But you don’t want them to nab any world beating westerners..?
As in Gabby Thomas?
No, I meant my own “hero” Jakob, but also Jake and Josh (all being westerners world beaters). -Not that I think any of these three are doped, or think AddictSteve doesn’t think they too are doped, but his posts was formulated in a way that sounded double standards…
Katir's progression somewhat mirrors Grant's up until 2019. Then he improves an average of 8 seconds per year for 3 straight years. He regresses in 2022 (presumably due to injury/niggles) then takes a massive leap in 2023. That's when the alarm bells should have gone off.
Something to keep in mind is when you're operating closer to absolute human limits of performance, it's not a linear improvement curve, it's exponential. It's exponentially more difficult each second below 7:30. So even those 3 seconds of improvement between his 2021 and 2023 is damn near impossible. You'd have better luck getting 40% gains on the S&P year-over-year for 10 straight years.
With that said though, do I think Grant is a 7:25 guy clean? Questionable. Grant Fisher 3k progression: 2013 - 8:32.65 - 16 2016 - 7:50.06 - 19 2018 - 7:48.56 - 21 2019 - 7:42.62 - 22 2020 - 7:39.99 - 23 2021 - 7:37.21 - 24 2022 - 7:28.48 - 25 2023 - 7:25.47 - 26
Jakob’s progression was significantly larger than Katir’s in 2023. And Narve Gilje Nordås’. And Karsten Warholm’s in 2021, and I could give a long list of names with “exponentially” progress. -Is this really how you think we should prove doping..?
Katir's progression somewhat mirrors Grant's up until 2019. Then he improves an average of 8 seconds per year for 3 straight years. He regresses in 2022 (presumably due to injury/niggles) then takes a massive leap in 2023. That's when the alarm bells should have gone off.
Something to keep in mind is when you're operating closer to absolute human limits of performance, it's not a linear improvement curve, it's exponential. It's exponentially more difficult each second below 7:30. So even those 3 seconds of improvement between his 2021 and 2023 is damn near impossible. You'd have better luck getting 40% gains on the S&P year-over-year for 10 straight years.
With that said though, do I think Grant is a 7:25 guy clean? Questionable. Grant Fisher 3k progression: 2013 - 8:32.65 - 16 2016 - 7:50.06 - 19 2018 - 7:48.56 - 21 2019 - 7:42.62 - 22 2020 - 7:39.99 - 23 2021 - 7:37.21 - 24 2022 - 7:28.48 - 25 2023 - 7:25.47 - 26
Jakob’s progression was significantly larger than Katir’s in 2023. And Narve Gilje Nordås’. And Karsten Warholm’s in 2021, and I could give a long list of names with “exponentially” progress. -Is this really how you think we should prove doping..?
You really love defending dopers, don’t you? Or are you just so naive to believe most are clean?
His progression was a little too on the nose in 2021. Whereabouts almost bother me more than positive tests. I wish we knew every athlete who has missed 1 or 2 tests. There's no excuse in 2024 to miss 3 tests. I think the penalties should be worse for stuff like this. Feel like athletes (Christian Coleman comes to mind) have been welcomed back to the sport with open arms because people forget & athletes/their PR teams muddy the waters since there was no positive test. Katir will have his supporters since he's going to deny everything/appeal it & there's no actual positive test for people to point to (you know, because he avoided them).
I'm actually glad they don't tell you who has missed one or two tests, for the same reason I'm glad they don't make ABPs publicly available: there's far too many stupid people around who don't know they're stupid so they'll hamfistedly interpret the data and come to whatever garbage conclusion that they wanted to in the first place. Besides, athletes get whereabouts strikes all the time for understandable reasons. I remember Kate Grace saying she got one because she forgot to update her details after she moved house. But anyone seeing that she had a strike in her record could infer much more negative reasons for it. In reality, the only reason to publicise who has missed 1/2 tests is for gossip
Fair points, but I think there are some benefits to be publicizing. For starters, if someone has 0 or 1 over a 10 year span, most can accept that is good.
Likewise, if someone is consistently getting 2 per year and then on top of that their performances drop off once they reach 2, I think there's a pretty strong case to be made that something is up.
Yes. Still failing a test is obviously worse. I think 2 missed tests should trigger extra tests(paid for by fining the athlete)/double availability daily. Something to make it exceedingly unpleasant and undesirable.
I have asked my self and others why dopers get away with things, and the answers are mostly: micro dosing and undetectable designer drugs. But at least micro dosing should be able to detect, f.ex if the athletes are using the night timespan (11pm -7 am) to avoid testing -what if every top athlete had to have their mobiles on the whole night (but on silence for no unnecessary disturbance of sleep), and Wada had a program that could over ride this silence with a sort of loud sirens calling sound (my home country has that kind of technology for reaching the inhabitants in crisis) -the testers could then call during the nights and get their tests, and even detect the micro dosing…
Yes. Still failing a test is obviously worse. I think 2 missed tests should trigger extra tests(paid for by fining the athlete)/double availability daily. Something to make it exceedingly unpleasant and undesirable.
I have asked my self and others why dopers get away with things, and the answers are mostly: micro dosing and undetectable designer drugs. But at least micro dosing should be able to detect, f.ex if the athletes are using the night timespan (11pm -7 am) to avoid testing -what if every top athlete had to have their mobiles on the whole night (but on silence for no unnecessary disturbance of sleep), and Wada had a program that could over ride this silence with a sort of loud sirens calling sound (my home country has that kind of technology for reaching the inhabitants in crisis) -the testers could then call during the nights and get their tests, and even detect the micro dosing…
They get away with it because of their sponsors,and also their nations either turn a blind eye,or support them.Any means neccissary,so long as there's medals,or finals.Everyone dopes at top level,and they full on do it .Its called playing the game.Theyre not microdosing,either.Meanwhile mo katir looked like he glowed,whenever he competed.
This kind of thing has to be infuriating for Luis Grijalva, who I'm sure already had his suspicions about Katir.
How do you know Grijalva isn't doping, his progression is way more sus than Katir's; but since he's essentially treated like an American by the LRC fanboys he gets a pass right? His race at Worlds Eugene 22 was sus/af and no one said anything.
Jakob’s progression was significantly larger than Katir’s in 2023. And Narve Gilje Nordås’. And Karsten Warholm’s in 2021, and I could give a long list of names with “exponentially” progress. -Is this really how you think we should prove doping..?
You really love defending dopers, don’t you? Or are you just so naive to believe most are clean?
My beliefs are of no interest -they can be flawed (and so can yours). I don’t know what the doping prevalence is, or who dopes. But I refuse to throw allegations based on superficial traits -we must popp the guilty people the right way / according to just rules…
This kind of thing has to be infuriating for Luis Grijalva, who I'm sure already had his suspicions about Katir.
How do you know Grijalva isn't doping, his progression is way more sus than Katir's; but since he's essentially treated like an American by the LRC fanboys he gets a pass right? His race at Worlds Eugene 22 was sus/af and no one said anything.
Nah, Grijalva has been a freak of nature since high school. He came out alive compared to his other freak of nature competitors because he trained under Mike Smith. The Collegiate racing system fried him from competing well at Tokyo (he was also dealing with an injury in the early spring if I recall from that year).
In HS he doubled back from the 1600 2 hours earlier and almost beat a fresh Cooper Teare in the 3200. He has always had raw turnover showcased in longer distance races, what I’d call a tier lower than Cole Hocker’s. It would surprise you how truly deep the NCAA is. Eugene wasn’t much of a surprise coming from someone who has raced him frequently. Cooper and Cole were looking like medal threats in the 1500 that year too, but both ended up hurt.
Mo Katir is very suspicious. And these whereabouts failures don’t help his case at all. A similar situation as Adel Mechaal’s suspension (who by the way was coached by Jama Aden, when that took place).
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