Why I think Tuohy will still win over Valby

I can't say that I can see her steepling. Longer legs I grant you, but seems to have less speed.

Most f##king N#zi post.

You might be getting a little carried away with the steeplechase talk.

If you tell Parker Valby she can’t do it, she may try to prove you wrong. But what if she bangs her knee??

Jim Ryun was kind of gangly, maybe they were similarly coordinated/athletic? So Would you suggest Jim Ryun to try the steeple?

I doubt either Valby or Touhy care at all what that guy said about racing tactics. He dominated the NCAA because he was much better than everyone else. He failed to get a medal on the world stage because he wasn't. Not certain his opinion on tactics is that helpful to anyone.

While I can see some similarities to last year (where Valby was throwing down impressive times, but then lost to Tuohy at Nats), I think the results will be different this time around. Last year, Valby was more of an up & comer, and lacked a little experience to race from the gun as she does and pull it off. This year, though, she's an older, stronger, and more experienced version of herself. At the same time, while I admire Tuohy's competitiveness, I think she has gone in a little bit of the opposite direction. Last year, she was in complete control the whole season and could really turn it on whenever she wanted. This year, she's still great, just not quite as dominant (or confident looking). Tuohy had a few indoor meets that were great, but then she struggled a bit (as we know). Then, of course, there is Nuttycombe, which anyone can say whatever they want (like Tuohy playing 4-D chess to allow Valby to win so convincingly (lol)), but these theories are tenuous at best. So, because they were so close last year, and because they have been going in separate directions, I think Vaby is going to win going away. The race will be for 2nd place (in which there will be 3 or 4 contenders for the spot, 20+ seconds back from Valby). Tuohy has had a great career HS and collegiate career. She deserves so much credit for what she has been able to achieve, and possibly following up her victory with a 2nd or 3rd place is nothing to be ashamed of at all. She is a great competitor. However, she simply does not have the talent that Valby has.

Assuming Valby can keep healthy and gain a little more durability to enable her to run a little more (though she seems to be able to make the low mileage work pretty well so far), she'll have a competitive pro career. As great as Tuohy has been, the end of college is basically the end for her.

So you're saying you're against anti-Nazi, which means you're anti-Ukraine, which means you're pro-Russia, which means you're racist against people of color and an enemy of the glorious Democrat party.

What did I say that you disagree with?

That's a long post to say Valby will win and kt won't have a pro career

How about they both make nice pro careers? After all we now have Monson and Cranny and Schweitzer.

Even if all your calculations are true, Valby has only proven to have 12 sec on Tuohy. Kt will also be the cl

osest competitor. Many feel that simply in a diff race on a diff day that 12 seconds doesn't mean much, so it can still be a very competitive race.

It's a bit melodramatic to declare that someone's career is "at an end" if they stagnate or even regress for 6 months. Very typical Letsrun.

Look at Elly Henes. She ran a disappointing 15:08 (for her), and then PR'd at month later at 14:47.

Weini Kelarmti bombed the DL final at 15:25, whereas she ran 8:32/14:52 a few months earlier. Is her career over? Lol no.

While I might agree that Tuohy has had struggles recently, and Valby may likely win, that says nothing about Tuohy's long term potential.

H'm. She spotted Valby a 15 second lead and overtook her in the final 2K. Cannot dance around that.

Valby will win she'll go out hard and Tuohy will sit back in the chase pack, get top 10 and say she was running for the team title. But it was obvious when Tuohy had pulled out of the 5k last year to avoid losing to PV, Valby was in her head already. Obviously Tuohy had a great collegiate career, but this season the championship head to head will write a story. If KT does win, she played it smart. Losing to PV at the irrelevant early season meet could turn out to be a genius strategy if she does win.

Call me Jim Lahey I am the liquor, baby.

Other than defeating Valby basically every time, sure. And running faster than her.

while it would be nice for Tuohy to win what will probably be her last NCAA race, I think Valby has taken it to another level this year.

Her win at Nuttucombe can't be understated. She beat Tuohy by 12 seconds on a cold, rainy, hilly course. it's the kind of conditions Tuohy normally thrives but Valby simply dominated.

I think the championship race will be a carbon copy. Valby is gonna charge out to the lead and floor it the entire race while Tuohy, Chimel and a few others chase her.

the only thing that can stop Valby from winning is Valby having an off day or forgetting to run the tangents again.

another thing to remember is as competitive as Tuohy is, she's all about the team race. If it's close, and I suspect it will be, Tuohy is not gonna risk 2nd place to chase Valby down, blow up, and finish 6th.

If Tuohy did not try that crazy double the 5000m title was in the bag.

Like last year? Sorry but I did not drink the Kool Aid about Valby suddenly ascending to a new level. Does not mean she cannot win. Just when she rins 15:15 or thereabouts what will the excuse be?

I forgot to mention that I think it will be very helpful for Valby to be able to go and experience the championships with her team! She and the team looked like they were having so much fun! This will help her not think too much about the race and keep it a little lighter... a helpful symbiotic relationship because she helps them, too!

Valby and Tuohy are exactly the running versions of Livvy Dunne and Katelynn Ohashi in the collegiate gymnastics world (except Valby is better in the running version).

I have used a lot of words, but apparently it is lost on people (but maybe not) that I'm mocking these types of threads. Trying to guess in advance who is going to win between 2 great runners or who is more likely to go on run as a pro is utterly pointless. Every single post can be summed up with simply "I like Valby, and I hope she wins," or "I like Tuohy, and I hope she wins." The incessant babbling beyond that for post after post is simply posters confirming for themselves why they prefer the one over the other.

“In the bag?” Probably not in that heat.

Great White Hope used to be a common phrase on letsrun in the early 2000s, often used to describe Alan Webb or Galen in his younger years.

As a non white American, it made me very aware of just how overtly racist the distance running community was. They weren't looking for an American to challenge--they were looking for a scrappy white hero. And their brown skinned competitors weren't known by their names despite how accomplished they were. They weren't even known by their individual countries. Just African invaders taking over their precious sport.

In my graduating year the American distance runner, Matt Centrowitz, who would win gold at the Olympics taking down the Africans, Asians and Europeans alike in the process, was not white.

Anyways I'm glad it's getting pushback here. It's not a great post when you include "great white hope" and then start talking about genetics. I'm not convinced that long legs necessarily contributes to being a faster distance runner. And since most of the genetics conversation is weird speculation anyways (Vo2 max, legs to body ratio, white ancestry etc) It's better to leave it out.

Valby won't run steeple either. She's too injury prone.