When will Ethiopians understand that you don't beat 1500 runners in a 13:15 min race ?

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

high school xc coach wrote:

mentally, these guys know, that if they push it near a PB pace, there is at least a 50% chance they will break, and not even be in the hunt during the last few laps, while they are confident they can give themselves a chance to be in mix running it tactically.

so they are killing their shot at gold but giving a better shot at one of the other medals. you could call it cowardice

That's a fair point but...

A 12.42 5000m is average 61 seconds a lap (60.96) and there 12.5 of them.

The opening 1600m of that final was 4.24 (obviously averaging 66's), the next 1600 was 4.20 (65's), the 3rd 1600m 4.00 (60's) - and a lot of that was because the final 400m of that 1600m segment was 54.18 seconds

So okay you are right - it's a massive risk to go out and try and hammer 61's from the gun - especially no wavelight to make sure your rhythm is perfect and you never run a single 100m too fast or too slow. But why and how after an opening 1600 of 4.24 are you not able to at a minimum start running close to that kind of pace (61.0) given that you are capable of that for the full distance and almost 1/3 of that is already run and run at a pace not even close to that speed? Even worse is how the field got to 3200m in 8.44 (!!!!!) and couldn't muster any better than 2.35.4 for that next 1000m (62.1 pace!)

Honestly it's inexplicable and bizarre. Even if we attribute the 10000m Aregawi ran to his inability to lift the pace, what are the excuses for Kejelcha and Gebrhiwet who only ran the 5000? Is it possible both of them had just insanely off days and couldn't physically do so? They still ran under 54 for the final lap themselves so that shows there was something there on the day right? I think the answer is quite simply these guys are deers in the headlights when it comes to this particular level of racing without a nice little LED light telling how to run. And if you don't subscribe to that then the only plausible explanation left is that they are just stupid.

Forgotpassword wrote:

ex-runner wrote:

Jakob is better at the 5k than the 1500.

He won the 5k because he's as strong as anyone else but has more speed than that field, which incidentally is the same reason he lost the 1500 (last year and this year).

Jakob needs to accept his weaknesses and work on them if he wants to do the double next year. Claiming he has a mysterious virus which impacts his 1500 but not 5k for the third year in a row would probably become tiresome.

I don't think his claim was without merit. Watching him in the earlier parts of the year and comparing him to how he looked at Worlds, something was definitely off. Jakob's form isn't the most graceful, but he looked strained and tired coming through the rounds. But if you look at his 2 mile WB, he looked relaxed and strong. So I buy that he was either slightly sick or well off peak at Budapest. Because running that 2 mile made him the heavy favorite for both.

If he had that form/fitness coming into Budapest, he should have easily crushed the fields. But he got outkicked in 1500 and won the 5000 by the skin of his teeth. He won the 5000 in a slightly faster time than last year, but he had to run down Katir this time instead of taking over with about two laps to go and holding onto the lead. He was gifted the opportunity to win because the field let the pace lag.

I do agree though that if he fumbles the 1500/5000 double next year though, then he has to own it and admit he isn't good enough to join the air of Nurmi, El Guerrouj, and (to a slight lesser extent) Lagat. And probably give up the 1500 for good after 2025.

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

NBCistrash wrote:

Truly, your inability do come to logical conclusions besed on decades of evidence amazes me. Simply put, the reason that the best runners in the world don't run their best pace is because it's to hard mentally and far too risky. I know this because for the past decade, almost all, if not all championship 5 and 10ks have all come down to a final lap or final 1000 meters. If running at PR pace was doable for these top athletes, they would do it. The fact that no champions ever win by running sub 12:50 pace is proof that its not a sound strategy. Its true that Kipkurui made an rookie mistake, but Yomif Kejelcha would have suffered the same fate had he tried what Kipkurui tried. Your experience running 25 minute 5ks on JV does not compare to all time greats who have run 12:41.

Can you read dude?

Never once did I suggest that these guys go out and run their max pace from the gun.

But if a runner X is able to average 61 seconds a lap for a full 12.5, how is it possible that after running 6 or 7 laps at 64 seconds - clearly a markedly different energy cost, that they can't increase that pace for the remaining 5.5 laps to at a very minimum the pace they are capable running twice the distance at?

Are you mentally challenged? You can't see this?

I know I am right because we have seen it so many times before and I'll give you just one example. In 1997 Daniel Komen was a 12.39 runner so capable of running 60.7 seconds a lap at his absolute best. The 97 world 5000m final went out in 8.33 for the first 2 miles which clearly was very easy for Komen as he then was able to run the next 1600m in 4.04.02 - a "mile" with splits even slower than his average WR pace. In doing so he effectively ended any chance the "kickers" had in the race (notably Baumann and Bitok).

So why after an even considerably slower opening 2 miles, were none of the Ethiopians with comparable times to Komen over 5000m, able to not lift the pace to that level? You don't think those low 12.40 guys are physically capable of running a 4.00 1600m after running 8.13 for the opening 3000M?!!

You might be surprised at what my level of competitive running and involvement in the sport was my friend. Not everyone that posts here is some 25min 5000m "JV" runner - not that this is a requisite for knowledge in the sport so congrats on being a pretentious a--hole as well as having a complete lack of knowledge and understanding yourself. This discussion is over.

NBCistrash wrote:

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

Can you read dude?

Never once did I suggest that these guys go out and run their max pace from the gun.

But if a runner X is able to average 61 seconds a lap for a full 12.5, how is it possible that after running 6 or 7 laps at 64 seconds - clearly a markedly different energy cost, that they can't increase that pace for the remaining 5.5 laps to at a very minimum the pace they are capable running twice the distance at?

Are you mentally challenged? You can't see this?

I know I am right because we have seen it so many times before and I'll give you just one example. In 1997 Daniel Komen was a 12.39 runner so capable of running 60.7 seconds a lap at his absolute best. The 97 world 5000m final went out in 8.33 for the first 2 miles which clearly was very easy for Komen as he then was able to run the next 1600m in 4.04.02 - a "mile" with splits even slower than his average WR pace. In doing so he effectively ended any chance the "kickers" had in the race (notably Baumann and Bitok).

So why after an even considerably slower opening 2 miles, were none of the Ethiopians with comparable times to Komen over 5000m, able to not lift the pace to that level? You don't think those low 12.40 guys are physically capable of running a 4.00 1600m after running 8.13 for the opening 3000M?!!

You might be surprised at what my level of competitive running and involvement in the sport was my friend. Not everyone that posts here is some 25min 5000m "JV" runner - not that this is a requisite for knowledge in the sport so congrats on being a pretentious a--hole as well as having a complete lack of knowledge and understanding yourself. This discussion is over.

Its also funny that your comparing todays runners to Danial Komen. No runner in the 5k field last week will be anything close to Danial Komen, except maybe Jakob if he stays healthy and can continue his form.

You can look at the strategy from the 5k and say wow, these Ethiopians and Kenyans must be lazy and not care about medaling. Or you can look at what they did last week, and by and large have done for the past decade, and come to the logical conclusion that these athletes are as competitive as any, but that they are faced with the dilemma of either going out and almost inevitably burning up, or hoping that their kick is strong enough to medal.

You can look at todays athletes and say they make poor discussions, but that logic ignores that by and large, just about everyone who makes a mid-race move in the 5k ends up dusted by the pack.

Its the same reason Jakob didn't try to run low 3:28 to win the 1500 - running such fast times is simply not possible without paces who will sacrifice their race for one winner. Your treating 12:42 fitness as a silver bullet, in the same way that most fans treated Jakob's 3:27.14 form. Quit saying that such fast races can be done without pacers. and similarly, quit saying that its that simple to increase pace to 12:45. If it was possible, it would be done already. they should have picked up the pace from 13:30s, but its unrealistic to assume they could increase so fast that they drop the field.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

600yd/600m man wrote:

You are doubling down but you seem to have no understanding of 5K racing.

I stated on here for weeks, The Field needed to average 62 seconds per lap or faster for the first ten laps.

You observed, gentlemen from Ethiopia failed to do what I recommended then you went too far and concluded the gentlemen from Ethiopia were stupid.

I knew racing 62 seconds per lap and splitting 4000m, 10:20 or faster had risks. I knew the alternative meant Olympic 5000m gold, unlikely. I never was going to conclude the gentlemen from Ethiopia were stupid for not executing sub-10:20 4000m split.

You listed two examples, pushing the pace resulted in international gold 5000m. Now list all the men who lead international 5000m races, the first 2000m or 3000m who did not receive medals.

Nobody is suggesting they lead out the first 2000 or even 3000. What has been suggested that after a relatively easy first 3k they push and harder than they did so that the top 4 of the race weren’t all able to easily hang on and kick sub-53.. With 3 of them in the field, this is not that Herculean a task. And considering no Ethiopian has finished better than 5th the last 3 championships, it’s evident their default of running only moderately hard until 500 to go and then trusting their kicks is not working.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

600yd/600m man wrote:

You are doubling down but you seem to have no understanding of 5K racing.

I stated on here for weeks, The Field needed to average 62 seconds per lap or faster for the first ten laps.

You observed, gentlemen from Ethiopia failed to do what I recommended then you went too far and concluded the gentlemen from Ethiopia were stupid.

I knew racing 62 seconds per lap and splitting 4000m, 10:20 or faster had risks. I knew the alternative meant Olympic 5000m gold, unlikely. I never was going to conclude the gentlemen from Ethiopia were stupid for not executing sub-10:20 4000m split.

You listed two examples, pushing the pace resulted in international gold 5000m. Now list all the men who lead international 5000m races, the first 2000m or 3000m who did not receive medals.

Nobody is suggesting they lead out the first 2000 or even 3000. What has been suggested that after a relatively easy first 3k they push and harder than they did so that the top 4 of the race weren’t all able to easily hang on and kick sub-53.. With 3 of them in the field, this is not that Herculean a task. And considering no Ethiopian has finished better than 5th the last 3 championships, it’s evident their default of running only moderately hard until 500 to go and then trusting their kicks is not working.

600yd/600m man wrote:

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Nobody is suggesting they lead out the first 2000 or even 3000. What has been suggested that after a relatively easy first 3k they push and harder than they did so that the top 4 of the race weren’t all able to easily hang on and kick sub-53.. With 3 of them in the field, this is not that Herculean a task. And considering no Ethiopian has finished better than 5th the last 3 championships, it’s evident their default of running only moderately hard until 500 to go and then trusting their kicks is not working.

What do mean nobody? Are you Salvitore S? Salvitore implied Ethiopian 5000m participants are or were stupid. A 3000m jog followed by a pace increase over the final 5 laps?

Did you read my posts on several threads prior to 5000m final? I gave a reason or reasons why sub-10:20 4000m split was needed. I stated everyone should be uncomfortable so no one could finish much faster than 2:27.50 final 1000m.

I believe a fast first 4000m was needed to defeat J I. I just would not refer to anyone who failed to race a fast first 4000m as stupid.

A three-thousand meter jog followed by a hard 2000m would not have put any of the Ethiopians in said 5000m final in the ballgame.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Joerd wrote:

Sal what is your explanation? You keep demanding that others explain it. I think Kejelcha doesn’t handle the pressure of championships very well. But many great runners have been afflicted with this issue. It doesn’t mean he is stupid or lacking in courage. What is your guess? There was a guy named Mamede who just ran off the track ostensibly due to his mental issues.

His race tactic was to not lead an inch and trust his kick. Whether that was pre-planned or he wimped out on a different one we don't know. It is not like Aregawi or Gebrhiwet who went to the front and just barely did anything with it. That might've been an OK plan that they just did poorly by not pushing hard enough or early enough. Kejelcha was happy to leave it late, and for that we can say he himself might not be dumb but that is a game plan was dumb. It's possible they had a "team plan" and he was expecting a faster pace from his compatriots.

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

Joerd wrote:

Sal what is your explanation? You keep demanding that others explain it. I think Kejelcha doesn’t handle the pressure of championships very well. But many great runners have been afflicted with this issue. It doesn’t mean he is stupid or lacking in courage. What is your guess? There was a guy named Mamede who just ran off the track ostensibly due to his mental issues.

My explanation? My guess? That they all think they can kick and beat a guy like Jakob in that style of race.

And had, I dunno, Eugene 2022 not happened, I guess that would be okay - but they say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results - well how else do you describe Budapest. And it's not just on Kejelcha who clearly races global finals without any understanding of how to win them, it was Gebrhiwet, Aregawi as well. So maybe delusional is a better word? Clueless?