Is Jake Whightman going to be "the next guy" again?

I can only partially agree with you. Aside from what one might "have left in the tank", an also important factor is the ability to "shift gears", which is very dependent on the running form. While Jakob seems to be very efficient with his stride, he definitely lacks that "gear shifting" ability and it shows in his 800m times.

So it seems that the best chances in winning a championship 1500m are reserved for the 800m/1500m type runners, who also have done significant strength training. Something that Kerr and Wightman seem to have figured out.

Noah Ngeny also has beaten El G at the Olympics, as he ran 1:44 800m and 7:35 3k that year. Speed and strength.

This is false. Jakob had been stagnant until last year.

2021 - 3:28.68

2022 - 3:28.32

2023 -3:29.02

2024 - 3:27.14

Nice mention of Noah Ngeny. Had he not got into a car accident, It's quite possible El g might have never won an Olympic Gold.

Anyway, the best bet for Jakob to win is to take it out from like 700-800m, but that's really dependent on his form. Otherwise I don't quite like his chance, unless there's someone like Tim in Tokyo doing the work for him which I doubt.

I meant the 1500 Gold, of course.

Jakob reminds me of the great Ron Clarke in one respect. Clarke was a great time-trialler but was out-kicked in championship finals by runners with a faster finish than he had. That looks like Jakob over the 1500 when he faces runners with greater core speed than he has - like Wightman and Kerr. He will likely have to run near wr pace to beat them in Paris. And no one will pace him to do that.

The “shifting of the gear” guys (in a fast race) I know about, Beamish, Kincaid and Nordås are all slow in a 800m!

Jakob usually runs away from everyone in the home straight, so your narrative about “lack of shift” seems strange…

Kerr and Wightman don’t look like great shifters to me -Kerr didn’t even shift good enough to get around a sick Jakob before (or in) the last bend in WC. And Wightman, who really can shift, only manages to hold that speed 20-30m -not enough to give him kicking ability. But in a slow race Jake is a super kicker (took down a stellar field in 2017 in 3.35…

Give up on the "sick" argument. No one is sick who comes second in a WC final and then goes out and wins another final a couple of days later.

The other problem with your argument that Jakob has "shift" equivalent to those who have beaten him is that he must have lost because he had less endurance at the finish. It's one or the other.

Sick Jakob = whenever Jakob loses?

Jakob is actually one of the slowest elite runners when it comes to raw speed and / or ability to shift gears. But his immense strength leaves him with a lot left in the tank at the bell.

However, should an Olympic final ever be won in 3:35, Jakob could actually come in close to last.

I think they’re just quite different runners. Wightman is an 800/1500m guy I don’t see Kerr as one. I think he will eventually move to longer distances.

We will never agree on the sick thing… If Jakob had claimed sickness in WC 2022 (outdoors) it would have been quite hard to believe. Because he time wise was too close to his consistent race times for the rest of the season. But not so in the indoors WC or 2023 WC…

No, I wouldn’t use the phrasing “less endurance at the finish” when it comes to Jakob’s defeat for Wightman. -I would say less left in the tank, meaning that Wightman’s sum of 800m speed and endurance was better than Jakob’s that day.

I think you too know about quite a few champ losses where Jakob didn’t claim sickness. ( At least 8 of them, after a quick count). So why do you write something you know is wrong?

I'd recommend listening a little more carefully then. He speaks the King's English and enunciates perfectly.

Wightman and Kerr were in the Tokyo 1500m, and Ingebrigtsen beat them. Each knows the race he needs to run to win. It will be fun to watch the Paris race.

"Less in the tank" necessarily means less endurance at the finish. No one except you would say that of Jakob.

We won't agree about him being "sick" because an unwell athlete wouldn't have started or at least got anywhere near placing let alone lost by a few hundredths of a second. You've bought into excuses for losing and poor sportsmanship.

So what about Tokyo? Since then he has lost each WC 1500 final. That suggests they've got his number. It's hard to see how he will win in Paris if they are fit.

I don’t buy everything Jakob is saying. For instance his denial of how the doubling in WC2019 might have made him underperform in the 1500m. Or his “excuse” in WC 2022 (poor tactics). -This doesn’t necessarily mean that he is wrong in these two instances; it just means he hasn’t convinced me…

To your “less endurance at the finish” -don’t let us quarrel about semantics. -Yes, in a way Jakob had less endurance than Jake in the finish..! (Because the latter for multiple reasons had more left in the tank). Well, you say that not many will buy Jakob as a guy with less endurance in the late parts of a race, but remember that this was 2022 -a season that in no way matched Jakob’s 2023 endurance (his 2022 5000m win was against a much weaker field than anticipated - just have a look on the pb’s for the third and fourth placers). And even an endurance monster like Jakob will lack endurance in some situations: Just like Wightman and every other athlete Jakob can’t do things based on speed or endurance alone; it’s the sum of 800m speed and endurance that counts. Meaning: If Jakob opens too hard in a 1500m he will have less endurance in the end than an athlete that opens more moderate (even if that athlete has less endurance per ce)…

Sickness: Jakob grossly underperformed in the 1500meter’s WC 2023 and indoors WC 2022. And in both instances he and his support apparatus claimed sickness as only reason.

No athletes can be a 100% consistent -their performances fluctuate at least a little. -One can have a bad day, bad tactics / luck, misjudged peak efforts or altitude effects, problem with hydration or weather conditions, nerves, stress, sleep, injuries, conflicts +++…

Jakob seems more consistent in his performances than the average athlete, but there are nevertheless no lack of examples of (slightly) underperformances. (F.ex the mentioned WC 2019). But none of these underperformances seem grossly, and none of them (except the losses against Tefera / Kerr) seem sickness related (not that hard to find other causes). Saying that there are some interesting instances of (unmentioned) sickness:

1. In 2017 Jakob ran Euros U20 xc with a sore throat. He won easily, and denied his mother’s claims that he was sick. So was he a little sick (even if he didn’t felt bad)? -Hard to say; he wasn’t pressed hard enough…

2. Some years ago Jakob raced a 10k roads (“Hytteplanmila”) -he was the heavy favourite (no strong competitors) after setting a National record in the same course the year before. But 5k out he had to stop and eventually jogged to the finish line in around a 70 or 80 placing -tests showed a rhino virus (he also had had some nosebleeds before the start, if my memory serves me right).

3. In 2021 Jakob got (a little) sick some days before and after Bislet Diamond League. (After being healthy again he underperformed in Monaco some weeks later, -3.29 behind Cheruiyot and Katir- probably because of missed training). Interesting here is: In the TV series “Team Ingebrigtsen” Gjert and the National team MD, Ove Talsnes, discuss Jakob’s sickness, and the latter says that on Jakob’s performance level even a slight sickness will effect his performance significantly. So even if he’s not very sick it’s no point in racing (one get the impression that Jakob then would get a 3.48/9 mile time instead of the anticipated 3.46/7…).

I find no plausible explanation for the sudden and extreme drop in Jakob’s performances in the 2 mentioned WC (indoors / outdoors). Not in tactically flaws, bad pace, jet lag, bad peak and so on -on the contrary: Jakob seemed to do everything right… So that leaves me with two hypotheses: 1. Sickness 2. Nerves.

Conclusion: I find no indications what so ever of Jakob having a nerve problem in competitions / championships..! But I find explanations (f.ex from MD’s) that one can be “a little” sick -enough to make you run 2 seconds slower in a 1500m, but not enough to be “bed bound”…

He was obviously sick last year, and it was clearly seen in the final stretch of the 5000m. Not "forced to be in bed 45 degrees fever"-sick, but leaving him a bit worse off. The doctor also was the first to say he was sick before the race(1500m). Is Norways doctor lying about his medical condition to give him an excuse before racing? Doubt it..

Yes, he was obviously sick in the 5000m as well. But what to answer to the rest of your post I don’t know -I think a doctor can lie or overdo things, and the same of course applies to the athlete. (I don’t base my logic on trust -nearly everything’s possible in the human world). But if Jakob wasn’t sick something else must have caused his underperformance. And I just don’t find any plausible alternatives -he seemed extremely fresh in the semis.The litmus test is then if he had paralysing nerves -but the context and everything we know about Jakob scream NO. He might in theory be lying about his sickness, but not in reality, because then there have to be another strong enough reason for his bad running, and there’s simply no-one to be found..!

We haven't seen Kerr's full potential in the 1500 yet. That indoor 3k WR showed a new strength in him. He is due for a nice PB in the 1500. He is going to be very sharp this summer and he may be the toughest one of the bunch mentally.