I agree depending on the course. But I think you’re even underestimating the time. Give me less than that perhaps even 1 year of dedicated training and I think the top 10k person would place really, really well at say Western States.
It's better to use a marathon time and extrapolate up to ultras. Why?
10km is more like 5km and more reliant on a super high Vo2max and still has some anaerobic component to it (be it only like 2-3%).
However, Marathons are going to have more in common with ultras as they are almost 100% entirely aerobic-based. Fuel and fluid ingestion during the race is also usually required for optimal performance much like an ultra. Not much difference between 26.2 miles and a 50km, right?! Even a runnable 100-miler like WS that goes in 14-15 hours is still fairly in line with a marathon in terms of aerobic demands in a lot of ways.
Finally, those that have shown good potential in a marathon already (not all fast 10km runners!), likely demonstrate decent Running Economy around marathon pace. And within the spectrum of Running Economy speeds, marathon race pace is still closer to any ultramarathon race pace (compared to 10km race pace which is closer to 5km pace). So Running Economy may not be as good for a super dialed and super speedy 5km and 10km runner compared to a more dialed marathoner.
Not all great 5km runners do well at the marathon. And not all great marathoners would totally crush ultras (I obviously think most would and could)....so there is still a really high correlation with success given the aerobic demands behind each respective event. Marathons have more in common with ultras though and the 10km has way more in common with the 5km and half marathon.
Every Top 10k runner that has moved up to the Marathon has been at least very good, Ben True, Molly Huddle, and Martin Hehir are a few that come to mind. Steve Monaghetti was a 10k guy who ran a 2:11 without any specific training.
This idea that the marathon is some special distance is nonsense.
its all speculation but in my opinion if you took the current top 10k runners in the world and had them go all in on ultra training for 3-4 years they would trounce every ultra record.
its not diminishing anyones accomplishments, but its easy to see how the talent pool is watered down in ultras from the shorter distances.
If you took the current top cross country skiers in the world and had them go all in on ultra training for 6 months, they would actually be among the top in mountain running, short and long. I'd have much more confidence in them at 6 months than the top 10K guys in 3-4 years.
You don't just "have them go all in on ultra training". That's a theoretical on message boards that never has happened in real life. Mindset is key. Lots of fast road/track runners over the years have dabbled in mountain ultras, and few do more than a race or two. For example, what ever happened to Brian Sell? TThe training is just foreign to them, and they go in unprepared or don't stick with it. Just from this forum, you can tell road/track runners have hangups and preconceptions about running too much/fast downhill, running too much mileage, running too many hours per week, running not enough flat. The reality is they quickly realize how different it is to what they actually do, and they get discouraged and quit pretty quickly. You need to be a mountain sports person to be loving the training and chose to live in a mountain town/city. I'd take the young hardcore ski bums/climbers (Ueli Steck type alpinists) over 10K runners.
Courtney is from cross country skiing - she trained 4 hours a day in high school. Sophia Laukli is a full time skier, doing mountain running on skiing training. Kilian, son of a ski guide. Top cross country skiers (and the smaller skimo discipline) are already training 4+ hours a day with an emphasis on vert.
Top orienteers have had actual success crossing over into mountain running because they are mountain athletes. Their idea of fun is running fast in the woods/terrain and in the mountains and a lot of them are also cross country skiers (and race ski orienteering) so have that training background too.
If you took all the prize money of every ultra for the next 3 years and gave it to Patrick Mahomes. In exchange he has to quit his QB job and contract (I know, I know, he’d still be taking such a giant pay cut it’s stupid to consider), he would be able to destroy ever single record in trail. Just name the race.
This is why no serious athletes go for ultras. We all know you go to the NFL, NBA, MLB, Pro Soccer, NHL, Track and Field, Corn Hole, ultras. In that order.
its all speculation but in my opinion if you took the current top 10k runners in the world and had them go all in on ultra training for 3-4 years they would trounce every ultra record.
its not diminishing anyones accomplishments, but its easy to see how the talent pool is watered down in ultras from the shorter distances.
If you took the current top cross country skiers in the world and had them go all in on ultra training for 6 months, they would actually be among the top in mountain running, short and long. I'd have much more confidence in them at 6 months than the top 10K guys in 3-4 years.
You don't just "have them go all in on ultra training". That's a theoretical on message boards that never has happened in real life. Mindset is key. Lots of fast road/track runners over the years have dabbled in mountain ultras, and few do more than a race or two. For example, what ever happened to Brian Sell? TThe training is just foreign to them, and they go in unprepared or don't stick with it. Just from this forum, you can tell road/track runners have hangups and preconceptions about running too much/fast downhill, running too much mileage, running too many hours per week, running not enough flat. The reality is they quickly realize how different it is to what they actually do, and they get discouraged and quit pretty quickly. You need to be a mountain sports person to be loving the training and chose to live in a mountain town/city. I'd take the young hardcore ski bums/climbers (Ueli Steck type alpinists) over 10K runners.
Courtney is from cross country skiing - she trained 4 hours a day in high school. Sophia Laukli is a full time skier, doing mountain running on skiing training. Kilian, son of a ski guide. Top cross country skiers (and the smaller skimo discipline) are already training 4+ hours a day with an emphasis on vert.
Top orienteers have had actual success crossing over into mountain running because they are mountain athletes. Their idea of fun is running fast in the woods/terrain and in the mountains and a lot of them are also cross country skiers (and race ski orienteering) so have that training background too.
Possibly but I’ve seen cross countries skiers get injured pretty easily starting ultra running. Same with elite cyclists. I’ll take them at a VK race though with no running training over any average ultra runner though right away.
Why don't you bring your "athleticism" to Mt Blanc and see how easy it is to run and descend 30,000 vertical feet?? Just to illustrate the popularity and enthusiasm the fans in Europe, look at the picture of the finish line this year. ...Thousands of fans, ten deep for miles. Enough to fill Hayward stadium 10x over. (Which Track fans have yet to fill once since reopening) T&F is flailing but UTMB & Hard Rock keep growing in popularity with runners and fans. ... Laughable that LRC dooshes who never broke 60 seconds for 400 meters in their lifetime think that UTMB is not an athletic endeavor. Most couldn't even handle a kilometer of descending without tripping on their uncoordinated selves.
Yes, it is hard to understand until one experiences this first hand.
People on here have no idea how much money one can make as a sponsored pro ultra-mountain runner and how switching from being a 2:08 or 2:28 road marathoner is can be very lucrative in this regard. Part of it is the social media attention too.
....
My main point: With top sponsored ultra-trail runners you see a lot that have (or could have) run solid marathon road times. It's all aerobic fitness based still.
Come on Sage, get f****g real here. You're a sponsored pro ultra-mountain runner and have done nothing but complain about finances, about how you can't afford health insurance, about how one ER trip obliterated your savings, you're living in a run-down studio with a window unit AC. If you need to survive by shilling pube trimmers and vegan wafels and whatever other trinkets someone will pay you to promote (with no benefits, retirement, PTO), is that your idea of "lucrative"? How f****g old are you?
Come on Sage, get f****g real here. You're a sponsored pro ultra-mountain runner and have done nothing but complain about finances, about how you can't afford health insurance, about how one ER trip obliterated your savings, you're living in a run-down studio with a window unit AC. If you need to survive by shilling pube trimmers and vegan wafels and whatever other trinkets someone will pay you to promote (with no benefits, retirement, PTO), is that your idea of "lucrative"? How f****g old are you?
This guy is going to fell like a total idiot when he learns about the fire.
Come on Sage, get f****g real here. You're a sponsored pro ultra-mountain runner and have done nothing but complain about finances, about how you can't afford health insurance, about how one ER trip obliterated your savings, you're living in a run-down studio with a window unit AC. If you need to survive by shilling pube trimmers and vegan wafels and whatever other trinkets someone will pay you to promote (with no benefits, retirement, PTO), is that your idea of "lucrative"? How f****g old are you?
Technically, I was a wall-unit AC. But alas, I am no more. 🔥 Thank you for keeping my memory alive.👻
Every 10k or Marathon elite runner is welcome at any ultra race. They can show up and run and we can see what happens. Everything else is just BS talk. You can always only race against the people who show up.
Come on Sage, get f****g real here. You're a sponsored pro ultra-mountain runner and have done nothing but complain about finances, about how you can't afford health insurance, about how one ER trip obliterated your savings, you're living in a run-down studio with a window unit AC. If you need to survive by shilling pube trimmers and vegan wafels and whatever other trinkets someone will pay you to promote (with no benefits, retirement, PTO), is that your idea of "lucrative"? How f****g old are you?
This is golden! And here is the reality of things:
We recently conducted a survey aimed to collect data from numerous professional runners from around the globe. This anonymous survey was filled out by nearly 200 athletes and was designed to gain insight into some key issues...
its all speculation but in my opinion if you took the current top 10k runners in the world and had them go all in on ultra training for 3-4 years they would trounce every ultra record.
its not diminishing anyones accomplishments, but its easy to see how the talent pool is watered down in ultras from the shorter distances.
If you took the current top cross country skiers in the world and had them go all in on ultra training for 6 months, they would actually be among the top in mountain running, short and long. I'd have much more confidence in them at 6 months than the top 10K guys in 3-4 years.
You don't just "have them go all in on ultra training". That's a theoretical on message boards that never has happened in real life. Mindset is key. Lots of fast road/track runners over the years have dabbled in mountain ultras, and few do more than a race or two. For example, what ever happened to Brian Sell? TThe training is just foreign to them, and they go in unprepared or don't stick with it. Just from this forum, you can tell road/track runners have hangups and preconceptions about running too much/fast downhill, running too much mileage, running too many hours per week, running not enough flat. The reality is they quickly realize how different it is to what they actually do, and they get discouraged and quit pretty quickly. You need to be a mountain sports person to be loving the training and chose to live in a mountain town/city. I'd take the young hardcore ski bums/climbers (Ueli Steck type alpinists) over 10K runners.
Courtney is from cross country skiing - she trained 4 hours a day in high school. Sophia Laukli is a full time skier, doing mountain running on skiing training. Kilian, son of a ski guide. Top cross country skiers (and the smaller skimo discipline) are already training 4+ hours a day with an emphasis on vert.
Top orienteers have had actual success crossing over into mountain running because they are mountain athletes. Their idea of fun is running fast in the woods/terrain and in the mountains and a lot of them are also cross country skiers (and race ski orienteering) so have that training background too.
I have already commented my thoughts on Ultras having won an ultra-marathon national championship some years ago knowing it was not a big deal that I did. That being said you should not compare athletes from non-impact endurance sports to runners. It would be like saying that bike racers would make better ultra marathon runners. After all, they are racing for 5 hours a day in the Tour De France. Maybe some would be good, maybe they would not. What happened to Brian Sell? He went to dental school and gave up running. He was pretty clear that was his intention after the Olympics. The guy was easily running 160+ miles per week. Do you think an ultra would have been difficult for him?
What happened to Brian Sell? He went to dental school and gave up running. He was pretty clear that was his intention after the Olympics. The guy was easily running 160+ miles per week. Do you think an ultra would have been difficult for him?
Which kind of ultra? Comrades he would've probably done great in. Something more mountainous on single track like CCC, that would be a huge question mark.
What happened to Brian Sell? He went to dental school and gave up running. He was pretty clear that was his intention after the Olympics. The guy was easily running 160+ miles per week. Do you think an ultra would have been difficult for him?
Brian Sell like many others where totally done after there marathon career. There is nothing left in the tank. Could he have done, one last ultramarathon like Alberto Salazar? Maybe, but not much more.
What happened to Brian Sell? He went to dental school and gave up running. He was pretty clear that was his intention after the Olympics. The guy was easily running 160+ miles per week. Do you think an ultra would have been difficult for him?
Which kind of ultra? Comrades he would've probably done great in. Something more mountainous on single track like CCC, that would be a huge question mark.
Don't ask too difficult questions. Most Letsrun dorks can't tell the difference.
Which kind of ultra? Comrades he would've probably done great in. Something more mountainous on single track like CCC, that would be a huge question mark.
Don't ask too difficult questions. Most Letsrun dorks can't tell the difference.
And yet the guy you are slinging mud at is somewhat of an expert in the sport.
The thing I have not mentioned is that every time I competed in an ultra- including the competitive ones there was a very small percentage of runners that cared about who won, the accuracy of the course, their place, etc... They were there for the experience with others which I thought was pretty cool but not at all a competitive atmosphere.
Even if a guy like Brian Sell ran poorly in an Ultra he would have still been way better than the top guys now.
If you took the current top cross country skiers in the world and had them go all in on ultra training for 6 months, they would actually be among the top in mountain running, short and long. I'd have much more confidence in them at 6 months than the top 10K guys in 3-4 years.
You don't just "have them go all in on ultra training". That's a theoretical on message boards that never has happened in real life. Mindset is key. Lots of fast road/track runners over the years have dabbled in mountain ultras, and few do more than a race or two. For example, what ever happened to Brian Sell? TThe training is just foreign to them, and they go in unprepared or don't stick with it. Just from this forum, you can tell road/track runners have hangups and preconceptions about running too much/fast downhill, running too much mileage, running too many hours per week, running not enough flat. The reality is they quickly realize how different it is to what they actually do, and they get discouraged and quit pretty quickly. You need to be a mountain sports person to be loving the training and chose to live in a mountain town/city. I'd take the young hardcore ski bums/climbers (Ueli Steck type alpinists) over 10K runners.
Courtney is from cross country skiing - she trained 4 hours a day in high school. Sophia Laukli is a full time skier, doing mountain running on skiing training. Kilian, son of a ski guide. Top cross country skiers (and the smaller skimo discipline) are already training 4+ hours a day with an emphasis on vert.
Top orienteers have had actual success crossing over into mountain running because they are mountain athletes. Their idea of fun is running fast in the woods/terrain and in the mountains and a lot of them are also cross country skiers (and race ski orienteering) so have that training background too.
I have already commented my thoughts on Ultras having won an ultra-marathon national championship some years ago knowing it was not a big deal that I did. That being said you should not compare athletes from non-impact endurance sports to runners. It would be like saying that bike racers would make better ultra marathon runners. After all, they are racing for 5 hours a day in the Tour De France. Maybe some would be good, maybe they would not. What happened to Brian Sell? He went to dental school and gave up running. He was pretty clear that was his intention after the Olympics. The guy was easily running 160+ miles per week. Do you think an ultra would have been difficult for him?
Like Bubba said, my sense was Brian Sell was totally done. Kara Goucher ran one trail ultra but not that competitively (also seemed done) before getting diagnosed with runner's dystonia a few years later. We know the US ultra championships are not a big deal, especially if they are on the road. But you can also say the same for most of the US sub-ultra road race championships at somewhat obscure distances like 20K(?). The same isn't true for the big mountain races in Europe. They are competitive and have a wider audience.
Bike racers can make good mountain ultra runners. Emma Pooley was a World Champion and many-time medalist at Worlds, plus an Olympic silver medalist in cycling. She's 40, but managed 9th at Sierre Zinal this year, just behind Allie McLaughlin. She was 3rd at Sierre Zinal in 2020. She led UTMB in the early kms just last week before imploding. I don't see any top-level track runners switch over to mountain ultras after retirement from her main sport like she has.
I will remind you that a 20k can not by definition be an Ultra Marathon. But you are the expert?
You aren't reminding me of anything. I said that many of those USATF championships on the road, including those that are sub-ultra like the 20K, are obscure.
I will remind you that a 20k can not by definition be an Ultra Marathon. But you are the expert?
You aren't reminding me of anything. I said that many of those USATF championships on the road, including those that are sub-ultra like the 20K, are obscure.
Yes, but that is not the discussion.
If it was, I would tell you that the USATF national championship for the 20k is a good example of an event that is WAY more competitive than any Ultra Marathon race in the world since you are the one that brought it up.
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