Another Kenyan busted

rekrunner wrote:

Coevett wrote:

Well a huge study in 2016 conducted at elite training camps in Eldoret and Iten saw 4% of athletes admit to doping. All the athletes were national or world class. Of course the true figure is likely to be much higher as many or most would not admit doping even anonymously.

I've presented stats here many times that indicate that doping is likely rampant in Kenya. Close to a 1/3 of the male track team at the 2017 London WC for example suspended. 8 of the 13 fastest 800m Kenyans that year suspended etc. These are just the ones stupid or reckless enough to get caught.

What are you saying -- maybe as high as 10%?

Which "huge study in 2016" said 4%? Any details? Who conducted it? Compared to the Tuebingen study (two estimates of a "raw" 43% or a "conservative" 31%), 4% makes it sound like Kenyans are squeaky clean compared to the rest of the world.

If the 4% is so unreliable compared to your own stats, why even bring it up? Some of your stats included whereabouts failures, which may or may not include doping with a substance or method, so could significantly over-estimate the extent.

Coevett wrote:

rekrunner wrote:

What are you saying -- maybe as high as 10%?

Which "huge study in 2016" said 4%? Any details? Who conducted it? Compared to the Tuebingen study (two estimates of a "raw" 43% or a "conservative" 31%), 4% makes it sound like Kenyans are squeaky clean compared to the rest of the world.

If the 4% is so unreliable compared to your own stats, why even bring it up? Some of your stats included whereabouts failures, which may or may not include doping with a substance or method, so could significantly over-estimate the extent.

So the only hard facts that we have - doping busts - are in fact the least reliable according to you.

Instead of.looking at doping busts, which include athletes missing three tests in a 10 month period, we need to look at a study that estimated that 43% of athletes at the pan-Arab games were dopng. This study is clearly a hard scientific proof that British and Peruvians dope as much as Kenyans, and therefore their lack of improvement in times during the EPO era as compared to Kenyans and Moroccans constitutes peer reviewed evidence that EPO doesn't work.

Right.I finally understand you.

rekrunner wrote:

Coevett wrote:

So the only hard facts that we have - doping busts - are in fact the least reliable according to you.

Instead of.looking at doping busts, which include athletes missing three tests in a 10 month period, we need to look at a study that estimated that 43% of athletes at the pan-Arab games were dopng. This study is clearly a hard scientific proof that British and Peruvians dope as much as Kenyans, and therefore their lack of improvement in times during the EPO era as compared to Kenyans and Moroccans constitutes peer reviewed evidence that EPO doesn't work.

Right.I finally understand you.

So -- no further details about this huge 2016 study in Iten and Eldoret? How huge? What methodology? What did the authors conclude?

You've also got it backwards -- I think doping busts are more reliable, and that surveys on sensitive questions are largely unreliable, including the one on the pan-Arab games.

If we go by doping busts, Kenyas doping problem is relatively recent, say in the last 10-15 years. It is hardly able to explain East African World dominance as far back as the 1980s.

Armstronglivs wrote:

rekrunner wrote:

So you were arguing that the expert beliefs would be less serious then the expert beliefs? You are making no sense. They would always be equal with themselves.

In any case, contrary to your imaginary claims, the expert said that doping busts has declined at the international level, from 2022 to 2023, and that the increases now are from the national class 2nd and 3rd tier athletes. I expect that the numbers are increasing because the number of athletes tested is increasing.

I didn't argue any of that nonsense. I simply put it that because there is no data that shows the full extent of Kenyan doping then any assessment, however expert, ultimately is what is "believed" to be the case and not what is definitively proven. And the use of the word "believe" is not a synonym for a religious views or unfounded speculation. Expert assessments are also what experts believe, based on the evidence they have.

However the point, which you continually evade, is that expert assessment from either WADA or the AIU in no way diminishes the extent and thus the "seriousness" of the Kenyan doping problem. What it is showing is that doping occurs at every level in Kenya - which is what the busts are now indicating. It is their national disease.

Kochfan wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

I didn't argue any of that nonsense. I simply put it that because there is no data that shows the full extent of Kenyan doping then any assessment, however expert, ultimately is what is "believed" to be the case and not what is definitively proven. And the use of the word "believe" is not a synonym for a religious views or unfounded speculation. Expert assessments are also what experts believe, based on the evidence they have.

However the point, which you continually evade, is that expert assessment from either WADA or the AIU in no way diminishes the extent and thus the "seriousness" of the Kenyan doping problem. What it is showing is that doping occurs at every level in Kenya - which is what the busts are now indicating. It is their national disease.

"National Disease" ??? - you are being very unfair, what about monkey-AIDS and Ebola ? Your post is a car-crash.