So if he can 'only' run a 28.07, what does that say for his chances of a 2.07 thon?
You would need to know how much he tapered for this and where he is in terms of training. with a bit over 3 months to the race, he could be in a pretty de cent spot. But 2:10 has always been a lot more likely than 2:07 for a guy running his first marathon..
So if he can 'only' run a 28.07, what does that say for his chances of a 2.07 thon?
I think the thing to remember here is
a) this is before he's started his Marathon build (presumably, as we're over 3months out) b) as he's pre-Marathon build, we dont know how much he is still swimming & cycling too c) as mentioned by someone else, he was sick in december d) the weather in the UK over December has been diabolical, so far from ideal training conditions
I say all this to say, 28:07 before the Marathon build, I think he's in a very good place atm
*edit: not to say whether or not the Marathon debut will go well because I think he may struggle with the lack of lifetime milage, but just based on this performance/fitness I think anyone ruling out a good marathon time is ridiculous
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
So if he can 'only' run a 28.07, what does that say for his chances of a 2.07 thon?
I think the thing to remember here is
a) this is before he's started his Marathon build (presumably, as we're over 3months out) b) as he's pre-Marathon build, we dont know how much he is still swimming & cycling too c) as mentioned by someone else, he was sick in december d) the weather in the UK over December has been diabolical, so far from ideal training conditions
I say all this to say, 28:07 before the Marathon build, I think he's in a very good place atm
*edit: not to say whether or not the Marathon debut will go well because I think he may struggle with the lack of lifetime milage, but just based on this performance/fitness I think anyone ruling out a good marathon time is ridiculous
Would have liked to see a PB over the distance, but the result isn't too far off.
Ruling out a good marathon time based on this performance alone is indeed rediculous for the reasons you mention, but ruling out a 2:07, which would make him faster than any current American, is not. Still think a sub 2:10 is quite possible, and would be a good result for him.
He beat Phil Sessman who ran a personal best. Sessman has run 2:08:04 for a marathon. 2:07 is certainly not impossible for Yee although unlikely first time out. There are lots of people with slower 5k and 10k times that have run 2:07.
He beat Phil Sessman who ran a personal best. Sessman has run 2:08:04 for a marathon. 2:07 is certainly not impossible for Yee although unlikely first time out. There are lots of people with slower 5k and 10k times that have run 2:07.
We can disagree on that. Here are the top Americans all time marathon runners.
1) 2:05:38 - Khalid KHANNOUCHI 2) 2:06:07 - Galen RUPP 3) 2:06:17 - Ryan HALL 4) 2:06:53 - Abbabiya SIMBASSA 5) 2:07:47 - Dathan RITZENHEIN 5) 2:07:47 - Conner MANTZ 7) 2:07:56 - Leonard KORIR 8) 2:08:00 - Clayton YOUNG 10) 2:08:17 - CJ ALBERTSON 11) 2:08:50 - Sam CHELANGA 12) 2:08:56 - Abdi ABDIRAHMAN 13) 2:08:59 - Martin HEHIR 14) 2:09:08 - Meb KEFLEZIGHI 15) 2:09:09 - Noah DRODDY 16) 2:09:16 - Zach PANNING 17) 2:09:21 - Alberto SALAZAR
A 2:07 flat (I assumed you meant you think he can run 2:07:00 or close to it) is 30 flat 10k pace strung back to back a bit more than 4 times. Very very few can run a 2:07:00 while not breaking 28 min in a road 10k on a super fast course in great conditions (assuming reasonable fitness). Of course some of the greats don't have fast 10k PBs, but this is because they've barely ran that distance or ran it well before they hit their prime.
I don't agree that Alex is at higher level than Connor Mantz at the marathon based on this performance.
Sure Phil Sessemann ran a 2:08:04 last year, and he was narrowly beat by Yee. That might suggest Yee could run a 2:08 if he performed at the level of an experienced marathon runner. That would be a great result for him, but to me this does rule out a 2:07 for his first time out. I didn't say it would rule out a 2:07 later in his career if he really focussed on the event, just think this performance does rule out a low 2:07 for the debut. Just my opinion. I hope he proves me wrong.
I think your list of top US marathon runners actually gives me some confidence Yee can run pretty close to 2:07. He's an olympic gold medalist (in a tangential, but still somewhat related event) and I don't see a world in which some of the 2:08 US guys listed are out and out more talented - not to knock their times, but we know 2:08 today is not 2:08 from a few years back with advances.
I think Yee will be there or close to there assuming no major first-timer issues (big assumption I guess). I think he's a NB athlete, no idea how their top of the range supershoes fair over marathon distance so will see if that hurts him. My other thoughts are Sessemann is probably running 100 mile weeks already and I doubt Yee has even touched a 100 mile running week this decade - hope he makes the start line in one piece so we can find out how he gets on!
I think your list of top US marathon runners actually gives me some confidence Yee can run pretty close to 2:07. He's an olympic gold medalist (in a tangential, but still somewhat related event) and I don't see a world in which some of the 2:08 US guys listed are out and out more talented - not to knock their times, but we know 2:08 today is not 2:08 from a few years back with advances.
I think Yee will be there or close to there assuming no major first-timer issues (big assumption I guess). I think he's a NB athlete, no idea how their top of the range supershoes fair over marathon distance so will see if that hurts him. My other thoughts are Sessemann is probably running 100 mile weeks already and I doubt Yee has even touched a 100 mile running week this decade - hope he makes the start line in one piece so we can find out how he gets on!
Gwen Jorgensen was such a dominant figure in the Tri having won the last 3 major international championships/olympics (arguably more so than Alex) and was especially dominant in the run, and this is why I have my reservations about Yee, given Gwen couldn't even hang with the elite Americans at any distance. I had such high hopes for Gwen. I thought she would contend for making the US team, and thought a 2:23 or faster was totally possible. Turned out, she did worse in the marathon than the 5k, ultimately peaking at 15:08 and 2:36.
My thoughts. The Tri is not like the marathon at all. Being good at the run of an olympic distance Tri is more like being good at a 10k. Yes you are tired, your quads are burning from the bike, but its different. Running a 10k after doing a long swim and bike ride is not like running 10k after running 32k. It's a totally different type of tired even though you are competing for a similar amount of time.
I hope Yee proves me wrong, but given Gwen's attempt, I'm no longer as optomistic about Tri athletes attempting marathons. The only thing going for Yee is his age. Gwen arguably entered the marathon too late (started to train in her 30s, where as Yee is only 26). So perhaps if Gwen started marathon training at 26, and gave it a go at her peak it would have been a different story.
As per Sessemann. His 2:08's seem almost unbelievable based on his track and road 10k resume. I think he is an exception rather than the norm, and we shouldn't base much around him. He seems to be one of those very rare freak endurance people. Even ultra runners like Jim Walmsley have better track PBs relative to their endurance events than Sessmann, and they are specialists at 100+ km. Thats how unusual his slow track/road PBs are.
Glad you are optimistic about Yee's chances, I am less so, but it will be exciting to see how he does.
Alex run split in the 2024 olymics was 29:47 and Hayden Wilde run split was 29:49, so almost 1:35 faster today or about 10 sec per k slower. He was probably fitter for the games. Give him more time.