After you all, including the Valbymaniacs, carefully consider the ^above^, would it not make more sense for her to first do some ‘rust-buster’ races on the track, before trying to race at peak fitness?
The BU opener is an odd race. Rather than any rust buster, it's a balls to the wall race using the tail end of xc fitness. The teams that run hard here start the post xc break right after the BU race.
The idea is to knock out either the 5k or 3k indoor qualifier very early. If you look at recent results, this strategy has become so popular that about 75% of qualifiers for indoor 3&5 come from this one meet. Get your popcorn.
This is true, but keep in mind it's different for males. There's more depth from #1 to #16 (and by #16, I mean the 16th best entry - probably the 18th-20th best time) compared to women so they have to go faster. Robenson can't tempo a 13:26 5k but it'd be far more reasonable for an xc shape touchy / Valley (let's say 14:55) to either urn 15:05 and dominate or cruise in a 15:30 at 10k effort.
For everyone who watched the previous days presser…
Did KT look, act or sound sick in any shape or form to be honestly sick ..?!
She obviously did not look terribly ill the day before, but that doesn’t mean she wasn’t proceeding into illness. I think one source stated it was Henes that said she woke up the day of the race with the illness.
She did maybe look a bit ‘pale’ (lean?) and pensive at the presser. But that could also be from speed work in prior days, and getting down to race-weight, getting ready to race (which in-turn, can deplete the immune system a bit.)
Markezich ran a nifty 8:50 at this meet last year, and after becoming a 9:17 steepler and her showing at XC Nats I think she could steal the headline if the two golden children don’t show.
Markezich should go 8:40's. Pretty exciting. For all the Valby / Tuohy talk I am excited to see Lemnegole, Markezich, Maatoug and some others battle the 3k
LAACTIC’s 15:17 puts her at ~8:47. Maybe she could go even go 8:45 with a good race setup.
Valby vs Wiley in the BU 3000 is the race we want to see. Tuohy can let pros pull her to an Olympics QT in the 5k.
The 3000m is not a good distance for Valby and it’s not even an olympic event. The 5000 would be perfect for Tuohy and Valby. Maybe Wiley has a range like Hassan and can challenge them at that distance as well.
LAACTIC’s 15:17 puts her at ~8:47. Maybe she could go even go 8:45 with a good race setup.
Wayment set her 5k PR at this race her final year - 15:15, and her 3k PR at Millrose a few months later in 8:50. Markezich may be on her way to breaking Wayment's SC CR this year (unless Lemngole does it) so seems to be on a similar trajectory. But I agree, I could see upper 8:4x's.
Looking at Wayment's final season though it got me thinking maybe Markezich does the same and tries for 3k/5k instead of 3k / dmr this year. If so, she will likely run the 5k at BU. I would not be surprised if she ran 15:15-15:20 after her showing at nationals.
Valby vs Wiley in the BU 3000 is the race we want to see. Tuohy can let pros pull her to an Olympics QT in the 5k.
The 3000m is not a good distance for Valby and it’s not even an olympic event. The 5000 would be perfect for Tuohy and Valby. Maybe Wiley has a range like Hassan and can challenge them at that distance as well.
In an interview a year or two ago, Valby said she thought the 3000m might be her best distance, but things can change.
Valby vs Wiley in the BU 3000 is the race we want to see. Tuohy can let pros pull her to an Olympics QT in the 5k.
The 3000m is not a good distance for Valby and it’s not even an olympic event. The 5000 would be perfect for Tuohy and Valby. Maybe Wiley has a range like Hassan and can challenge them at that distance as well.
I can def see that in her future, but being so young, I imagine her strength is really 800/1500 for now. She is essentially on the brink of world-class in those events, at age 20.
Can’t see her keeping up with Valby or Tuohy at 5000 right now, but in a few years, perhaps.
******************** I sought other data to try and see how realistic Valby’s rating is. I looked at past Nuttycombe times by various athletes, and their corresponding BU indoor time that same year:
First let me say that I am a huge fan of the site Lacctic so this is not a criticism.I am curious what others think about the Ratings? It's interesting because some seem spot on, others are 'slower' than what a runner is like...
******************** I sought other data to try and see how realistic Valby’s rating is. I looked at past Nuttycombe times by various athletes, and their corresponding BU indoor time that same year:
However, trying to approach 15min in this race will not be possible if the pacing is too slow.
I'm not sure Valby really needs a pacer. But if there is one they better make sure they are not going slower than her desired pace (and getting in her way).
******************** I sought other data to try and see how realistic Valby’s rating is. I looked at past Nuttycombe times by various athletes, and their corresponding BU indoor time that same year:
However, trying to approach 15min in this race will not be possible if the pacing is too slow.
If they can get a pacer to go through 3k in 9 flat and then if there are some runners working together I think it is possible.
Very curious to see which pros sign up other than Rodenfels.
Interesting note re Rodenfels (since there has been so much chatter about Tuohy being ill).
Rodenfels ran 15:22 winning USATF 5k champs 3 weeks ago, beating Kelati by 8s. Today, Kelati beat her by over 30s at Manchester Road race. The announcer shared that Kelati was ill during the race 3 weeks ago. Was Rodenfels off today? It just goes to show you can't draw too many conclusions from a few races.
******************** I sought other data to try and see how realistic Valby’s rating is. I looked at past Nuttycombe times by various athletes, and their corresponding BU indoor time that same year:
However, trying to approach 15min in this race will not be possible if the pacing is too slow.
I'm not sure Valby really needs a pacer. But if there is one they better make sure they are not going slower than her desired pace (and getting in her way).
Valby is a long-striker, rather than a short-kicker, so is at a disadvantage if the pacing is too slow, and obviously at a disadvantage if she has to be the pacesetter (which would look a little disgraceful if there are pros in the race looking to just sit on her.)
I'm not sure Valby really needs a pacer. But if there is one they better make sure they are not going slower than her desired pace (and getting in her way).
Valby is a long-striker, rather than a short-kicker, so is at a disadvantage if the pacing is too slow, and obviously at a disadvantage if she has to be the pacesetter (which would look a little disgraceful if there are pros in the race looking to just sit on her.)
There will be a pacer and if Valby runs her coach will have a say in the pace that is set. They might even have two pacers if the time requested is fast.
I agree with everything except the bolded text. She was sick last weekend. Henes said she is in top shape. Once KT kicks her sickness she will be likely be... in top shape.
I tend to believe this for the moment. Tuohy seemed to be trending well between Nuttycombe and nationals, and I have no reason to doubt she had a cold/minor illness at nationals that led to a subpar performance (and she still placed 5th). I don’t pretend to know better than the athletes and their coaches what’s best to avoid burnout and to prepare for their larger goals, but it wouldn’t surprise me for either to cash in on their XC fitness and get an indoor Nats qualifier before taking a break and then running easy until after the new year. For Valby, a chance to translate her awesome form to a big 5k PR; for Tuohy, something of a personal redemption if what we saw at Nats wasn’t representative of her true fall fitness. I think Valby has a good chance at sub-15 and Tuohy can probably run another 15:0x on a good day.
I'm getting really tired of people on here talking on emotion rather than reason. Tuohy was trending upward after Nuttycombe. Broke the course record at ACCs with a strong last 1k. Had a strong regionals as well. Sometimes you just don't feel good on the day. Not making excuses because Valby has been FANTASTIC this fall. Even if Katelyn was healthy on the day, I don't think she can close that gap.
However, the track is a different story. Schweizer was the defending champ in '17 and struggled at NCAAs. Then she came back and beat Kurgat at BU. The ball is in each of their courts. I don't think Valby nor Tuohy NEEDS to race BU in order to have a great indoor/outdoor campaign. I understand the reasoning for both wanting to possible test themselves one more time before 2024.
In terms of Tuohy going pro or not, I'm in favor of her staying in NC State colors for the track seasons, but that's not my business. She needs to do what works best for her. Same thing with Valby. I'd love to see her rock a 10k this spring.
If they can get Kelati to race or pace the BU 5k, we could see some fireworks, for sure.
She was scheduled last year but withdrew because of Merrie Mile.
Let’s get the indoor season started with some 🔥 5000m action at @TerrierTFXC next weekend at the Boston University Sharon Colyear-Danville Season Opener
The fastest heat will reportedly be paced for 15:00. The second heat will target 15:30.
This “kinetic chain” talk of yours is meaningless babble.
Why the anger? If you don’t understand, just ask, and I’ll explain it to you.
Well I’m not angry. Go ahead and explain it if you like, but you didn’t offer any explanation when another poster asked. Valby is fit to run 6ks on hard golf courses and her training has included track workouts. She’s fit to run a fast 5k on the track right now, “kinetic chain” be damned.
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