What is the best race strategy for Valby in 5000 final?

But interestingly, what seems to be completely lost on a few folks in this thread is that Valby’s last three laps at Natty’s Indoors 2024 were actually faster that Tuohy’s last three laps at Natty’s Indoors 2023.

She probably knows it’s something she has to improve on, but I suspect she’ll always be one to take it out fast, and other runners will hate competing against her because of it. She will try to wear them down and neutralize their kick. We’ll see if it will be enough.

I do believe that is the best strategy for her.

Neither Touhy or Valby is a kicker. They've learned to close a race from 1600 out, but they are both in trouble if someone is still there with 200m to go.

Valby's strength v field is as a distance runner. Like the Pre quote, she wants to make the field race 5000m, not 3000, 1600 or 800.

I don’t disagree with your take on Valby, but I think Tuohy ought to step back and check out what Holt is doing in stepping down to the 800m. Look at the results McKay is recently showing. Maybe Tuohy needs to decide to go full-on mid-distance for a few years in the sport, if that’s the way she wants to go.

Here are Cranny and Schweizer from 2 weeks ago, trying to keep up with Hassan, who was running 70-71 second laps. It was a valiant effort to run Hassan down in the closing laps, but neither had any kick left. Closing lap was roughly 69 seconds for both. Hassan probably had more gas in the tank, but I think this was a max effort from Cranny and Schweizer, since they needed the standard. Cranny looked good until that closing lap.

There is no chance she beats cranny. Zero.

If no chance, what odds do you want to give? 10-1 maybe? I will bet you $100 if you give 10-1.

Technically, it would be ‘Valby and she.’

Valby and her might trade the qualifying positions.

You managed to annoy on two levels, congratulations! (First being dismissive of the poster, second pontificating without risking an answer to the actual question.) You must be a joy to live with.

This is an interesting game theory thought experiment.

The questions are how long will St. Pierre and Cranny let Valby front run and what pace will she choose. Cranny may start a surge with a mile to go and St. Pierre will most likely surge past her at around 600m.

In the post race interview, Valby was not clear on her specific goals for the races and which event she was most focused on. She did not put any pressure on herself, rather she said I'm just going to race and see what happens. The pressure is on Andrews and Karissa and perhaps one or two of the other women that has run in the 14:50s (Valby is 1 of 5) for third place,

If Valby were to take it out and sustain a 14:45 pace, there maybe three or four left for the third spot after two and a half miles. Valby has a 25-33% chance.

If Valby front leads at 4:55-5:05 pace, you may have 8-10 women, or even more, realistically fighting for third with a mile to go. Tuohy has run a 4:23 mile and Morgan 4:24. Valby's odds could decrease to 10-15% for third.

The leader will be at 4:45.

Schweizer will be third or 4th. Andrews is out of her league in this meet. No way is she a contender for the team based on what she looked like in prelims

a dark horse if the pace is slow or 1-2 of top 4 falters is Ella Donahu who closed in 63.8 in her 14:58.

If it's 14:45 pace, the only person that can make a move from over a lap out is ESP. Also cranny has much better speed than valby, why would she go from that far out instead of trying to kick the last lap.

On current fitness, there are 4 runners in the final - St. Pierre, Schweizer, Andrews, and Cranny - who could reasonably hang if Valby runs 14:50 from the front. Given the nature of the 5k, it's a fair to say that at least one of the 4 will be off their game tonight and fall off the pace. However, there's another 3-4 runners - Infeld, Donaghu, Smith, etc. - who have shown fitness at some point to indicate they COULD run 14:50. It's possible that one of those runners could stick with the pace, bringing our lead pack up to 5ish (including Valby). Importantly, every second dropped could be another runner dropped. 14:50 and maybe we have 5. 14:45 and maybe we only have 3, and Valby goes. So while front-running is risky, if Valby has anything in the tank to drop 5-10 seconds it could basically guarantee her spot.

Whereas if Valby does ANY sitting back, I think she just makes it harder for herself. Her best distance is the 10k, even by the time you get to 3k she starts to fall off. Going from 2-4 laps out is simply not going to be enough time for her strength to matter. Is she really going to beat 3:59/4:00 women over the last mile? Given she has solo'd 14:52 twice this season, and ran a good portion of her 30:50 race alone, I think her chances of running 14:45 from the front are higher than her chances of out-kicking any of her top competitors in a 15:00+ race. Front-running FTW!