I'll only speak as to the NW predictions, as that's my specialty. Jesuit and CDA are right where they should be, although it should be noted that it's likely going to be a tossup based off of who has a better track season.
Crater could be third, but I'd more likely take Rocky Mountain or Helena over them, as Crater looks pretty good on paper, but I will note that only one or two of their guys improved off of 2022 to 2023, and that they all have really fast PR's that were run on a track which artificially inflate how good they seem.
I think Rocky is better than Helena. Helena returns 6 of 7, but it's from 11th place at NXR, where none of them placed in the top 78.
Helena returns these top 7 places from NXR: 79, 86, 95, 110, 157, (182), 185. (Parenthesis means open race time plugged in to championship)
Rocky returns these top 7 places from NXR: 13, 71, (112), 154, (169), 177, (188)
Looking at returning places, these teams both look really even, but I would give the edge to Rocky given their much heavier depth.
Rocky Mountain missed NXN by 1 spot two years in a row. If Rocky Mountain does somehow get third at NXR NW, they will have a better shot at an at-large berth than they did for the last 2 years.
This is because the NW region is getting stronger and the CA region is getting weaker since all top teams in CA are senior-heavy. Third CA team took 17th at NXN. This isn’t looking good for California’s chances of sending an at-large boys team next year
California is really mediocre now and shouldn't be held at the same pedestal that they once were. They were just carried being carried Newbury Park, Great Oak, Arcadia, and a couple of very fast individual runners in the past. All which are now gone. It really showed at nxn, 8th, 10th, 17th. disappointing. Southwest is the new california
Rocky Mountain missed NXN by 1 spot two years in a row. If Rocky Mountain does somehow get third at NXR NW, they will have a better shot at an at-large berth than they did for the last 2 years.
This is because the NW region is getting stronger and the CA region is getting weaker since all top teams in CA are senior-heavy. Third CA team took 17th at NXN. This isn’t looking good for California’s chances of sending an at-large boys team next year
California is really mediocre now and shouldn't be held at the same pedestal that they once were. They were just carried being carried Newbury Park, Great Oak, Arcadia, and a couple of very fast individual runners in the past. All which are now gone. It really showed at nxn, 8th, 10th, 17th. disappointing. Southwest is the new california
California still has Walt Lange. Jesuit is looking to be the favorite in CA (outside of Great Oak). Jesuit is only losing 2 seniors but next year they will have some very good seniors, juniors, and sophomores that will help re-create the legacy of the program and keep it going in the future years.
Next year will very likely be the last year that Great Oak is on the map. California is looking to have some other good junior-heavy teams next year - such as ML King, Mira Costa, Woodbridge, San Clemente, Palisades, and Matilda Torres
California is really mediocre now and shouldn't be held at the same pedestal that they once were. They were just carried being carried Newbury Park, Great Oak, Arcadia, and a couple of very fast individual runners in the past. All which are now gone. It really showed at nxn, 8th, 10th, 17th. disappointing. Southwest is the new california
California was definitely not mediocre this year. Southwest may be better, but California ran five of the top 30 times (and 10 of the top 100) in the history of Woodward Park this year. That's not an accident and it does show their class.
California definitely didn't have a great day at NXN, but to call them mediocre or imply that they're disappointments because they struggled to run in the mud is ridiculous. They absolutely showed out at state the week before and teams were left home that would have made it nearly every other single year.
And, yeah, obviously none of them is Newbury Park. But then again, neither is any other team in this country... ever.
2022 they had 2 teams finish in the Top 4 at NXN. (Rocky didn’t get an at-large, but could’ve finished Top 10-12)
2023 they had 0 teams finish in the Top 10 at NXN.
The NW depth might be improving, but they certainly aren’t getting better up top unless 2024 brings 2 podium finishes for NW teams (which is unlikely with Herriman/Niwot/others)
California is really mediocre now and shouldn't be held at the same pedestal that they once were. They were just carried being carried Newbury Park, Great Oak, Arcadia, and a couple of very fast individual runners in the past. All which are now gone. It really showed at nxn, 8th, 10th, 17th. disappointing. Southwest is the new california
California was definitely not mediocre this year. Southwest may be better, but California ran five of the top 30 times (and 10 of the top 100) in the history of Woodward Park this year. That's not an accident and it does show their class.
California definitely didn't have a great day at NXN, but to call them mediocre or imply that they're disappointments because they struggled to run in the mud is ridiculous. They absolutely showed out at state the week before and teams were left home that would have made it nearly every other single year.
And, yeah, obviously none of them is Newbury Park. But then again, neither is any other team in this country... ever.
Other regions don’t care how you perform at your state/regional meet. It’s NXN that matters. If you don’t perform well at nxn, you make the whole region look bad. That’s what happened this year. The only reason why people pay attention to the regional races is if that region is considered a strong region. The only reason why people attention to the California state meet is that it used to be considered a strong region.
Other regions don’t care how you perform at your state/regional meet. It’s NXN that matters. If you don’t perform well at nxn, you make the whole region look bad. That’s what happened this year. The only reason why people pay attention to the regional races is if that region is considered a strong region. The only reason why people attention to the California state meet is that it used to be considered a strong region.
So? I'm sure these runners will do great in college and beyond without being too worried that you think they suck because some people had a bad day. Podiuming at Woodward has value, whether you think it does or doesn't. Being one of the fastest teams in the history of a state like California has meaning whether you think it does or doesn't.
Do you want to go on record and predict that Evan Noonan will wash out next year because he had a bad day at NXN? Is he now considered slow in the SW or NW? Your "logic" doesn't track. Speaking of track, watch these kids show out in the 3200. Gonna be a bunch of sub 9s in California this year.
I'll only speak as to the NW predictions, as that's my specialty. Jesuit and CDA are right where they should be, although it should be noted that it's likely going to be a tossup based off of who has a better track season.
Crater could be third, but I'd more likely take Rocky Mountain or Helena over them, as Crater looks pretty good on paper, but I will note that only one or two of their guys improved off of 2022 to 2023, and that they all have really fast PR's that were run on a track which artificially inflate how good they seem.
I think Rocky is better than Helena. Helena returns 6 of 7, but it's from 11th place at NXR, where none of them placed in the top 78.
Helena returns these top 7 places from NXR: 79, 86, 95, 110, 157, (182), 185. (Parenthesis means open race time plugged in to championship)
Rocky returns these top 7 places from NXR: 13, 71, (112), 154, (169), 177, (188)
Looking at returning places, these teams both look really even, but I would give the edge to Rocky given their much heavier depth.
Don’t forget that Rocky Mountain also has junior Parker Goggins who ran in the 16s in several races and was bouncing back and forth between JV and varsity. He didn’t end his season well so he was probably going through a sickness or an injury. He will important for the team next year as a senior. He did make a huge jump from sophomore year.
Also Hokanson from Crater is a junior, not a senior as listed in the NXN results. So Crater returns 5 guys from NXN. Their 5th returner is a freshman who never ran in their top 7 until NXN. Since he is a freshman we can expect a big jump from him next year.
5A state schools by 3200 depth at various levels: (Should be noted that CDA, Boise, and Rocky, have all had some pretty high level freshman that could mix this up)
Sub 9:45:
CDA 3
Rocky 3
Boise 2
Eagle 1
Timberline 1
Thunder Ridge 1
Sub 10:
Rocky 5
CDA 3 (or 4 with Carr)
Boise 4
Eagle 3
Cen10 3
Mountain View 1
Highland 1
Timberline 1
Thunder Ridge 1
Capital 1
Sub 10:30:
Rocky 15
Eagle 6
CDA 5
Boise 5
Cen10 5
Mountain View 4
Timberline 2
Capital 2
Highland 1
Thunder Ridge 1
Lake City 1
Sub 11:
Rocky 21
Eagle 7
CDA 6
Mountain View 6
Boise 5
Cen10 5
Highland 4
Timberline 4
Thunder Ridge 3
Capital 2
Lake City 1
Some "pretty high level freshmen" is stretching it for Rocky. They had boys run the following on the Firman course:
17:32, 17:44, 18:36, 18:52.
Boise had:
16:54, 17:16, 17:27, 18:07, 18:13
Considering that Rocky trains on this course on a weekly basis, one would expect that Rocky guys would perform better than other teams on this course, especially against other freshmen that haven't seen the course as much.
Coeur D’Alene has the best group of freshmen in Idaho
Some "pretty high level freshmen" is stretching it for Rocky. They had boys run the following on the Firman course:
17:32, 17:44, 18:36, 18:52.
Boise had:
16:54, 17:16, 17:27, 18:07, 18:13
Considering that Rocky trains on this course on a weekly basis, one would expect that Rocky guys would perform better than other teams on this course, especially against other freshmen that haven't seen the course as much.
Coeur D’Alene has the best group of freshmen in Idaho
I would put my money on Boise over CDA given the fact that CDA's freshman all ran their PR's at either
A - a course that was clearly short by 20-30 seconds or
B - a course that is very fast (hole in the wall, it finishes on a track and is lots of nice paths), with tons of competition
Boise ran all those freshman times at random courses across the greater Boise area
Plainfield South returns 2-3-5-6-7 (11-11-9-9-10) after finishing 1 point behind Plainfield North. As it seems frosh-soph make good growth development during this time they will be back.
They return a couple pieces, but far less than the rest of the Midwest. They lack a solid 5-7
Well Plainfield South only returned 3 of their guys from last year’s varsity, and one of their returners (Boerger) didn’t compete at NXR. From that, on paper this would make them a mediocre team but instead they almost took second at NXR which is better than most people expected
Plus, the #3-5 returners are young (9th and 10th graders) and have never been on this team until this year so we can expect them to make huge jumps. It takes 5 to score
I wasn’t saying that California will be bad or that Northwest will be the best it’s ever been.
It’s just that it’s not likely that California will have an at-large boys team unless some random teams get good transfers and are able to compete with the top teams in the nation. Northwest seems like it has a better chance to get an at-large bid.
I think on the boys side, the at large boys teams will be: 2 from Southwest 1 from Northwest 1 from Midwest
Jesuit LA should be better next year than they were this year and will have much more experience.
In the middle of the season, Jesuit LA will be very good, but at NXR they likely won’t do as well as on paper because the LA state meet and NXR are only a few days apart.
Jesuit LA should be better next year than they were this year and will have much more experience.
In the middle of the season, Jesuit LA will be very good, but at NXR they likely won’t do as well as on paper because the LA state meet and NXR are only a few days apart.
Not ideal, but it didn't hurt Belen Jesuit, who raced their state meet on a Friday and NXR on Sunday.
In the middle of the season, Jesuit LA will be very good, but at NXR they likely won’t do as well as on paper because the LA state meet and NXR are only a few days apart.
Not ideal, but it didn't hurt Belen Jesuit, who raced their state meet on a Friday and NXR on Sunday.
Southeast wasn’t very strong outside of Belen. Second SE team got 21st at NXN and lost to a team from a state that people think should be combined with NE
California is really mediocre now and shouldn't be held at the same pedestal that they once were. They were just carried being carried Newbury Park, Great Oak, Arcadia, and a couple of very fast individual runners in the past. All which are now gone. It really showed at nxn, 8th, 10th, 17th. disappointing. Southwest is the new california
California still has Walt Lange. Jesuit is looking to be the favorite in CA (outside of Great Oak). Jesuit is only losing 2 seniors but next year they will have some very good seniors, juniors, and sophomores that will help re-create the legacy of the program and keep it going in the future years.
Next year will very likely be the last year that Great Oak is on the map. California is looking to have some other good junior-heavy teams next year - such as ML King, Mira Costa, Woodbridge, San Clemente, Palisades, and Matilda Torres
West Ranch and JSerra Catholic are other boys teams that have good sophomore classes.
JSerra only has 1 junior and 1 senior on varsity, and they received some transfers this year on the girls side, and one on the boys side
Parker Goggins was injured, and his injury was made worse by the Rocky coaches rushing him back for no reason at all. He wasn't a scorer for them, was dealing with a possible stress fracture, and they continued to try to train him and continued to race him.
FWIW, his best speed rating was 158.76, at a meet where a good chunk of Rocky boys and girls had their best speed ratings of the season, and a major lack of competition. Outside of that, it was a 156.63.
Parker Goggins was injured, and his injury was made worse by the Rocky coaches rushing him back for no reason at all. He wasn't a scorer for them, was dealing with a possible stress fracture, and they continued to try to train him and continued to race him.
FWIW, his best speed rating was 158.76, at a meet where a good chunk of Rocky boys and girls had their best speed ratings of the season, and a major lack of competition. Outside of that, it was a 156.63.
I'm no rocky fanboy, but unless you have actual info from the Rocky team, you shouldn't be claiming that his injury was made worse because of the coaches rushing him into things.
You're an anonymous person online, why should we trust you?
Parker Goggins was injured, and his injury was made worse by the Rocky coaches rushing him back for no reason at all. He wasn't a scorer for them, was dealing with a possible stress fracture, and they continued to try to train him and continued to race him.
FWIW, his best speed rating was 158.76, at a meet where a good chunk of Rocky boys and girls had their best speed ratings of the season, and a major lack of competition. Outside of that, it was a 156.63.
Wow, if someone is injured and is on the cusp between varsity and JV, and has another full year left, it’s not right for a coach to force someone to keep training
Parker Goggins was injured, and his injury was made worse by the Rocky coaches rushing him back for no reason at all. He wasn't a scorer for them, was dealing with a possible stress fracture, and they continued to try to train him and continued to race him.
FWIW, his best speed rating was 158.76, at a meet where a good chunk of Rocky boys and girls had their best speed ratings of the season, and a major lack of competition. Outside of that, it was a 156.63.
I'm no rocky fanboy, but unless you have actual info from the Rocky team, you shouldn't be claiming that his injury was made worse because of the coaches rushing him into things.
You're an anonymous person online, why should we trust you?
Look at his Strava. He talks about how he has a potential stress fracture a couple of times but he is continuing to run through it. Is that enough proof for you?
If you have the potential of a stress fracture, it would make sense that you pause training while you figure things out, not continue to train on it and then race through it until you end up in a boot to end the year.
And yes, my information is directly from the Rocky team.