguse ran 3:47i with a nice close. Jakob was coming off injury and looked relatively sluggish running 3:32 in Lievin, and the board said it was over for him. That was the narrative until he rinsed Nuguse in a slower race in Rabat, and then went on to have the most dominant season of his career.
Similar story last year. Hocker ran the race of his life in Paris and there was immediately talk of the world record, Jakob having no answer to him, etc. Then the rest of the season happened.
It’s true there are legitimate concerns when it comes to championships, not because Jakob lacks the tools to win, but because he insists on doing it in the hardest possible way. His chances of front running to a gold medal get worse every year because the depth is so much greater than it was when Tim went from gun to tape in Doha. I’d love to see Jakob pull it off, because I don’t see him changing his tactics until he wins in this way, it’s just harder and harder to believe it’s possible. He’s come close several times, but the margins are razor thin and he has to have the perfect race to win after putting himself at such a massive disadvantage.
Jakob’s stubbornness and his hubris is why I am his big fan. Hes going to front run a global title in the 1500 or die trying. Obviously he knows the risks, and he never runs his off event the 5000 this way, but he wants to win the 1500 in as Kipchoge says “a beautiful race.” This drives everybody crazy. I’m not such a stats person as to be able to break down to the millisecond the relative closes of all the top guys, but I’m skeptical that Jakob has a significant disadvantage in this regard. I think it’s all bs. We just watched Fisher close down Hocker. Why? Is Fisher faster at the close? No, because Hocker was spent. Jakob front runs the 1500 NOT because he must to win, but because he wants to dominate. It may be that his stubbornness will be his fatal flaw, or it might be that he runs the “beautiful race” and we are all in awe.
thanks for that and saving the time to post the same thing.
I don’t think his injury is getting enough attention here. He ran one of the fastest miles ever in his season opener after not being able to race for 8 months, and obviously went on to run 3:26 and 7:17. His failure to medal in Paris gets all the attention, but 3:28.2 from the gun (after going out a second faster than he did in Monaco) is an insane performance. What might he have done with a healthy build up? Of course, the letsrun hive mind has no long term memory, so Jakob is finished until Lievin.
This seems to happen every year with him. I remember the first time Nuguse ran 3:47i with a nice close. Jakob was coming off injury and looked relatively sluggish running 3:32 in Lievin, and the board said it was over for him. That was the narrative until he rinsed Nuguse in a slower race in Rabat, and then went on to have the most dominant season of his career.
Similar story last year. Hocker ran the race of his life in Paris and there was immediately talk of the world record, Jakob having no answer to him, etc. Then the rest of the season happened.
It’s true there are legitimate concerns when it comes to championships, not because Jakob lacks the tools to win, but because he insists on doing it in the hardest possible way. His chances of front running to a gold medal get worse every year because the depth is so much greater than it was when Tim went from gun to tape in Doha. I’d love to see Jakob pull it off, because I don’t see him changing his tactics until he wins in this way, it’s just harder and harder to believe it’s possible. He’s come close several times, but the margins are razor thin and he has to have the perfect race to win after putting himself at such a massive disadvantage.
Jakob’s stubbornness and his hubris is why I am his big fan. Hes going to front run a global title in the 1500 or die trying. Obviously he knows the risks, and he never runs his off event the 5000 this way, but he wants to win the 1500 in as Kipchoge says “a beautiful race.” This drives everybody crazy. I’m not such a stats person as to be able to break down to the millisecond the relative closes of all the top guys, but I’m skeptical that Jakob has a significant disadvantage in this regard. I think it’s all bs. We just watched Fisher close down Hocker. Why? Is Fisher faster at the close? No, because Hocker was spent. Jakob front runs the 1500 NOT because he must to win, but because he wants to dominate. It may be that his stubbornness will be his fatal flaw, or it might be that he runs the “beautiful race” and we are all in awe.
thanks for that and saving the time to post the same thing.
jacob has olympic gold in a sit and kick against the world's fastest guy sat the time.
Nahhh he could still win. Just has to rethink the strategy a bit and let Nuguse try to make it fast. Kick off of him with 600m to go rather than press for the entire 1500. Expect Kerr to be there and Hocker to likely make tactical mistakes with positioning. That's his best chance.
How fast will Jakob need to run to convince people he can front run to a global title in the 1500? Does he have to run 3:24? Hocker lost yesterday’s race, so the “speed” and “gearshift” didn’t matter. If the pace is fast enough, the the lactic is too high and all of that stuff is moot. I think Jakob can do it if he has an injury free year.
It's not a question of how fast he needs to run. He can already run the physical distance of 1500m a second faster than all of those guys (well 0.98 to Hocker, close enough) - he's already 7 meters up the track. As you correctly pointed out the speed and gearshift won't and don't matter at these speeds because nobody is shifting gears when they are running that fast for that long.
The issue is that doing so based on "feel"/intrinsic regulation (vs extrinsic - pacemakers, wavelight) is just really really hard to do and fitness has simply nothing to do with it. Fitness wasn't his issue in Paris - he ran 3.26.7 a month before the Paris final, won the 5000m what, 4 days later and 2 weeks after that ran 7.17 for 3000m.
His problem in Paris was that the second lap was 56.6 which was way too slow but at the same time necessary because he got excited and ran 54.9 for the first lap which we haven't seen him close to in any race in Europe even with pacers/WL. So while Cole Hocker was also running a 56.6 second lap, he was doing so off far less energy expenditure in the opening lap both time wise (55.6) and energy cost wise (not running in the front, not having to get out hard off the line to establish the front of the race). I just believe we are completely underestimating how hard it is to say "hey I want to run these splits to this degree of accuracy" and do it on your own accord. We know it's now possible with other means available outside of major championships.
Could he get it right in Tokyo? Run 56.0,55.5,55.0 (or a race of similar structure?) It's possible but history and the human element have shown it to be increasingly difficult to do.
How fast will Jakob need to run to convince people he can front run to a global title in the 1500? Does he have to run 3:24? Hocker lost yesterday’s race, so the “speed” and “gearshift” didn’t matter. If the pace is fast enough, the the lactic is too high and all of that stuff is moot. I think Jakob can do it if he has an injury free year.
It's not a question of how fast he needs to run. He can already run the physical distance of 1500m a second faster than all of those guys (well 0.98 to Hocker, close enough) - he's already 7 meters up the track. As you correctly pointed out the speed and gearshift won't and don't matter at these speeds because nobody is shifting gears when they are running that fast for that long.
The issue is that doing so based on "feel"/intrinsic regulation (vs extrinsic - pacemakers, wavelight) is just really really hard to do and fitness has simply nothing to do with it. Fitness wasn't his issue in Paris - he ran 3.26.7 a month before the Paris final, won the 5000m what, 4 days later and 2 weeks after that ran 7.17 for 3000m.
His problem in Paris was that the second lap was 56.6 which was way too slow but at the same time necessary because he got excited and ran 54.9 for the first lap which we haven't seen him close to in any race in Europe even with pacers/WL. So while Cole Hocker was also running a 56.6 second lap, he was doing so off far less energy expenditure in the opening lap both time wise (55.6) and energy cost wise (not running in the front, not having to get out hard off the line to establish the front of the race). I just believe we are completely underestimating how hard it is to say "hey I want to run these splits to this degree of accuracy" and do it on your own accord. We know it's now possible with other means available outside of major championships.
Could he get it right in Tokyo? Run 56.0,55.5,55.0 (or a race of similar structure?) It's possible but history and the human element have shown it to be increasingly difficult to do.
Very good analysis. I’m thinking he will have even more of a cushion this year and so a little more room for error. Yes, if he goes out way too fast without pacers, it won’t matter, but if he misses the perfect race by a little, he’ll still be too far ahead to be caught at the end even if the others are closing, or they will even have less left at the end to pass him if they stuck with him throughout.
Speed-wise, he's the slowest out of the big four. Strength-wise, everybody is catching up. Hocker just shocked the world with an indoor 7:23 in his only serious attempt. He could definitely get to around 7:20 outdoors, and Kerr and Nuguse may be even faster, so Jakob's only edge over his competitors is going out of window. Not to mention Kessler and Laros getting better and better.
I don't see how he would win another world title tbf.
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