I don’t see Valby sitting out the 5K either. I’m sure a few of the other runners are hoping she does, so they don’t have run a fast race. I see something along the lines of 14:45 - 14:48 from her in 80 degree weather with an Olympic spot on the line. I can’t say whether it will be enough. I think it’s a coin flip.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
I don’t see Valby sitting out the 5K either. I’m sure a few of the other runners are hoping she does, so they don’t have run a fast race. I see something along the lines of 14:45 - 14:48 from her in 80 degree weather with an Olympic spot on the line. I can’t say whether it will be enough. I think it’s a coin flip.
Good point!
Haven't thought about that aspect of the race from her competitors' point of view.
Though everyone would be more than happy to tuck into PV's slipstream and let her do most of the work, it still means they have to push themselves to their limits because the race will be a fitness test.
Would expect ESP, Cranny & Schweizer to recover in time for their next races . . . but likely everyone else will be shot . . .
It will have zero affect on her 5000m. It makes sense to try to double. If she doesn't make the 5K team, she has the 1500 as a backup. No chance she'll make the 1500 team but she has nothing to lose and probably just enjoys racing. Maybe a PR, who knows?
June 21 - 5000 prelim
June 24 - 5000 final
June 27 - 1500 prelim
Exactly. Andrews should go for it if she is fit. . .
Yes.
And, that's the key point, "if she is fit."
Like Tuohy, she's back in training following injury rehab but has not revealed anything to the public regarding her fitness.
Mentioned this on the "US Women's Distance Lists" thread: there could be some sandbagging going on here.
Josette -- and Katelyn -- could be in far better shape than anyone outside their inner circles might imagine.
Prefer the "Power of Positive Thinking" approach. Makes for more exciting race-day possibilities.
Exactly. Andrews should go for it if she is fit. . .
Yes.
And, that's the key point, "if she is fit."
Like Tuohy, she's back in training following injury rehab but has not revealed anything to the public regarding her fitness.
Mentioned this on the "US Women's Distance Lists" thread: there could be some sandbagging going on here.
Josette -- and Katelyn -- could be in far better shape than anyone outside their inner circles might imagine.
Prefer the "Power of Positive Thinking" approach. Makes for more exciting race-day possibilities.
Except unlike Andrews, who has the OlyStandard, Tuohy does not. So both the prelim AND the final will go into factoring her WA ranking. Consequently, she very well may be left off the team even if she were to make Top 3 in a slow sit-and-kick race.
Now that would be some drama, if Tuohy actually went out and pushed the pace to get the standard like Abby Cooper did.
Except unlike Andrews, who has the Oly Standard, Tuohy does not. So both the prelim AND the final will go into factoring her WA ranking. Consequently, she very well may be left off the team even if she were to make Top 3 in a slow sit-and-kick race.
Now that would be some drama, if Tuohy actually went out and pushed the pace to get the standard like Abby Cooper did.
Yep.
So, I guess KT would want PV in the race, pulling KT along to a Q and having to fight her off at the end for an Oly team spot.
As you say, now that would be drama . . . but probably too intense for a select few on this forum.
Except unlike Andrews, who has the Oly Standard, Tuohy does not. So both the prelim AND the final will go into factoring her WA ranking. Consequently, she very well may be left off the team even if she were to make Top 3 in a slow sit-and-kick race.
Now that would be some drama, if Tuohy actually went out and pushed the pace to get the standard like Abby Cooper did.
Yep.
So, I guess KT would want PV in the race, pulling KT along to a Q and having to fight her off at the end for an Oly team spot.
As you say, now that would be drama . . . but probably too intense for a select few on this forum.
Regardless of what Tuohy does, currently there are ESP, Cranny, Schweizer and Andrews that Valby would have to contend with in the 5000m, whereas, her path to make the 10000m team appears less arduous.
Making the team should be prioritized over making an entertaining race. Her team may be carefully mulling it over, thus no declaration yet.
My guess is that Tuohy must think she is (at least) ready to compete with 15:00ish runners otherwise what would be the point of making her pro debut expecting to finish way back in the field? How fast the race will be and what time she runs will of course depend on what the field does. Finishing top 5 in this field looks a bit unlikely to me unless she is really sandbagging.
My guess is that Tuohy must think she is (at least) ready to compete with 15:00ish runners otherwise what would be the point of making her pro debut expecting to finish way back in the field? How fast the race will be and what time she runs will of course depend on what the field does. Finishing top 5 in this field looks a bit unlikely to me unless she is really sandbagging.
Maybe Donaghu will not be content to sit back in a 15min race, and will want to walk away knowing she gave it her best shot to try and get the Standard.
My guess is that Tuohy must think she is (at least) ready to compete with 15:00ish runners otherwise what would be the point of making her pro debut expecting to finish way back in the field? How fast the race will be and what time she runs will of course depend on what the field does. Finishing top 5 in this field looks a bit unlikely to me unless she is really sandbagging.
Maybe Donaghu will not be content to sit back in a 15min race, and will want to walk away knowing she gave it her best shot to try and get the Standard.
We don’t know if Abby Cooper will have 14:52 fitness, but after Bryan Clay she said she was going to work on her kick in prep for the Trials.
Maybe Donaghu will not be content to sit back in a 15min race, and will want to walk away knowing she gave it her best shot to try and get the Standard.
We don’t know if Abby Cooper will have 14:52 fitness, but after Bryan Clay she said she was going to work on her kick in prep for the Trials.
That would be incredible drama to see the veteran try and pull a repeat of what she did many years ago, chasing the Standard at the Trials.
A little fun speculation on Valby's strategy. She may have waited to declare until today in order to see who she would face in each race and also to see how fully she could recover in 5 days following a fairly hard effort. In this scenario, Rogers, Smith, and Schweizer are important b/c they also declared in both the 5 and 10. If Valby recovered well, she may believe that if she forces those runners into a hard effort in the 5 (around 14:45 - 48 if she can do that), they may be weakened in the 10, improving her chances of top 3 in the 10 even if she cannot hold top 3 in the 5. Of course, this assumes she believes she can beat all the others in the 10 except for Kelati and potentially Henes.
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