If you are sincere ....I think he was good enough..and did not make the team on this day, you asked. You can be good enough and lose on any given day. I never used the term "lock" or even close regarding his chances. I thought Nuguse was/is clearly the best..Hocker had big game experience and after seeing his prelim, thought he would make it. I thought Kessler would and could make make it, but certainly not a lock, never thought that.
He was good enough. He ran smart. He positioned himself well. But, like you said, off a relatively pedestrian pace, he was, unfortunately, running for fourth place at the end. He was right there and almost looked like he just let it go once the top three got away.
Nevethless, Kessler is one of the biggest talents, at his age, that we have seen in a long time. Fully expect this kid to run sub-3:30 and, with some luck, make the team next year. By 2028, we can no longer call him a kid, and, if he hasn’t made a team, then he’s the second coming of Webb. I don’t expect that though.
Big Hobbs fan here but Hocker ran faster than Hobbs at the same age, won US championships and placed 6th at the olympics compared to Hobbs 6th at USA.
Two additional thoughts: (1) If part of Kessler's issue is tactics/race experience (or lack thereof), it's possible--acknowledging that hindsight is 20-20--that running three road miles since December was too many and that they should, instead, have thrown him into a couple more tight 1500s on a track. His shoe sponsor might be to blame, in part, for any overemphasis on road miles this year (see Atlanta). (2) Given Kessler’s proven capacity for elite times, he might consider practicing becoming more of a frontrunner, especially because his American competitors (e.g. Hocker, but others too) love to kick and are probably faster than Kessler over a final 250. He seemed to have the right idea in the final, tracking Nuguse, and he should arguably build on that and develop the confidence to run from the front, which might also alleviate his apparent anxiety and tactical weakness around getting boxed in.
Two road miles that I know of, one was a sponsor commit.