And hey, if 4:27 “doesn’t move the needle,” maybe recalibrate that needle before it snaps under the pressure of irrelevance.
You think 4:27 scores at state? This is not the 60s. The sport is far too good for that to be likely anymore. Its like Rocky with their 200 sub 5 guys that still cant qualify for NXN. Same thing for Wayzata in MN and Woodlands in TX.
Pasco is today and Tiger Invite/part of Arcadia was yesterday. Pasco will probably shake up results more as CDA, Rocky and Timberline are there. The weather at Patriot in Boise looks like it’s going to be rough.
Eagle had a few notable results at Tiger. Jeremiah Petersen broke two, Maxwell Taggart and Petersen ran 4:28, Maxwell Taggart ran 9:33 and Kyle Pelham ran 9:48. Betsy Reeder ran 11:04, Josie Roy ran 11:39, Savannah Flake ran 11:44.
Jens Knutson with a disgusting jv kick to win patriot mile.
Worrying for Stadtlander and Lucas at their miles at Patriot and Pasco respectively.
Timberline’s Nick Janecko 1:55 at Pasco for the win.
Rocky’s Jacob Thomas runs 9:24 to win the Pasco 3200. Is he going to score at state????
I think a lot of teams are in the middle of their heaviest training cycles right now. Sheesley and Stadtlander looked tired. Lucas also ran 1:56 after his 1600 today. Stadtlander ran 1:53 on Thursday at their home meet- I think kids are just probably tired. These guys are all pretty consistent factors end of the season so I don’t think any of them should be worried just yet.
VanDahlen and Knutsen stock on the rise though! They’ve been on fire.
Jens Knutson with a disgusting jv kick to win patriot mile.
Worrying for Stadtlander and Lucas at their miles at Patriot and Pasco respectively.
Timberline’s Nick Janecko 1:55 at Pasco for the win.
Rocky’s Jacob Thomas runs 9:24 to win the Pasco 3200. Is he going to score at state????
Cody Lucas won’t score at state in the 1600 at this rate or will score a single point. Stadtlander, Knutsen, VandAhlen, Sheesley, Carr, Max CS, Zach CS.
Rocky has historically cleaned up at the middle distance events and that has helped them win a ton of state titles. They may score under 10 points excluding the 4x8 at this point.
Jens Knutson with a disgusting jv kick to win patriot mile.
Worrying for Stadtlander and Lucas at their miles at Patriot and Pasco respectively.
Timberline’s Nick Janecko 1:55 at Pasco for the win.
Rocky’s Jacob Thomas runs 9:24 to win the Pasco 3200. Is he going to score at state????
Running a smart race doesn't make it a JV kick. The weather was crappy. Just because you are in a race doesn't obligate you to take the lead if you have a race plan that works for you.
And hey, if 4:27 “doesn’t move the needle,” maybe recalibrate that needle before it snaps under the pressure of irrelevance.
You think 4:27 scores at state? This is not the 60s. The sport is far too good for that to be likely anymore. Its like Rocky with their 200 sub 5 guys that still cant qualify for NXN. Same thing for Wayzata in MN and Woodlands in TX.
I always laugh at when the huge number of sub 5 boys gets brought up. There's usually a good number of seniors in that list, so it's never as impressive as it sounds when looking forward. There's also other schools that have either similar numbers of kids overall or a similar number of returners that have broken 5. Rocky has 18 kids that have broken 5, with 11 returners. Boise has 17, with 12 returners. A lot of sub 5 boys might mean that you have a bigger pool of decent talent to pull from, but a 4:50 junior boy probably isn't going to be someone who suddenly makes an impact at the varsity level unless they just started running.
Good track times also don't always mean good cross times. It wasn't that long ago that the narrative was being pushed that a soccer player that had run 4:32 as a junior was becoming a full time runner was going to make a team into a real contender. He ended up being a 17:26 boy.
Valley teams 1600m returners and notable absences (mainly kids that ran varsity in the fall for these schools):
Rocky:
4:22, 4:38, 4:48, 4:49, 4:49, 4:52, 4:58
Notable absences: Jack Davis
Mt View:
4:22, 4:31, 4:40, 4:49, 4:51, 5:06, 5:06
Notable absences: none
Boise:
4:31, 4:37, 4:50, 4:51, 4:52, 4:54, 4:59
Notable absences: Miles McGee
Eagle:
4:33, 4:35, 4:45, 4:46, 4:55, 4:58, 5:04
Notable absences: Johnny Culpepper, James Anderson, Lucas Hampton
If we are rounding, and including times from indoor:
Rocky: 4:23, 4:27, 4:35, 4:43, 4:43, 4:46, 4:49 3200: 9:37, 10:00, 10:15, 10:16, 10:16, 10:32, 11:17 Still missing Jack Davis for both 1600 and 3200
Mt. View: 4:17, 4:24, 4:28, 4:42, 4:45, 4:56, 4:57 3200: 9:31, 9:59*, then a bunch of boys that are in the 11:00 range. Austin Riley and others haven't run one this year, so the 3200 could be much better. Chamberlain will certainly improve his after running 4:24 this last week.
Boise: 4:31, 4:33, 4:40, 4:43, 4:44, 4:44, 4:45 3200: 9:41, 9:51, 10:11, 10:28, 10:37, 11:04, 11:37 Some guys just haven't run many or any at all.
Eagle: 4:28, 4:29, 4:36, 4:43, 4:47, 4:48, 4:57 3200m: 9:34, 9:49, 9:54*, 10:05*, 10:18, 10:24, 10:57 Still missing James Anderson for 1600 and 3200m. Culpepper has not run an outdoor 3200m but did run 1600m last week.
Timberline: 4:35, 4:35, 4:37, 4:55, 4:59, 5:05, 5:15 3200m: 9:57, 10:14, and then the same thing as Mt. View
Borah will be a team to watch. 4:45, 4:48, 4:48, 4:48, 4:49
Caldwell could be a team to watch 4:30, 4:43, 4:46, 4:59, 5:00
Meridian has better 3200m marks: 10:08, 10:21, 10:22, 10:30, but then they need to find a 5th.
Yeah... But the 3200m marks are all over the place as more than half of the good girls haven't run one this year.
Rocky Mountain: 1600m: 4:52, 5:19, 5:23, 5:26, 5:32, 5:34, 5:35 3200m: 10:46, 11:29, 11:40, 12:03, 12:05 They don't appear to be missing any varsity girls from the fall.
Timberline: 1600m: 5:01, 5:12, 5:23, 5:33, 5:40, 5:44, 5:58 3200m: 11:07, 11:42, 11:58, 12:19 Missing Eva Rivera- she has only run an 800 this spring. She ran 5:26 in middle school and was a consistent mid 19 minute runner.
Boise: 1600m: 5:09, 5:20, 5:22, 5:23, 5:26, 5:34, 5:47 3200m: 11:11, 11:50, 12:29 I don't think they are missing any of their top 7 from last fall, but Boise is hard to get a read on because they have so much depth.
Capital: 1600m: 5:19, 5:29, 5:31, 5:38, 5:56, 6:07, 6:35 3200m: 11:24 I don't think they are missing anyone, but Ruthie Sullivan has only raced once this year (the 5:38 mark, she ran 5:32 last year)
Eagle: 5:18, 5:29, 5:31, 5:38, 5:57, 6:06, 6:15 3200m: 11:05, 11:39, 11:45, 12:29 They are missing Anna Glenn (5:22 last year)
The district unfortunately drops off very badly after these teams. It's also really hard to project girls teams going forward since freshman girls can have such huge impacts right away.
The top freshman girls at the Boise City meet appear to be going to Boise, Timberline, Timberline, Boise, Timberline, Boise, Boise, Capital, Boise, Boise. Top West Ada girls appear to be going to Centennial, Mountain View, Owyhee, Mountain View, Mountain View, Rocky, Rocky, Eagle, Mountain View, Rocky Mountain.
Mountain View and Boise certainly look to be the biggest beneficiaries of the next class.
It is interesting that the girls teams are all the same teams from last year. Are teams going to move up or down in divisions? IIRC, the boys sent one team more than the girls as there were not enough complete teams. Nampa looks to have 6 girls that ran a distance event, and Caldwell has 5, but two of those graduate. I would bet that they will run into the same issues next year. I'm at a little bit of a loss as to why the girls teams are so thin compared to the boys. There doesn't appear to be a single team outside of the Treasure Valley that could trophy at the 6A State meet. That's pretty sad.
Boise and Timberline will both be good. They both appear to have actual freshman classes.
Heemeyer, Orme, Spiess, Reeder, Richardson, Thompson, Livingston, Kouskov, Herd, etc. is certainly better than Carr, Tuft, VandAhlen, and whoever else there is.
Looks like CDA will be the team to beat for boys and Rocky for girls.
No other team will really be close to these two during XC next year.
Maybe a bold take, but I think the girls individuals might be better this upcoming XC season than our boys.
The Idaho state meet is so small that you might see something like last year with Rocky and CDA. The second place team might not be very far back in points at the state meet but would be at NXR.
Rocky, Boise, Eagle, and Mountain View really all could be in the same boat as Rocky last year. They all have their own "what ifs" about them, though.
One important thing to remember is that Rocky, Eagle, and Mountain View all might have only 1 point separating their #1 from Wyatt Carr. The real impact difference will be at 2-5.
Rocky has a 2-4 lifetime 3200m bests (including HOKA results for Rocky and Eagle both) of 9:57.5, 10:02.3, 10:15.2, 10:15.5, and 10:15.9. Jack Davis ran 10:02.3 in his HOKA time (the actual time, not the altitude adjusted time). Kurtz ran 9:57 last year. Rocky has a 4:35 boy that is not included in the marks above. Mountain View still has the same issue where they don't run the 3200m enough so it's impossible to gauge their 3200m against other schools. Boise has 9:51.2, 10:08.3, 10:11.4, 10:27.8, but their #1 returner from last year is actually the 9:51 boy and a 9:40 boy would be in their other boys. They also have boys that have run 4:43, 4:44, 4:44, and 4:46 that are not included in the above marks, so marks that are superior to the 10:27.8. Eagle- If we go off cross results, it's 9:33.7, 9:48.8, 9:54.4, 9:59.5. If we go off of actual 3200m times, it's 9:48.8, 9:54.4, 9:56.6, 9:59.5. Eagle's #1 isn't clear. They have three different boys that have been their #1 at various points this last year. One ran 9:33, one ran 9:54 at Simplot but has looked bad all outdoor season, and the other was 12th at state cross but is apparently one of the two returners in their top 5 that has mono. Eagle does have a 4:28 that is not included in the above marks. CDA has 9:31.1, 9:43.7, 9:43.9, 9:46.2.
They are clearly superior, but not so much that one of the above teams couldn't give them a challenge at the state meet.