Well, you're talking about a "chicken-and-egg" situation. Tim was the clear no. 1 and then he got hurt. I'm sure in his mind, he can be the no. 1 again and shouldn't defer to Jakob to lead everything especially if trying to draft isn't ideal for him (it historically has not been). I'd argue he also was better at the frontrunning tactic than Jakob for a couple of reasons:
One, he used to be unafraid to get out and run almost too fast (26/54) for his first lap. We saw sometimes in Monaco/Doha that due to his speed that a very quick opener didn't used to bother him and in fact scared off the field (and Jakob). That can matter in a championship race or loaded DL race where traffic is an issue. You saw last year in the 1500 final Jakob had to work through the pack and run extra distance before getting to the front to pass Kipsang. I can't imagine that helped his finish. Prime Tim could just go straight to the front.
Two, Tim got really good at kicking the last 100 in races from the front. Unlike Jakob, who when he has front run has outlasted guys and built up somewhat of a gap (or has gotten beat a couple of times by Tefera, Wightman etc.), it felt like Tim could typically stave off anyone in the last 100 even if they were right on his heels.
TH, you make the same mistake as many other posters on these boards:
You judge Jakob as if he was a "finished product" already years ago ; here in Doha 2019 where Jakob was just turned 19. It would be similar to judging Colin Sahlman´s entire career upon his performances at the moment.
Jakob is a MUCH stronger and faster runner today where he possibly is close to peaking physically. If Jakob has been in Tokyo 2021 shape in Doha in 2019 he would possibly have beaten Tim. Jakob ran almost a second faster in Tokyo than Tim did in Doha. And Jakob didn´t have as fast a start in Tokyo as Tim had in Doha.
The last year where Tim was able to hold off Jakob in every race was in 2020 where he narrowly beat him in Lausanne and Monaco .
And as stated before: I doubt Tim will come back to his 2018-2020 shape.
And it would perhaps not even be enough to beat Jakob if it true that Jakob has improved from last year (as Filip reportedly has stated recently).
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Unless some of the toprunners of recent years improve significantly I think the only ones with potential to beat Jakob at the moment are Nuguse and Reynold K. Cheruiyot
TH, you make the same mistake as many other posters on these boards:
You judge Jakob as if he was a "finished product" already years ago ; here in Doha 2019 where Jakob was just turned 19. It would be similar to judging Colin Sahlman´s entire career upon his performances at the moment.
Jakob is a MUCH stronger and faster runner today where he possibly is close to peaking physically. If Jakob has been in Tokyo 2021 shape in Doha in 2019 he would possibly have beaten Tim. Jakob ran almost a second faster in Tokyo than Tim did in Doha. And Jakob didn´t have as fast a start in Tokyo as Tim had in Doha.
The last year where Tim was able to hold off Jakob in every race was in 2020 where he narrowly beat him in Lausanne and Monaco .
And as stated before: I doubt Tim will come back to his 2018-2020 shape.
And it would perhaps not even be enough to beat Jakob if it true that Jakob has improved from last year (as Filip reportedly has stated recently).
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Unless some of the toprunners of recent years improve significantly I think the only ones with potential to beat Jakob at the moment are Nuguse and Reynold K. Cheruiyot
So Jakob can improve but Tim can't? Great logic.
21 year olds tend to improve more than 28 year olds coming back from injury.
Of course, if it was a particularly good potato harvest in Kenya this year....
Correct. Henrik Ingebrigtsen is trying to come back from several years of injuries now, including hamstring operation. But main focus is 5000, 1500 goes to fast for him.
TH, you make the same mistake as many other posters on these boards:
You judge Jakob as if he was a "finished product" already years ago ; here in Doha 2019 where Jakob was just turned 19. It would be similar to judging Colin Sahlman´s entire career upon his performances at the moment.
Jakob is a MUCH stronger and faster runner today where he possibly is close to peaking physically. If Jakob has been in Tokyo 2021 shape in Doha in 2019 he would possibly have beaten Tim. Jakob ran almost a second faster in Tokyo than Tim did in Doha. And Jakob didn´t have as fast a start in Tokyo as Tim had in Doha.
The last year where Tim was able to hold off Jakob in every race was in 2020 where he narrowly beat him in Lausanne and Monaco .
And as stated before: I doubt Tim will come back to his 2018-2020 shape.
And it would perhaps not even be enough to beat Jakob if it true that Jakob has improved from last year (as Filip reportedly has stated recently).
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Unless some of the toprunners of recent years improve significantly I think the only ones with potential to beat Jakob at the moment are Nuguse and Reynold K. Cheruiyot
I've never said Jakob is a finished product. I believe most of his improvement is coming at 3K+ at this point however. You say he is much faster and stronger - what evidence do you have for faster? Did he look faster in 2022 than 2021 when he got outkicked by Jake Wightman? This indoor season where he beat Gourley but wasn't separating in the last 100?
You can be dubious about Tim returning to his old peak, I find that totally fair. But my main argument is if it did happen he would be right there challenging Jakob because he showed 3:27 type fitness and had fewer vulnerabilities than last year's Jakob. What I don't find as fair is overrating Jakob's 2021-22 season at 1500. Losing that race to Wightman he has ceded was objectively bad/below him. The loss to Tefera (sure, COVID) was weak. Losing to a banged-up Tim at 2021 Monaco(illness I guess) and after the Olympics...not great. Last year he was in 3:28 shape, and I've noted in this thread the few guys who might achieve closer to that fitness this year than last year when they were injured/sick/not emerging yet. If he's going to want to control the race he has to have a big gap to his competitors, and given his lack of major burst in the last 100 he could be vulnerable to their kick at the finish if he doesn't have a gap.
Correct. Henrik Ingebrigtsen is trying to come back from several years of injuries now, including hamstring operation. But main focus is 5000, 1500 goes to fast for him.
To prove I am an objective observer I will state that I find it very unlikely that Henrik will come back to top level.
Isn´t his last good race his 4:53 in the Impossible Games 2000m in 2020? At that time I thought he had a chance to come back. But he is 32 and he has never run a competive (on the world scene) 5000m time so how should he be able to do it now in the autumn of his career.
hamstring injuries have a tendency of never healing 100%
What? Says who? Where's the data on that?
Lots of great Runners have come back from many different types of injuries. I don't see why a hamstring problem is less solvable than Achilles, calf, knee or back problems.
TH, you make the same mistake as many other posters on these boards:
You judge Jakob as if he was a "finished product" already years ago ; here in Doha 2019 where Jakob was just turned 19. It would be similar to judging Colin Sahlman´s entire career upon his performances at the moment.
Jakob is a MUCH stronger and faster runner today where he possibly is close to peaking physically. If Jakob has been in Tokyo 2021 shape in Doha in 2019 he would possibly have beaten Tim. Jakob ran almost a second faster in Tokyo than Tim did in Doha. And Jakob didn´t have as fast a start in Tokyo as Tim had in Doha.
The last year where Tim was able to hold off Jakob in every race was in 2020 where he narrowly beat him in Lausanne and Monaco .
And as stated before: I doubt Tim will come back to his 2018-2020 shape.
And it would perhaps not even be enough to beat Jakob if it true that Jakob has improved from last year (as Filip reportedly has stated recently).
-------------
Unless some of the toprunners of recent years improve significantly I think the only ones with potential to beat Jakob at the moment are Nuguse and Reynold K. Cheruiyot
I've never said Jakob is a finished product. I believe most of his improvement is coming at 3K+ at this point however. You say he is much faster and stronger - what evidence do you have for faster? Did he look faster in 2022 than 2021 when he got outkicked by Jake Wightman? This indoor season where he beat Gourley but wasn't separating in the last 100?
You can be dubious about Tim returning to his old peak, I find that totally fair. But my main argument is if it did happen he would be right there challenging Jakob because he showed 3:27 type fitness and had fewer vulnerabilities than last year's Jakob. What I don't find as fair is overrating Jakob's 2021-22 season at 1500. Losing that race to Wightman he has ceded was objectively bad/below him. The loss to Tefera (sure, COVID) was weak. Losing to a banged-up Tim at 2021 Monaco(illness I guess) and after the Olympics...not great. Last year he was in 3:28 shape, and I've noted in this thread the few guys who might achieve closer to that fitness this year than last year when they were injured/sick/not emerging yet. If he's going to want to control the race he has to have a big gap to his competitors, and given his lack of major burst in the last 100 he could be vulnerable to their kick at the finish if he doesn't have a gap.
Anyone who’s seen your posts knows you have a bit of a bias against Jakob, and it’s showing here again.
Jakob was undefeated (and honestly unchallenged) in the DL last year. He was clearly at a new level in 2022. Yes, he lost the big one by a quarter of a second after a series of poor tactical decisions, but no one has given him a pass for that as he obviously should have won. The overrated comment doesn’t make sense to me.
You give Tim a pass for having hamstring issues but don’t let Jakob off the hook when he’s sick? What is wrong with him losing once to Tim post-Olympics? Both were clearly exhausted by that point and that final in Zurich is pretty much as close at it gets.
I get that objectiveobserver (lol) goes too hard for Jakob, but you swing too far the other way. And in spite of you never literally claiming he’s a finished product, you’ve effectively said as much as far as the 1500 is concerned.
Anyone who’s seen your posts knows you have a bit of a bias against Jakob, and it’s showing here again.
Jakob was undefeated (and honestly unchallenged) in the DL last year. He was clearly at a new level in 2022. Yes, he lost the big one by a quarter of a second after a series of poor tactical decisions, but no one has given him a pass for that as he obviously should have won. The overrated comment doesn’t make sense to me.
You give Tim a pass for having hamstring issues but don’t let Jakob off the hook when he’s sick? What is wrong with him losing once to Tim post-Olympics? Both were clearly exhausted by that point and that final in Zurich is pretty much as close at it gets.
I get that objectiveobserver (lol) goes too hard for Jakob, but you swing too far the other way. And in spite of you never literally claiming he’s a finished product, you’ve effectively said as much as far as the 1500 is concerned.
My bias is against overrating him as a 1500m runner. You say undefeated and unchallenged on the Diamond League, but how many races were there? 3. And his other two high-level 1500 races were Worlds and Worlds Indoors (both losses). I'd push back on him being at a "new level" because I think it was more Tim was at a new level being in the pack with Hoare and others as opposed to well ahead. I'd like to hear about the races where Wightman, Hoare, Kerr or Tefera beat prime Tim or pushed him to the limit because I sure don't remember them.
Maybe I'm giving Tim a bit of a pass for an off season, but the point is not that I think 2022 Tim could beat him because I don't. It's that if he returns to 2017-2020 Tim he could. And he looks a lot more like that guy so far then last year's guy who was worried about kicking in national races in Kenya.
Maybe Jakob has another level to go to at 1500, but again I'm not sure he does. I don't think Tim does either. He hit his peak in 2018 and kept it through 2020 which was age 22 and he had a slightly later start to the sport. The point is if he can get back to it, and if that would be good enough. And if Nuguse, Reynold Cheruiyot, Wightman or wild cards like Kerr/Kipsang can get to 3:28 fitness if last year level Jakob is so good to not be vulnerable to being outkicked.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Anyone who’s seen your posts knows you have a bit of a bias against Jakob, and it’s showing here again.
Jakob was undefeated (and honestly unchallenged) in the DL last year. He was clearly at a new level in 2022. Yes, he lost the big one by a quarter of a second after a series of poor tactical decisions, but no one has given him a pass for that as he obviously should have won. The overrated comment doesn’t make sense to me.
You give Tim a pass for having hamstring issues but don’t let Jakob off the hook when he’s sick? What is wrong with him losing once to Tim post-Olympics? Both were clearly exhausted by that point and that final in Zurich is pretty much as close at it gets.
I get that objectiveobserver (lol) goes too hard for Jakob, but you swing too far the other way. And in spite of you never literally claiming he’s a finished product, you’ve effectively said as much as far as the 1500 is concerned.
My bias is against overrating him as a 1500m runner. You say undefeated and unchallenged on the Diamond League, but how many races were there? 3. And his other two high-level 1500 races were Worlds and Worlds Indoors (both losses). I'd push back on him being at a "new level" because I think it was more Tim was at a new level being in the pack with Hoare and others as opposed to well ahead. I'd like to hear about the races where Wightman, Hoare, Kerr or Tefera beat prime Tim or pushed him to the limit because I sure don't remember them.
Maybe I'm giving Tim a bit of a pass for an off season, but the point is not that I think 2022 Tim could beat him because I don't. It's that if he returns to 2017-2020 Tim he could. And he looks a lot more like that guy so far then last year's guy who was worried about kicking in national races in Kenya.
Maybe Jakob has another level to go to at 1500, but again I'm not sure he does. I don't think Tim does either. He hit his peak in 2018 and kept it through 2020 which was age 22 and he had a slightly later start to the sport. The point is if he can get back to it, and if that would be good enough. And if Nuguse, Reynold Cheruiyot, Wightman or wild cards like Kerr/Kipsang can get to 3:28 fitness if last year level Jakob is so good to not be vulnerable to being outkicked.
What is remarkable about Jakob over the past few years, is his consistency in the 1500. He ranges from unbeatable to simply outstanding. Like, he can roll out of bed any time and pop at 3:30. When he’s only outstanding, he’s beatable. The rest of the field is sort of the inverse or it’s uncertain. Cheruiyot the younger and Yared have flashed brilliance, but the consistency is unknown. The others can beat Jakob, but they have to having a great day, and more often than not, it’s not happening. Tim used to have that amazing consistency, but not recently. Maybe it’s back, but I doubt it. So based on probabilities, Jakob is always the favorite, including in Rabat, but if he loses, it’s not a shocker. It’s happened before and will happen again, but not often, that is unless the new kids can bring their A game time after time.
What is remarkable about Jakob over the past few years, is his consistency in the 1500. He ranges from unbeatable to simply outstanding. Like, he can roll out of bed any time and pop at 3:30. When he’s only outstanding, he’s beatable. The rest of the field is sort of the inverse or it’s uncertain. Cheruiyot the younger and Yared have flashed brilliance, but the consistency is unknown. The others can beat Jakob, but they have to having a great day, and more often than not, it’s not happening. Tim used to have that amazing consistency, but not recently. Maybe it’s back, but I doubt it. So based on probabilities, Jakob is always the favorite, including in Rabat, but if he loses, it’s not a shocker. It’s happened before and will happen again, but not often, that is unless the new kids can bring their A game time after time.
I think this is fair. Even if Wightman gets healthy (scratching LA is a bad sign), I’d pick Jakob 9/10 times vs him in a paced race and only slightly better for Wightman in a championship one. Ditto Kipsang to me, due to his bad tactics and middle-of-the-road kick. It’s about if Tim can return to his old level (uncertain, but looking more possible now) and if the two new guys (Nuguse/Reynold) can bring it all season.
This post was edited 28 seconds after it was posted.
Stupid question. Jakob Ingebrigtsen has faced the best in the world since he was 15 and he has no fear, esp of Americans. Bet against Jakob Ingebrigtsen at your own peril. Did you not learn anything at the World Champ 5,000 race last year or the 1500m at the Olympic Games. Jakob Ingebrigtsen loves racing and esp "competition" more than anyone outside of prime BBall Michael Jordan. A good watch is Team Ingebrigtsen - Episode 4 Season 5 (Finale) where he talks about competition and another is to really understand his mindset
AW's exclusive interview with two-time European and three-time European indoor champion, Jakob Ingebrigtsen. He opens up about his upbringing in Norway, phil...
Anyone who’s seen your posts knows you have a bit of a bias against Jakob, and it’s showing here again.
Jakob was undefeated (and honestly unchallenged) in the DL last year. He was clearly at a new level in 2022. Yes, he lost the big one by a quarter of a second after a series of poor tactical decisions, but no one has given him a pass for that as he obviously should have won. The overrated comment doesn’t make sense to me.
You give Tim a pass for having hamstring issues but don’t let Jakob off the hook when he’s sick? What is wrong with him losing once to Tim post-Olympics? Both were clearly exhausted by that point and that final in Zurich is pretty much as close at it gets.
I get that objectiveobserver (lol) goes too hard for Jakob, but you swing too far the other way. And in spite of you never literally claiming he’s a finished product, you’ve effectively said as much as far as the 1500 is concerned.
My bias is against overrating him as a 1500m runner. You say undefeated and unchallenged on the Diamond League, but how many races were there? 3. And his other two high-level 1500 races were Worlds and Worlds Indoors (both losses). I'd push back on him being at a "new level" because I think it was more Tim was at a new level being in the pack with Hoare and others as opposed to well ahead. I'd like to hear about the races where Wightman, Hoare, Kerr or Tefera beat prime Tim or pushed him to the limit because I sure don't remember them.
Maybe I'm giving Tim a bit of a pass for an off season, but the point is not that I think 2022 Tim could beat him because I don't. It's that if he returns to 2017-2020 Tim he could. And he looks a lot more like that guy so far then last year's guy who was worried about kicking in national races in Kenya.
Maybe Jakob has another level to go to at 1500, but again I'm not sure he does. I don't think Tim does either. He hit his peak in 2018 and kept it through 2020 which was age 22 and he had a slightly later start to the sport. The point is if he can get back to it, and if that would be good enough. And if Nuguse, Reynold Cheruiyot, Wightman or wild cards like Kerr/Kipsang can get to 3:28 fitness if last year level Jakob is so good to not be vulnerable to being outkicked.
Jakob was the clear number 1 on the circuit last year for the first time in his career. Sure, it was only 4 races, but if he skipped Euros and ran a couple more DLs, how do you think it would have gone? His smallest margin of victory was 0.88 seconds. He ran 3:29 three times and was perfect minus his failure to take 1500 gold.
Look at his 2021 season and tell me he didn’t improve in 2022. Yes, Tim got worse, but Jakob also got better. If you weren’t biased against him you wouldn’t still be harping on his indoor loss to Tefera. You were just defending Katir for racing poorly after Covid but won’t extend the same courtesy to Jakob here?
Asking when prime Tim lost to Wightman et al is really disingenuous. Of course the answer is he didn’t, and the reason is that none of those guys were even close to his level when he was at his best. Kerr hasn’t beaten Jakob since 2019 and Hoare hasn’t ever beaten him, so I don’t even know why you brought them up. Wightman was not a 1:43/3:29 man back then, and of course Tefera’s only win against Jakob was when the latter had Covid.
You don’t need to convince me Tim can challenge Jakob again. I know he can if he can stay healthy and find his old form. Both have shown 3:27 ability (imo) and I look forward to seeing them race each other at their best.
You aren’t sure Jakob can improve anymore at 1500, but then list 5 other guys (most of whom are older than him) you think could run 3:28… What reason do you have for believing that Jakob has peaked and these guys (the oldest of whom will be 29 next month) still have considerable room for improvement?
Jakob was the clear number 1 on the circuit last year for the first time in his career. Sure, it was only 4 races, but if he skipped Euros and ran a couple more DLs, how do you think it would have gone? His smallest margin of victory was 0.88 seconds. He ran 3:29 three times and was perfect minus his failure to take 1500 gold.
Look at his 2021 season and tell me he didn’t improve in 2022. Yes, Tim got worse, but Jakob also got better. If you weren’t biased against him you wouldn’t still be harping on his indoor loss to Tefera. You were just defending Katir for racing poorly after Covid but won’t extend the same courtesy to Jakob here?
Asking when prime Tim lost to Wightman et al is really disingenuous. Of course the answer is he didn’t, and the reason is that none of those guys were even close to his level when he was at his best. Kerr hasn’t beaten Jakob since 2019 and Hoare hasn’t ever beaten him, so I don’t even know why you brought them up. Wightman was not a 1:43/3:29 man back then, and of course Tefera’s only win against Jakob was when the latter had Covid.
You don’t need to convince me Tim can challenge Jakob again. I know he can if he can stay healthy and find his old form. Both have shown 3:27 ability (imo) and I look forward to seeing them race each other at their best.
You aren’t sure Jakob can improve anymore at 1500, but then list 5 other guys (most of whom are older than him) you think could run 3:28… What reason do you have for believing that Jakob has peaked and these guys (the oldest of whom will be 29 next month) still have considerable room for improvement?
3 to be precise. I guess to Jakobs point as he said (paraphrasing) “I can’t be disappointed that my opponents aren’t better.” I think that sums up last years 1500. Hoare was competitive(which meant 3:30.0/3:47.0 fitness) and Jake obviously had his best race at Worlds. Where you see major improvement from 2020-21 Jakob, I see a down year from Tim, a slow-developing year for Katir (who I think we agree is a lesser version of Jakob), and the absence of another major talent like Nuguse/Reynold to appear. I will look at your 3:28 point, but the idea is that Jakob is in 3:28 shape like last year or even 3:27 high shape, that is not unbeatable for a 3:28high-3:29 fitness runner who doesn’t lead and has a good finish.
Edit: I mentioned the youngster Reynold, Nuguse who may be older in age but has spent 1 year treating track as seriously as Jakob has done since he was 14 I think we can agree. Kipsang who I think we just need to see not just chasing paydays (is the ceiling higher or is he more in the Hoare range) and Kerr who is a complete wild card (I don’t expect him to beat Jakob but who knows if everything went right).
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
Jakob was the clear number 1 on the circuit last year for the first time in his career. Sure, it was only 4 races, but if he skipped Euros and ran a couple more DLs, how do you think it would have gone? His smallest margin of victory was 0.88 seconds. He ran 3:29 three times and was perfect minus his failure to take 1500 gold.
Look at his 2021 season and tell me he didn’t improve in 2022. Yes, Tim got worse, but Jakob also got better. If you weren’t biased against him you wouldn’t still be harping on his indoor loss to Tefera. You were just defending Katir for racing poorly after Covid but won’t extend the same courtesy to Jakob here?
Asking when prime Tim lost to Wightman et al is really disingenuous. Of course the answer is he didn’t, and the reason is that none of those guys were even close to his level when he was at his best. Kerr hasn’t beaten Jakob since 2019 and Hoare hasn’t ever beaten him, so I don’t even know why you brought them up. Wightman was not a 1:43/3:29 man back then, and of course Tefera’s only win against Jakob was when the latter had Covid.
You don’t need to convince me Tim can challenge Jakob again. I know he can if he can stay healthy and find his old form. Both have shown 3:27 ability (imo) and I look forward to seeing them race each other at their best.
You aren’t sure Jakob can improve anymore at 1500, but then list 5 other guys (most of whom are older than him) you think could run 3:28… What reason do you have for believing that Jakob has peaked and these guys (the oldest of whom will be 29 next month) still have considerable room for improvement?
3 to be precise. I guess to Jakobs point as he said (paraphrasing) “I can’t be disappointed that my opponents aren’t better.” I think that sums up last years 1500. Hoare was competitive(which meant 3:30.0/3:47.0 fitness) and Jake obviously had his best race at Worlds. Where you see major improvement from 2020-21 Jakob, I see a down year from Tim, a slow-developing year for Katir (who I think we agree is a lesser version of Jakob), and the absence of another major talent like Nuguse/Reynold to appear. I will look at your 3:28 point, but the idea is that Jakob is in 3:28 shape like last year or even 3:27 high shape, that is not unbeatable for a 3:28high-3:29 fitness runner who doesn’t lead and has a good finish.
Sorry to belabor the point, but where are you getting 3? I count 4: Eugene mile, Oslo mile, Lausanne 15, Zurich 15.
You see what you want to see I guess. He didn’t improve his PR, but he looked as strong as I’ve ever seen him last year, even with the unfortunate WC loss. I was really impressed with the way he held his fitness throughout the year, running 3:29-low twice, completely unchallenged, after two championship doubles. I don’t see how you can chalk that up to everyone else getting worse. In my mind there’s no way Jakob was capable of that in 2021.
I don’t have any qualms with you saying he is beatable. I totally agree he can be beaten, whether he improves this year or not, though I obviously believe he’s still on an upward trajectory.
Sorry to belabor the point, but where are you getting 3? I count 4: Eugene mile, Oslo mile, Lausanne 15, Zurich 15.
You see what you want to see I guess. He didn’t improve his PR, but he looked as strong as I’ve ever seen him last year, even with the unfortunate WC loss. I was really impressed with the way he held his fitness throughout the year, running 3:29-low twice, completely unchallenged, after two championship doubles. I don’t see how you can chalk that up to everyone else getting worse. In my mind there’s no way Jakob was capable of that in 2021.
I don’t have any qualms with you saying he is beatable. I totally agree he can be beaten, whether he improves this year or not, though I obviously believe he’s still on an upward trajectory.
Sorry, I kept missing one of those I guess. We should get a good idea of it soon, which will be great to watch. I think the “completely unchallenged” part is where we part ways. I think that is because the A-level guys were missing/not at their best. If your top competition is Oli Hoare/an overraced Kipsang yes you will win easily once the race slips away from the 3:30 range. The competition on the circuit to me looks better and Jakob won’t be disappointed in the competition like last year. I really do think he wants Tim at his best and was disappointed he got the worse Tim we’d seen since 2016.
This post was edited 30 seconds after it was posted.
My bias is against overrating him as a 1500m runner. You say undefeated and unchallenged on the Diamond League, but how many races were there? 3. And his other two high-level 1500 races were Worlds and Worlds Indoors (both losses). I'd push back on him being at a "new level" because I think it was more Tim was at a new level being in the pack with Hoare and others as opposed to well ahead. I'd like to hear about the races where Wightman, Hoare, Kerr or Tefera beat prime Tim or pushed him to the limit because I sure don't remember them.
Maybe I'm giving Tim a bit of a pass for an off season, but the point is not that I think 2022 Tim could beat him because I don't. It's that if he returns to 2017-2020 Tim he could. And he looks a lot more like that guy so far then last year's guy who was worried about kicking in national races in Kenya.
Maybe Jakob has another level to go to at 1500, but again I'm not sure he does. I don't think Tim does either. He hit his peak in 2018 and kept it through 2020 which was age 22 and he had a slightly later start to the sport. The point is if he can get back to it, and if that would be good enough. And if Nuguse, Reynold Cheruiyot, Wightman or wild cards like Kerr/Kipsang can get to 3:28 fitness if last year level Jakob is so good to not be vulnerable to being outkicked.
What is remarkable about Jakob over the past few years, is his consistency in the 1500. He ranges from unbeatable to simply outstanding. Like, he can roll out of bed any time and pop at 3:30. When he’s only outstanding, he’s beatable. The rest of the field is sort of the inverse or it’s uncertain. Cheruiyot the younger and Yared have flashed brilliance, but the consistency is unknown. The others can beat Jakob, but they have to having a great day, and more often than not, it’s not happening. Tim used to have that amazing consistency, but not recently. Maybe it’s back, but I doubt it. So based on probabilities, Jakob is always the favorite, including in Rabat, but if he loses, it’s not a shocker. It’s happened before and will happen again, but not often, that is unless the new kids can bring their A game time after time.
The last time Jakob finished below 2nd in a race above 800m was Doha in 2019. Incredible consistency and he isn't exactly ducking competition
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