The Official Katelyn Tuohy 5,000 meter prediction thread.

I would be happy to see the progress of the US Olympians through high school and college. I welcome data. Sounds like you operate off of emotion rather than facts. I challenge you to provide the information for all of us.

you might check out Cranny and Seidel, but of whom were very good in both hs and college.

14:50 is 2025 world standard.

3:00, 3:00, 3:00, 3:00, 2:50 would work.

Corey McGee was pretty good both young and old. But many do get worse and I think it’s more than just burnout and injuries in some cases.

Yes there have been one or two who were very good in high school who did something later. But the true teen phenoms disappear nearly every time. Recent ones are Dudek, Cook, Hutchins. Before that, Ping and Lane. And I really don't think any of the 1500, steeple, 5k, 10k, marathon runners on the US Olympic team were great in high school. The odds are very much stacked against Tuohy. Maybe she will be the exception, but it is like buying a lottery ticket. The odds are that she will lose becuase others before her failed. There seems to be something that cuases American runners to become great by developing slowly. Tuohy ran a time yesterday about what she ran in high school. That is not good.

Longevity in the sport is difficult, but not impossible. The whole "teen phenom" theory would have much more weight if she had not continued progressing so well into college.

As to yesterday, who knows what to make of it. Could be a bad race, or injury, or illness, or what have you. People were extrapolating from her 15:07 and assumed better fitness. If there is something unknown going on, we will not hear about it.

Theories are things people come up with and then test. Providing a fact is not theory. Elite female distance runners in the US were not teen phenoms.

Just the opposite. Give me the prodigies every time. Their upside will trounce the late blooming stiffs.

As a block. Obviously the internet somehow adores outliers and small sample size.

American running prodigies are hardly the equivalent of East African prodigies. Haylom can have a lousy Olympics then immediately bounce back with 3:54

Regardless, strange result from Tuohy. But late season tends toward greater fluctuation in both directions. It's not particularly meaningful unless she's still slumping in May 2025.

I hope she does indoors. That might boost her confidence. Indoors 2023 was her most recent good stretch of races.

Please list the Olympians in 1500, steeple, 5k, 10k, amd marathon and their ranks as seniors in high school. Many were in hundreds. Some were in the thousands. None were top ranked. None. Zero.

Didn’t Weini Kelati win Footlocker?
And Elise Cranny 2nd at NXN?

I’d say those were top-ranked.

Kelati wasn't an American product. She's sought asylum at age 18. Cranny is. But that is one athlete out of the almost 15 runners in the distance events. Some of the runners never made it to state in high school. Several were 20 minute 5k runners. Others were 5:30 milers. You are free to list the athletes and their accomplishments but you won't because it will bring attention to how far the majority were from the teen phenoms.

15:21

This is false. Most top pros were outstanding HS runners, if not “phenoms”. A few examples:

Molly Huddle – multiple state titles in XC and track and state records, 4th at FL
Jenny Simpson – multiple states titles in XC and track and state records, 3rd at FL
Addy Wiley – ranked #1 in the 1600 and set national HS record
Sara Hall – won FL, first CA athlete to win 4 XC titles, multiple state track titles
Shalane Flanagan – multiple state XC and track titles, national indoor title
Weini Kelati – FL champion and national indoor titles, multiple state titles
Molly Seidel – FL champion, 12 state titles, Gatorade female XC runner of the year
Deena Kastor – 3 state XC titles, 4x FL finalist
Dani Jones and Shelby Houlihan, both multiple state track titles and XC title and state records
In 2013 Hiltz was ranked 7th nationally in the 1600 and Andrews 3rd

There are a lot more examples, but you are welcome to search for yourself. And HS athletes don't even get recruited to programs like Stanford, Oregon, Colorado, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, etc. unless they are elite high schoolers.

And of course there was the original teen distance phenom, Mary Decker.

For current Olympians we can add Elise Cranny and Fiona O'Keefe (3rd nationally in the 3200) to the list of elite HS runners.

Kudos to this guy for this post. Nicely done.

A non-US example would be Battolcetti.

Nikki Hiltz: CA state champion in the 1600
Emily Mackay: 2nd @ indoor nats 1500
ESP: 1st place at NXN regionals
Emily Sisson: Several state titles in track and XC, 3rd at Footlocker, 18th at World XC Champs, and a gold + 2 silvers at U20

Those are just the first 4 I looked up. Your point is wrong. Most of the women who qualified for the Olympics were very competitive in HS.

Add Whittni Morgan.

In high school, Morgan was Utah's 2016 Female Athlete of the Year, winning four Utah High School Activities Association 1A individual cross country state championships, in addition to three basketball state championships and two volleyball state championships.