BU Performance Lists

When it comes to assessing where these women are at fitness-wise, I think the 3000m race could be the tell, if Gorriaran can hold to the 8:48 pacing (and not impede before stepping off.)

Markezich now appears to be fitter (possibly significantly) than her previous 8:50.

I'm pretty sure neither Bush nor Covert were at their top fitness, and it did not seem to be Stearns best day either.

For example, if Markezich can squeeze out an 8:43, that’s a 15:09 equivalent (and she was 15sec back of Valby at Natty’s.)

This is kind of why I sort of think Valby is currently at ~15min fitness.

She also lost to Hilda, finished a few seconds faster than Hilda in another race, and was 10 seconds faster than a banged up Chmiel. People keep harping on a result she ran in Kenya, but the results here this season are not showing these extraordinary projections.

Well if we use Hilda who had a good race and has seemingly improved from last year (6th to 4th)...

6th last year, 18 seconds behind Tuohy and runs 15:17

4th this year, 27 seconds behind Valby, runs ____

Tuohy ran 15:03 last year and it was not in her peak form.

It was a 5K road race in Lille where she finished 3rd. Yes, it is a fast race/course (Kejelcha ran 12:50) on the men's race. Great opportunity to PB. Hilda ran 15:17 last year at BU and seems to be better this year. Beating her by 17 seconds in a race where you save for the last K is a strong result.

Tuohy ran 15:16 here last year. I’m not sure there is anything to suggest otherwise than that her outdoor 15:03 was indeed her peak form, at the time.

you can't use improved placing at a cross country meet on a different course with different athletes than the year before as a sign of an improved track time. You even said above XC and track are different things so stop comparing them. Tuohy beat Chelengat by 30 seconds at nationals last year then beat her by 2 seconds at BU. Chmiel and Stearns both beat Olemomoi at Nationals last year and then lost to her by 10 and 15 seconds respectively at BU 2 weeks later.

It was not her peak. She even said her training was really bad before that race.

At the time, yes. Her outdoor season was a struggle. 8:35.2 is worth a 14:46 in IAAF tables. I'm not saying she was definitively able to do that, but it's fair to say her indoor fitness was definitely better than her outdoor when she ran 15:03. So if she'd run a fast 5K in January/February it would've been a good bit faster.

Did you expect her to say the contrary?

That’s hokey dom as far as I’m concerned. The outdoor track is more credible than indoor tracks.

All things considered, it's a reasonable assumption that Valby is in 15:00 - 15:15 form. The wild card here is Rodenfels. She is also an even pace front runner, has run 15:08 here 2 years in a row and is fit right now. Even with imperfect pacing, Rodenfels/Valby can work together to challenge 15:00.

I still would pick 15:10 for the win, but the scenario for a quicker race is there.

Millrose is a fast track, but not BU (with the springy woody boards). It has a pretty standard surface.

Yes she peaked and has never been the same since.

It was already after she started to wear down. Tuohy is always very honest and that type of thing.

Gee, I would hope a 15:15 is a “reasonable assumption”, since just a few weeks ago at SEC’s she ran a 15:20 equivalent (no hand-waving) in the heat on a grass course that possessed some hills and sand.