Altitude and the training lost to mono certainly contributed, and you can see I am a big Ryun fan. That said, Keino's 3:34.8 at 7,300 feet was a performance for the ages, and I wonder if anyone could have beaten him on that day anywhere in the world. I'm not a big fan of altitude conversions, but one I just looked at said Keino's time was equivalent to 3:26 at sea level. That's almost certainly BS, but I'd say it was definitely superior to Ryun's existing world record, and I don't think Ryun was as fit in 1968 as he was in 1966 and 67. But we'll never know.
Keino ran 3:34.9 to Ryun's sea level 3:33.1 (a race in which Keino finished 4 seconds behind Ryun). Keino never ran close to his Mexico time either before or after that race so I would argue it was a performance unaffected by altitude and therefore unimprovable at sea level - as he subsequently showed. It was probably affected however by a blood transfusion the day before in hospital.
At Munich Vasala showed what Ryun would have done to Keino in a '68 race unaffected by altitude. He did it every time they had met.
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
We haven't seen bicarb drops for the 1500m yet. We've apparently seen them in the 800m. They are also going for it race after race, in contrast to previous years. But the basic question with Jim Ryun is whether we are willing to believe that all of the disadvantages he had from no pacers, sub-optimal pacing, no drafting, 1960s spikes, and slow tracks really do mean that he would dominate today. For me, the math is pretty clear on this one. He really was way ahead of his time in 1967 at his peak. Closing a 3:38 1500m (5 seconds off the world record, comparable to 3:31 today) in 36 seconds on dirt is enough for me to believe. Closing 1200m in 2:46 says that he had the endurance and just was never in a fast paced mile or 1500m at sea level at his peak. If you disagree on 3:25, then tell me which of the following estimates is wrong and why:
1) 1960s spikes to superspikes: 2s per mile
2) dirt track to mondo: 2s per mile
3) no drafting to drafting to 1k: 1.25s
4) even pacing (no 1st laps in 61 with a 53 close): 3-4s
1. Most people exaggerate the effect of super spikes, but this sounds good as the difference between 2000s spikes to current spikes seems to be worth about 1.5s in a world class 1500m.
2. As someone who used to race frequently on loose dirt tracks in HS, state of the art mondo (Monaco, Paris or Tokyo track etc.) would definitely make a huge difference. Won't attempt to quantify it myself, though your figure seems reasonable. We'll go with 2s.
3. 1200m of drafting is probably worth somewhere around 1.75s (0.5s per lap) at world class 1500m speeds, so I'd say this is right on. This would fall in line with Jakob and Tim's front running performances.
4. Interestingly enough, Jakob ran a similar performance in the Paris semifinal - 3:32 finishing time, 60 first lap and 2:45 last 1200 with Kerr and Hocker right behind, and none of them were all out. It makes sense that a 3:26 high guy could front run a 3:30 type effort submaximally with some light fatigue in his legs and still recover for the final while two 3:27 high guys come in right behind.
The question then is was Ryun's 3:33 a genuine maximal effort pushing through the line or was he just doing enough to win? Couldn't find much on that. Either way, 3 seconds is probably in the right ballpark for evening out the splits.
Verdict: If we assume all of these advantages stack linearly and that there isn't some sort of point of exponentially diminishing returns as speed increases then yes, Ryun would be capable of 3:25-3:26 today. The problem is, we have no idea how all of those factors (or other outside factors) would interact together. Though now that I actually sat down and went through everything you mentioned, I'm more sold on your argument than I was before. The math on your individual points seems to be sound.
If we apply similar thinking to El Guerrouj, do you think he would still be faster than Ryun in today's conditions (esp. given wavelights)?
I remember Ryun's 3:33.1 in the '67 Colosseum Relays. In that era it was gobsmacking. He obliterated Elliott's great record of 3:35.6 but it was also how he did it. On a very hot day - the temperatures were over 80 degrees - he started conservatively, with a first lap of over 60 secs. Keino then took the lead and ran each lap progressively faster, trying to lose Ryun. 250m from the finish Ryun kicked and obliterated Keino. He ran the last 300m under 38 secs and put 4 seconds between himself and Keino at the tape. He never ran a greater race. Keino was utterly demoralised and it was believed he wouldn't run the 1500 at Mexico because he clearly stood no chance against Ryun. No one did. But mono in early '68 and altitude at Mexico City changed everything.
I would add he also showed that in that era he had a better kick than anything Hocker has shown and if Jakob had been in the race he would have likely suffered the same fate as Keino. To put 4 seconds between himself and his biggest rival in 250m was nothing short of phenomenal.
This post was edited 5 minutes after it was posted.
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