Can I break 20:00 for a 5k part two Masters??

Day 20, July 8, ‘23
AM(late): 9:17 run.

Rep
Time||Pace||AvgHR/MaxHR||SPM/Lngth||GCT
9:17||7:20/mi||158/164bpm||177/1.25m||233ms

Notes: This was supposed to be another 15min threshold, but cut it short. Cheap Moleskin on blister rolled up. Tightened shoes extra to prevent slippage, but they cut into the tops of my feet.

Shoe: 2-yr old teal VF’s
Post-workout Garmin 5k estimate: 18:55.

Day 20, July 8, ‘23
PM(late): 9x40-up, jog/shuffle recovery

Rep
Time|Pace|AvgHR/MaxHR|SPM/Lngth|GCT|rectime
24.38s|5:36/mi|143/155bpm|197/1.37m|179ms|2:31
24.67|5:43/mi|138/150bpm|191/1.42m|189ms|2:32
24.81|5:39/mi|143/153bpm|191/1.42m|173ms|2:40
25.59|5:33/mi|142/154bpm|187/1.42m|185ms|2:40
24.48|5:27/mi|141/153bpm|192/1.40m|174ms|2:55
25.04|5:31/mi|138/151bpm|187/1.44m|188ms|2:43
24.62|5:46/mi|143/155bpm|190/1.45m|176ms|3:06
24.15|5:10/mi|143/154bpm|196/1.48m|168ms|2:33
24.58|5:37/mi|139/155bpm|195/1.45m|182ms|end

Notes: These had comparable specs to the 7x30sec ‘Easier Reps’ on Day 16.

Shoe: GoRazor
Post-workout Garmin 5k estimate: 18:56.

Day 21, July 9, ‘23
Off.

Day 22, July 10, ‘23
PM: ‘Slower-methodical’ 10xHill-repeats (like Day 17).
Notes: Total distance and time covered in 10xHill-repeats (both up and down hill) was 3.0miles, in 36:17.
Shoe: Adidas-plastic
Post-workout Garmin 5k estimate: 19:00.

Day 23, July 11, ‘23
Off.

Day 24, July 12, ‘23
PM: 12x400m, ~2min rest
Ran near sunset.
Temp: ~80degF.
Dew point: 76degF.

Rep
Time|Pace|AvgHR/MaxHR|SPM/Lngth|GCT
1:45.2|7:01/mi|145/154bpm|178/1.27m|227ms
1:41.6|6:41/mi…HR-STRAP CAME LOOSE….
1:43.9|6:52/mi|151/160bpm|179/1.30m|222ms
1:40.2|6:34/mi|151/162bpm|182/1.32m|217ms
1:39.2|6:36/mi|152/163bpm|184/1.32m|216ms
1:39.1|6:34/mi|153/165bpm|183/1.32m|217ms
1:38.6|6:31/mi|154/165bpm|186/1.33m|215ms
1:39.5|6:35/mi|154/165bpm|188/1.30m|218ms
1:39.4|6:37/mi|154/165bpm|187/1.31m|215ms
1:41.8|6:46/mi|152/164bpm|185/1.27m|218ms
1:41.7|6:42/mi|153/162bpm|182/1.31m|220ms
1:42.9|6:45/mi|152/162bpm|184/1.29m|221ms

Notes: After comparing to workout-specs from Day 14, it seems a bit strange how much today’s post-workout 5k estimate was lowered. Today’s workout got tuff, and the Reps were a bit slower than Day 14, although there were 12 vs 8, and the air was heavier. But is the Speed6 that much faster than the GoRazor for me?

Shoe: GoRazor.
Post-workout Garmin 5k estimate: 18:45.

Would you be happy with sub-22:00? You are definitely ready for that. Is there a parkun near you? It's time to for some 95%-100% efforts to establish a real baseline for training. The Garmin algorithm isn't helping.

Are you sensing something, like maybe I better jump into a race before something breaks and the show is over, lol?

Here is my Total Weekly Running Mileage for 2023 to date:
Jan 1-7……………………….0 miles
Jan 8-14…………………….0 miles
Jan 15-21……………………0 miles
Jan 22-28…………………..0 miles
Jan 29-Feb 4..…………...0 miles
Feb 5-11……………………..0 miles
Feb 12-18……………………0 miles
Feb 19-25…………………..0 miles
Feb 26-Mar 4…………..4.2 miles
Mar 5-11…………………….0 miles
Mar 12-18………………...7.0 miles
Mar 19-25………………..2.1 miles
Mar 26-Apr 1……………..0 miles
Apr 2-8………….………..11.2 miles
Apr 9-15……………..…..17.4 miles
Apr 16-22…………..……24.1 miles
Apr 23-29…………….…20.1 miles
Apr 30-May 6………….24.2 miles
May 7-13…………………18.4 miles
May 14-20………………….0 miles
May 21-27……………….23.5 miles
May 28-Jun 3……………9.4 miles
Jun 4-10……………………3.2 miles
Jun 11-17………………….23.5 miles
Jun 18-24………………..28.3 miles
Jun 25-Jul 1…………….29.8 miles
Jul 2-Jul 8…………..…..31.7 miles
This week so far………..9.6 miles

That's not much volume. I'm surprised you made it this far without injuring yourself.

Looking at your volume I'll suggest that if you're lucky you might be able to do sub-20 once if you're really lucky and run so hard that you injure yourself in the process and be stuck battling an injury for months trying all sorts of exercises and buying shoes and going nuts. Or with more easy volume you could make yourself strong enough to not have to kill yourself to make that goal.

Thanks for the feedback. I’m currently somewhere around 21:40 fitness. With what you have in mind, how many months would it take to get to 20min (if possible)?

21:40 is a 45.3 VDOT.
20:00 is a 49.8 VDOT, an improvement of 4.5 points.

Per Daniels, from the thread linked below:
"Daniels suggests that having determined your VDOT and the training intensities, you stay at that intensity for at least three weeks, even if a race suggests you have moved to a higher VDOT value. During a period of prolonged training it is safe to increase the VDOT value by a single unit after four to six weeks. However, realistically there will be a point where you have reached what is your maximum VDOT, which is why you should test it regularly."

So optimistically, for a geezer, one VDOT improvement per six weeks would take 27 weeks for a 4.5 point improvement. 27 weeks from now is the first week of January 2024.

The general training plan going forward is:
Two (minimum) ‘Methodical Hill-Rep’ Sessions per week.
Two ’Higher Intensity’ Sessions* per week.
Fast-Rep (~mile pace or faster) Session sprinkled in occasionally.
Continuous Threshold Session sprinkled in occasionally.

*This is per the guidance of Norwegian recommended 2 sessions of 4x4min (i.e., 16min total) per week. They recommend the 4x4min are performed at the (rather huge) target-heart-rate-window of 85-95% HRmax.

Current ‘Training Load’ (per Garmin) is 446; it states 446-988 is ‘Optimal’, and the 4wk ‘LoadFocus’ is ‘Balanced’.

Just to clarify, I’m referring to the “Norwegian Method” as defined by the scientist in the link below, not to be confused with the latest buzzword ‘Norwegian Double Thresholds’.

Day 25, July 13, ‘23
Off (possible low-level chest infection?)

Day 26, July 14, ‘23
Sub-Threshold Zone ‘Bounce’ on Track, 3x12x(81-87%HRmax, i.e.,137-147bpm)R118bpm
Reps were generally <20sec in duration, with ~1min recovery.

Gist of workout is that total of 1.8-2miles (not including rest interval) is covered at ~mile pace, while Heart Rate is cycled but maintained in Sub-Threshold Zone for ~50min.

Ran mid-day. Rainstorm came through with breeze, providing significant cooling effect.
Temp: ~78degF.
Dew point: 71degF.
Shoe: Speed 6
Post-workout Garmin 5k estimate: 18:50.

Day 27, July 15, ‘23
‘Slower-methodical’ 9xHill-repeats.
Total distance and time covered in 9xHill-repeats (both up and down hill) was 2.2miles, in 25:47.
Mid-day, Sunny, Temp 85degF, DewPoint 66degF.
Shoe: GoRazor
Post-workout Garmin 5k estimate: 18:53.
I’m very grateful for what I’ve been able to accomplish so far; the janky foot/ankle seems to be getting better. Although there is some injury risk, the work on the track in lower stack-height shoes has probably helped.

I think Garmin doesn't work on aging masters (being 66 myself). It estimates potential performance on percentage of heart-rate at sub-maximal effort. What that doesn't take into account is that aging legs don't have the power to run as fast as a younger runner with the same VO2 max.

On ways of training:

I ran 19:45 last year (age 65) off a week that was made up of three or four EIM (Easy Interval Method) sessions (3x2000m with 800m easy recovery; 6x1000m with 800m easy recovery; 12x400m with 400m easy recovery; or 16x200m with 200m easy recovery) alternating with recovery runs of 3 or 4 miles at between 7:45 to 8:15, or a little slower if really tired. The 3x2000m I often did as a road session of 10 minutes at around 7 min pace with 5 minutes easy recovery; the 1000m were around 4:15-4:20; 400m in around 90 sec; and 200ms in 42 down to 40 on some quicker ones.

The last four or five weeks, I dropped an EIM session, and switched to race pace sessions, like 5x1000m or 6x800m along with a time trial a couple of weeks out.

Forgot I posted a compressed version of this about a month ago - memory another casualty of age.

I should also mention that I have - quite literally - 50 years of rep/interval training, so this is a case of "doing what comes naturally." In fact EIM feels a lot less painful than a lot of what I used to do 5 or 6 x 1000m; 4 x 1600m or 3 x 2000m at 5k pace, and I don't think I could face those kind of maximal efforts any more.

Firstly, I’m quite grateful for any insight you provide.

“I think Garmin doesn't work on aging masters”

^Although in the past did you say it seemed to be a decent approximation in your case, or has that become less so?

“What that doesn't take into account is that aging legs don't have the power to run as fast as a younger runner with the same VO2 max.”

^I will ruminate on this. As you may suspect, one reason for documenting the dynamic statistics (e.g., SPM, stride length, GCT, etc.) on my track work is to experientially explore some dynamical factors that go into running faster.

I’ve been mulling over various training ideas for going forward, and your training info with specifics was really timely and insightful! Thank you!

I found an error in my Garmin settings that quite likely had a significant effect on why its VO2MAX and 5k estimates have been way too optimistic. On the Forerunner 945, there is maximum Heart Rate setting in the ‘User Profile’. It turns out when you drill down in that menu, there is also a “Sport Heart Rate” setting. The maximum Heart Rate under the “Running” sport was 13 bpm higher than my maximum heart rate!

I have no idea how the “Running” sport maximum Heart Rate got set so erroneously high. In the “Physiological Metrics”, under “Auto Detection”, the MaxHR setting was turned ‘On’, so maybe sometime way back an erroneous high heart rate was detected (for some unknown reason) and the watch took that value to set the ‘Running’ HRmax.

I suspect the too-high HR setting has a lot to do with why the VO2MAX and 5k estimates have been way too optimistic, and after correcting the setting, I’m guessing it may take at least a month of data recording before the Garmin predictions become more in-line with my actual fitness.

To date, at least the trend of the values, rather than their absolute magnitudes, was still of importance to watch, but that will be somewhat meaningless going forward, for some time, now that the correct maximum Heart Rate (for ‘Running’) has been entered.