Progression is a b tch (to understand). And so is (lack of detailed) information.
Just look at Jakob I. -He had his huge, nearly 10 sec 1500m progression in 2018, but already in the spring 2019 it seemed to stop. -I remember Gjert told so in an interview (they had to do some significant changes in the training). And Jakob confirmed the problem by running a crappy mile; 3.51 low). So what was happening -a 18 years old plateauing despite never having trained too hard..? So was it doping (for the first time) that got him on the (progression) track again..?
In 2020 Jakob did 3.28 after tawing the chase pack behind Cheruiyot. OK -expected progression. And then Oly 2021: 3.28.32 -fair enough; he wasn’t all out, but he had Cheruiyot as pacer. 2022: Indoors WR: 3.30.60 -OK, but clearly his weakest WR. The rest of the season: bad (maybe except of his WC 5000m win) - he ran a crappy 3.46 mile and a crappy 3.29.02 in good conditions…My thoughts: Well, he himself talks about having peaked -maybe this is what he can deliver in the 15, but with expected progress in the 5. Maybe he can be good in the half marathon sometime…
In Des 2022 Jakob got sick -for a long time. And he had numerous serious injuries. BANG 2023: 3.27.14 in a race that went wrong. WR (2 mile). Sick again. WR. + 3.43 mile with jet lag and short pacing…
My point with this rant? -We don’t understand progress! Especially without sufficient information (that we still don’t have about Jakob’s injuries 2021/2022 ++). We tend to fill in lack of information / lack of understanding the uneven pace progression so naturally can have with the easy doping explanation….